PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Election Polls - CA ResultsPolls
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Source: Survey USA (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DObamaDemocratic60%piePoll Date: 2012-02-09
RRomneyRepublican31%Number Polled: 2,088
-Other-0%Margin of Error: 2%
-Undecided-9%Voter Type: Registered

Obama with 60+ against all challengers

 By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) on 2012-02-11 @ 06:54:41

Question:

Poll Demographics

About this Poll

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. 2,400 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 02/08/12 and 02/09/12. All adults were asked the question about same-sex marriage. Of the adults, 2088 were registered to vote in California, and were asked the head-to-head match-up questions for the November general election for President. Of the registered voters, 633 were registered as Republicans, and of the 633 registered Republicans, 479 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in a June 2012 California Primary. Only these likely Republican Primary voters were asked about the June 2012 primary. This research was conducted with blended sample, multi-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of adults, 72% of registered voters, 84% of likely Republican primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Those respondents unreachable on a home telephone (29% of adults, 28% of registered voters, 16% of likely Republican Primary voters), were shown a visual questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. In these results, cell-phone respondents are a critical ingredient. Santorum leads Romney by 4 points among those interviewed on a home phone, but Romney leads Santorum by 27 points among those unreachable on a home phone. When the two groups are proportionally blended, it's Romney 33%, Santorum 31%, as reported here. Separately, on the November head-to-head match-ups, Obama's lead is 15 to 29 points larger among voters unreachable on a home telephone than it is among voters reachable on a home telephone.

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