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Source: Y2 Analytics (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
RTrumpRepublican33%piePoll Date: 2016-11-03
IMcMullinIndependent28%Number Polled: 500
DClintonDemocratic24%Margin of Error: 4%
-Other-10%Voter Type: Likely
-Undecided-5%

Trump Leads McMullin in Utah

 By: leip (--MA) on 2016-11-04 @ 17:52:35

Question:

About this Poll
For these survey results, 500 likely voters were sampled from the state’s file of active registered voters in Utah (see sampling details below). Sampling error is only one possible source of error in survey research. Results can also beaffected by measurement error (e.g. question wording and question order), coverage error (e.g. counting as “likely voters” survey respondents who will not vote), and non-response error (e.g. the people who responded to the survey are systematicallydifferent from people who refused or were not reachable).Before drawing the sample, a model of general election turnout was estimated using age, party registration status, length of registration,permanent absentee status,and past election turnout (onerecent general election is used as the “dependent variable,” in this case the 2008general election). This model produces a sampling pool of registered voters that can be randomly sampled based on their likelihood of voting. A Probability Proportionate toSize (PPS) sample was drawn using this predicted turnout estimate such that voters with a higher probability of voting have a higher probability ofbeing selected in the sample. Thus, the final sample accurately approximates a population of general election voters.Quotas were set to ensure that the datareflect voter population proportions drawn from the PPS sample.Live callers conducted all of the interviews. 68% of the interviews were conducted over landlines, 32% over cell phones.Weights were constructed to correct for non-response bias on registered party, age, gender, and likelihood of turning out based on the model used in the PPS sampling.

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