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Source: Franklin and Marshall College (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DRobert Casey, Jr.*Democratic48%piePoll Date: 2012-09-23
RTom SmithRepublican38%Number Polled: 392
-Other-6%Margin of Error: 5%
-Undecided-8%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

Casey with Strong Lead in Pennsylvania

 By: leip (--MA) on 2012-09-26 @ 14:56:24

Question:
If the November 2012 general election for U.S. Senator was being held today and the candidates were [rotate] Tom Smith, the Republican, and Bob Casey, Jr., the Democrat, would you vote for: [rotate] Tom Smith, Bob Casey, Jr., or some other candidate? (registered voters)

About this Poll
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 18 – September 23, 2012. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent the responses of 632 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 318 Democrats, 236 Republicans, and 78 registered as Independent/Other. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Voter Contact Services. Survey results were weighted (region, gender, and party) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 3.9 percentage points. The presidential likely voter model, containing 392 voters, has a sample error of +/- 4.9%. Likely voters are those who indicate they are “very much” interested in the campaign and are “certain” to vote. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.

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