PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - WMS (D-NM) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-02 Version:10

Prediction Map
WMS MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
WMS MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+5+600013114+6
Rep000-1-5-612416-6
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
583622
piepiepie

Comments

Far more adjustments than with my Senate map, especially in the Confidence section. Still plenty of close races though.
And IDAHO?! That is the type of event that is truly amusing. :)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 9

Correcting for new information...toss-ups are, well, subject to change. ;-)


Version: 8

Time to update again...plenty of competitive races here.


Version: 7

Subject to further modification...


Version: 6

There have been some surprising poll numbers since the last time I updated this. In general, I refuse to change a race if the opposing candidate still hasn't broken 50%, since that means the electorate hasn't made up its mind yet. :) But there are still a lot of close races...


Version: 5

Making a few adjustments...


Version: 4

Getting some more information now...and MA is still a joke, for you casual lookers. :)


Version: 3

A lot of tweaking, and, just for fun, a Strayhorn win in Texas. Seriously, Kinky Friedman isn't going to win TEXAS... ;-)


Version: 2

Updated Iowa based on Forum commentary from the Iowans...


Version: 1

Although at least one prediction is a joke - that one is for one Walter Mitty on the Forum :) - there's a LOT of races I have little or no data on. Expect this prediction to change a lot...especially after other people start commenting on the races in one state or another ;-)

And I changed one already ;)


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 49/56 29/56 78/112 69.6% pie 1 221 646T684
P 2012 President 50/56 41/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 7 466T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 14/33 43/66 65.2% pie 1 7 221T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 1 7 179T228
P 2008 President 52/56 25/56 77/112 68.8% pie 6 1 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 8 1 257T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 11 1 65T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 22/36 58/72 80.6% pie 10 5 44T312
P 2004 President 53/56 23/56 76/112 67.9% pie 15 6 1441T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 342/370 193/370 535/740 72.3% pie


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