Final prediction. No more tossups.

ID - Satan must be going on a ski trip now. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

Changes:

NV - Gibbons caught in scandal, and that has made the race close. Titus can ride this to election day. We'll see how it goes. Lean R to Toss Up R

CA - I don't know why, but Arnold will win, no doubt now. Lean R to Strong R

Change:

ID - Yep, it's a tossup. Who would've thought it. Strong R to Toss Up R.

Changes:

MA - Patrick's lead is dropping. Still the clear favorite, but not as massive as before. Strong D to Lean D

OR - Cusp of Lean D and Toss Up. I don't buy the polls with Kulongoski down, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Lean D to Toss Up D

CO - Thanks for the free House seat Mr. Beauprez! Lean D to Strong D

Changes:

Iowa - Well Nussle has led now, it's only by 1 point, but the race is close. Lean D to Toss Up D

Minnesota - I have no clue how the polls are going with this one, but I'll believe Mason-Dixon. In that case Pawlenty's in trouble being the incumbent, and little Marky's going to be thrashed on the ballot. Could flip back, but for now I'll go with my gut and go with Hatch. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

Changes:

RI - Mason Dixon has Cariceri up by a lot. I think it's a 1 in 20, but he probably is up now. Toss Up D to Toss Up R

GA - Taylor is out of money and his campaign has virtually collapsed. Perdue has a very strong lead. Perdue doesn't have anything to worry about at this point. Lean R to Strong R

MD - The best Ehlrich has done since January is tie, and even then he only got 41% and it was from a GOP polling firm. O' Malley has the edge. Toss Up D to Lean D

AK - Too bad but Knowles hasn't taken the lead in a single poll yet. Murkowski isn't rubbing off on Palin too much. Toss Up R to Lean R

CA - I don't know why, and it sucks, but Arnold is leading in double digits despite wretched numbers. Toss Up R to Lean R

IL - OK, I jumped the gun a bit too quickly. It was an outlier poll. Still Blagovich has the clear edge. Strong D to Lean D

MA - Maybe I'm jumping the gun here too, but Patrick up by over 30 points is certainly noteworth. Momentum from the primary victory? He went from a real underdog to cruise over much more established opponents, hey, kind of like Obama. Lean D to Strong D

IL - Blagojevich is now up by 30 points. It's over. Lean D to Strong D

FL - Unfortunately Davis has been behind for a long long time. Toss Up R to Lean R

Changes:

KS - Now Sebelius is up by a wide enough margin to confirm that she was never in any danger. Lean D to Strong D

CO - Ritter has a very very clear lead. So wide in fact that I'd call it Strong D if polls continue to repeat the last one. Toss Up D to Lean D

IA - Culver has led in every poll. He's got a clear enough advantage. Toss Up D to Lean D

Michigan - Granholm has now opened a steady lead. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

Arizona - Looks like Napalitano has it in the bag after all. Lean D to Strong D.

Changes:

Ohio - There's really no doubt at this point that Strickland is going to win. And there's little doubt that it's not even going to be close. Lean D to Strong D.

Oregon - It appears that Kulongoski is opening up a lead and is getting safer. Toss Up D to Lean D

Alaska - With Murkowski gone, the GOP has the edge here again unofrtunately. Toss Up D to Toss Up R

Two rather gruding changes:

California - Well I have no clue why, with his approvals so low, but it looks like Arnold has the edge for some reason. Hopefully Angelides can close this. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

Minnesota - OK, I really want Pawlenty gone, and I highly doubt he's up by 17 or 10, I didn't think Hatch was up by 10 either. But whatever the numbers, he appears to have the edge. I'm sure a real poll will show things much closer and the campaign will be interesting, but for now, I'll have to give the edge to Pawlenty. Toss Up D to Toss Up R

A more positive one:

Oregon - Kulongoski seems to be improving. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

Colorado - Ritter has opened a sizable lead in a Mason-Dixon poll. I'm convinced now. Toss-Up D

I was worried about Blagojevich, but he appears to be making himself more safe. I'll make Illinois Lean D.

Changes:

Wisconsin - Doyle is up 10 points in the most recent poll. I kind of suspected he wasn't in much trouble, but went with Toss-Up to be safe. I can upgrade it now. Lean D.

Michigan - I hate to say it, but after 3 polls with DeVos up and by some wide margins, and Granholm only up 1-2 points in the polls she is, the fact is if the election were tommorow, DeVos would most likely win. I hope Granholm can come back, but until then I have to call it for DeVos. Toss-Up R

Changes:

Arkansas - This one might get close, but based on the polls there's no way I can say Beebe doesn't have a clear advantage. Lean D

Ohio - Basically the same thing, except for Strickland instead. Lean D

Rhode Island - Cariceri is dropping in approval, his opponent is gaining and the GOP in Rhode Island is just dropping overall. It appears that even popular Republicans in Rhode Island like him and Chaffee can't weather a very bad storm for the GOP. Toss Up D

New York - Weld might've held Spitzer under 70%. The no name joke runing now won't. Strong D >70%

Pennsylvania - Rendell's ratings are excellent now and he's kicking ass in all polls. Whatever's happening, this is no fluke. If the factors change, this one will change, but for now, I see no reason but to call it Strong. Strong D

Texas - Perry is still favored and the Dems have no shot at this one (which is too bad because I really like Chris Bell), but I can't rule out one of the novelty independents pulling off a win. Lean R

Alaska moved to Toss Up on the basis Murkowski will probably lose the primary. I'm back to thinking Granholm will win based on hearing she hasn't started campaigning yet and is still only down by about 2, but I have to move Oregon to be my token GOP pickup, as Kulongoski's ratings are just dismal and he barely won last time.

With Knowles running now, Murkowski got a serious serious problem on his hands. Alaska goes to Lean Dem.

Looks like Baldacci might pull this off after all.

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