IA-Culver seems to have locked onto the lead. He was above 50% in the most recent polls and has been ahead for a while.

ID-Still no clue what will happen here. Way to many undecideds to call for either one but I'm betting that Idaho instincts will put Otter through.

MN-This one is close but the independent is hurting Pawlenty more than Hatch. Plus Klobuchar is running away with the Senate race and will probably boost Hatch's numbers.

NV-Still a leaner b/c there are too many undecideds in recent polls to call it safe and with Gibbons's scandal issues thats not a good thing.

MD-This race is tightening in the final days so I moved it to lean but I stil think O'Malley has the edge. This race has tightened before only to bounce back in O'Malley's favor.

ME-I'm taking the newest poll here for all its worth and betting the 4-way split keeps everyone below 40%

IA-Culver seems to have locked onto the lead. He was above 50% in the most recent polls and has been ahead for a while.

ID-Still no clue what will happen here. Way to many undecideds to call for either one but I'm betting that Idaho instincts will put Otter through.

MN-This one is close but the independent is hurting Pawlenty more than Hatch. Plus Klobuchar is running away with the Senate race and will probably boost Hatch's numbers.

NV-Still a leaner b/c there are too many undecideds in recent polls to call it safe and with Gibbons's scandal issues thats not a good thing.

MD-This race is tightening in the final days so I moved it to lean but I stil think O'Malley has the edge. This race has tightened before only to bounce back in O'Malley's favor.

FL-Davis may have won if had been more agressive in getting his name out there. Some polls show this one closing up but name recognition and Jeb Bush's popularity will ultimately bring Davis down.

I was really hoping to avoid tossups on this map for the rest of the week but Idaho has come out of no where as this year's surprise race. Republicans here are infighting and self-destructing like crazy and given the national environment the Democrats are seizing the oppurtunity to perhaps capture the Governor's Mansion in one of the nation's redest of red states. Perhaps some Democratic revenge for MA.

NV and IA are the only two leaners left on my map. NV b/c of Gibbons scandal problems and IA b/c Culver hasn't had the lead for very long and its a very small lead.

I downgraded MN to 40% b/c there is an independent/3rd party consistantly polling between 6-9% that could keep this one below 50%. I also have ME and IL at 40% due to independents/3rd parties as well.

NV-Leans b/c they now have the video of him and the girl he may or may not have attacked in police custody.

FL-Leans b/c Davis's biggest problem is name recognition which he gets more of every day. This could be a close race.

ID-Apparently the Republicans are waging civil war on each other here so I downgraded to leans and made it 50%. This could be the biggest surprise of the election.

MN-Moved to safe because of good polls for Dems throughout October.

Did some major percentage revisions to reflect more recent polls. Most significant is Maine and Illinois where independents are polling above 10%. Democrats still hold the edge though. Davis is moving up in the Florida polls. I think it was lack of name recognition that was holding him back before. The same guy who outed Foley is trying to out Crist in Florida. Could turn the tide in this race. I'm hoping to keep tossups off my map all the way to election day so Iowa now leans Democrat.

Did some major percentage revisions to reflect more recent polls. Most significant is Maine and Illinois where independents are polling above 10%. Democrats still hold the edge though. Davis is moving up in the Florida polls. I think it was lack of name recognition that was holding him back before. The same guy who outed Foley is trying to out Crist in Florida. Could turn the tide in this race. I'm hoping to keep tossups off my map all the way to election day so Iowa now leans Democrat.

Just some minor changes since my last prediction. I rolled back MA and Blago's win percentages and I changed Rhode Island to a leaner. I think that if any seats change hands this year they're going to the Democrats which is why very none of my Demcratic incumbants are leaners.

If their was only one independent in Texas this race would be much more interesting but as it stands the majority of people disagree on which candidate should beat the Republican. So, that gives us a Republican plurality. The only real race is in Iowa right now.

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