GOP will hold RI. %'s adjusted in some states.

Few new polls out of Minnesota show hatch ahead (though I doubt its anywhere near the Star Tribune poll. The Senate race is looking to be well into the double digits, and that could help out Hatch & the Dems are spending quite a bit of $$ here. Still anything can happen, but Hatch has a small edge at this time.

The races in CO & MA don't look nearly as close as they did a couple months ago. Both go from lean to strong Dem pickups

California to lean. Held off on it before because of Arnold's comments, but doesn't look like it hurt him, he is clearly ahead at this point

AR- bebe's lead continues to grow, and it looks like bebe wins by a very solid margin, moved it to strong

Adjusted %'s on ohio & PA, as both Strickland & rendell look like they will win by 20+

Made a few adjustments on %

Alaska moves from tossup to lean GOP

CA was going to move to lean GP, but want to wait to see if anything transpires from Arnold shoving his foot in his mouth

made a few changes

AK-finally updated after the primary. I thinK Palin will win, but we have only seen one poll. Even though she defeated Murkowski in the Primary the disapproval of Murkowski can still impact this race, epecially against someone like Knowles. With that being said Palin should win and I think I will move this to lean shortly. Just want to see more info and polling before I do.

CA- held off on making this change for awhile, but now I have Arnold winning. could very well move this to lean GOP as well, but Arnold's approvals still aren't nothing to be proud of, combined with CA beinng a very heavil Dem state stops me from moving CA over.

KS- lean to strong Dem. Sebelius looks to strong at this point to keep it as a lean. It is a very red state, but her approvals remain strong, and she isn't going anywhere.

MD- Toss up to lean Ehrlich is in quite a bit of trouble, looks like O'Malley will pick this one up. lead in the polls have increased, its looking more & more that Cardin will win the Dem Primary, which produces a larger victory on the other major statewide ticket for the Dems. Ehrlich is in quite a bit of trouble.

MI- ltoss up to lean Dem. Looks like Devos has peaked. Granholm seems to be on the rise, and we now have four seperate pollsters showing things getting quite a bit better for Granholm. Stabenow looks likley to have a solid victory hich would help as well.

OK lean dem to strong Dem. henry is well liked, and has a large lead in the polls. Its a GOP state nationally, but Dems do solidly on the state level, and Henry is a part of that. His leads are just too hard to ignore at this point, and keepping it as lean makes little sense.

TN lean Dem to strong Dem. I really don't know why I put this lean in the first place. I guess I looked at GOP state, GOP victory likley on the Senate race so I thought this would be somewhat clsoe as a result. Bredesen has this one in the bag.

changes

RI
changed to a toss up with Fogarty ahead. polls show this race getting vey close with Fogarty a small lead in a few of them. This state is just so Democratic any clsoe race favors the Dems. If Laffey defeats Chafee in the primary, the Senate landslide will boost Fogarty even more.

PA & OH changed to strong for the dems. rendell and Strickland have large leads in virtually every poll which results in the change.

AR Bebe to a lean instead of tossup, something I should have down awhile ago and must have overlooked.

NH to over 70%, granted its just one poll, but Lynch with something like a 50% lead, WOW

to answer a question from a comment and in previous update which I never got around o. the reason I have Angelides ahead slightly over Arnold (though I do have it at toossup and >40%) is that I feel Dems are going to turn out stronger for Angelides than reps will for Arnold. it is a race that will be very close in fact I think it will probably be one of if not the closest Gunbeatorial race in the country.

Fixed a few things I overlooked last time

Didn't realize NH default was GOP despite them having a Dem Govenor (due to NH having 2 year terms)

Forgot to take into consideration the large 3rd party vote in texas.

%'s are based off 3rd party candidates getting less than 5%. Just made a correction as I never changed Alabama's default setting.

% is based off ind/3rd Party getting less than 5% of the vote

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