Idaho is boggling my mind and is scaring me with its last-minute Democratic surge, so much so that I'm chalking it up as a Democratic gain. I won't be surprised if it's not, but damn, for it to even be considered as one...

Not much change elsewhere. I've downgraded Oklahoma from 70% D to 60% D, as I expected I would. It'd be nice to imagine. :)

I'm holding Texas at 40% R even though every poll has it at under 40% because I have a feeling there'll be a last-minute increase in Perry's percentage from people who can't bring themselves to vote against a guy with an R next to his name.

The breakdown of confidence goes like this:

Strong - I would be seriously, seriously surprised if the other candidate won this race. The other candidate should get nowhere near victory.

Lean - It's possible that the other candidate could win, but it's not the likely outcome. Victory here will likely be within single digits.

Tossup - I really have no idea what to think here. If the other guy won, I honestly would not be surprised. It's anybody's game, and whoever wins will win it with a very small margin.

But seriously folks, happy Halloween. :)

THE REPUBLICANS COMMIT MASS VOTER FRAUD ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY AND NOBODY CARES

THEN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY DISBANDS

THE REPUBLICANS ARE JUST THAT HARDCORE

Mostly percentage changes. Alaska was shifted to Tossup Rep in light of polls showing the race narrowing, and Idaho of all places joins Alaska as Tossup Rep in light of polls showing that race narrowing as well. I'm also going to be bold and predict Rendell gets 60% of the vote in Pennsylvania. I'll probably change that back before election day.

Quite a few changes in light of the shifts that occurred since I last made a prediction here. I'm not gonna list them all.

With Murkowski and Knowles both intending to run for Alaskan governor, I've updated my prediction as a result pending the outcome of the primaries.

Alaska: Tossup Rep -> Lean Dem

Will probably change it to tossup Dem if Murkowski is not nominated, purely because:

1. I don't know who the other people are, and
2. Knowles is still well-liked enough to make it tilt towards his side.

If Knowles is NOT nominated and Murkowski gets the boot, it's back to tossup Rep.

I seem to have strongly underestimated Hatch in Minnesota. Unless another poll comes out that rejects the result of Hatch +10, I'm flipping it. I'm not going to switch it to Lean Dem (even though being up 10 certainly qualifies for that) until I see another poll confirming that Hatch is that far in the lead.

Minnesota: Tossup Rep -> Tossup Dem

To say that I had no idea Carcieri was that vulnerable is an understatement. Given that I've only seen one poll with Carcieri losing, I'm not flipping this to Dem yet, but given that I have seen one poll with Carcieri losing, I'll alter that. I also underestimated John Lynch's popularity.

Rhode Island: Strong Rep -> Tossup Rep
New Hampshire: 50% D -> 60% D

Okay, fine, maybe the Dems will win in Iowa. I'm not nearly ready to change California back, however.

Iowa: Tossup Rep -> Tossup Dem

I just realized that there's that independent guy in Massachusetts, making a win with >50% of the vote essentially impossible. Changed Massachusetts from D >50% to D >30%. Still lean Dem, basically just because it's Massachusetts.

I just realized that Strickland is the Democratic nominee for Ohio. I was messing him up with Sherrod Brown. With that in mind:

Ohio: Tossup Rep -> Tossup Dem

Hate to admit it, but Schwarzenegger is looking like he might win this after all.

California: Tossup Dem -> Tossup Rep

A few minor tweakings.

Initial prediction. This is probably going to change soon; I just want to get something on the map that I can tinker with later.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:54:27

Not bad. I disagree with you about Perry getting more than 40%, and naturally I can give you a few arguments about your Illinois prediction and confidence. Nonetheless, not bad though.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:11:28

I'm not sure Otter will lose in Idaho. Sali is the one who is really in trouble. I'm don't think Idahoans (Idahoians?) are ready for a Democratic Governor even if the Idaho Senate leader called Otter an idiot.

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