Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	21
Rep	14
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	21
Rep	14
Ind	1
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+6	+8	-1	0	-1	12	1	13	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-6	-8	11	3	14	-8
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
63	33	30

Comments

Final call. Maybe I'll look a fool when Merrill falls way short in Maine, but I think I have the rest spot on. Nevada is the only other big question mark.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 29

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Barbara Merrill is going to pull a come-out-of-nowhere upset on Baldacci. She has an extremely impressive GOTV campaign and tons of loyal supporters. Baldacci is unpopular, and Woodcock is not seen by Democrats and Independents as a viable alternative. She's still way behind in the polls, but has closed the gap remarkably in the last week or so.

But, I will stop justifying myself and go for the wacky call.

Merrill (U)*: 32%
Baldacci (D): 29%
Woodcock (R): 29%
LaMarche (GI): 10%

*Unenrolled, Maine equivalent of Independent.

Version: 28

Hatch has led in every poll for over a month. Despite the small size of each lead, Minnesota now leans Dem.

Version: 27

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Nevada will go Dem. Also, Oregon and Iowa are not going to flip at this point.

Version: 26

Alaska back to lean R, Wisconsin to safe D.

Version: 25

Maryland is backpeddling.

Version: 24

Republicans are throwing away race after race at the last minute! Nevada to Tossup R.

Version: 23

Nevada <50% R due to the "None of these" choice.

Alaska to toss-up again after the new Rasmussen poll puts it as a 1-point race.

Version: 22

Idaho joins Minnesota as a Toss-up. Wow.

Version: 21

Florida to Strong R, Maryland to Strong D, Massachusetts to >60% Dem.

Minnesota remains the only toss-up; Hatch has led in most recent polls, so I have it as Toss-up D. On the Dem side, only Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon remain competitive. On the GOP side, Nevada and Idaho remain competitive.

Version: 20

Texas is all over now. Lean R to Strong R.

Version: 19

Illinois to >40%, Idaho to Lean R.

Version: 18

News from Idaho is interesting... D internal shows Brady leading. I don't buy it, but Otter probably won't break 60% as I had expected.

Alaska moves to Lean GOP, >40% in the wake of two polls putting the race tied. I think Palin is ahead, but maybe by less than we all were presuming.

Oh, and a minor correction that I should have made a while ago: Ohio to >60%.

Version: 12

Maryland to Strong D, Nevada to Strong R, Rhode Island to Lean R (again).

Version: 11

Maine to Strong D, South Carolina to Strong R.

Version: 10

Iowa from Lean D to Tossup D, Alaska from Lean R to Strong R.

Version: 9

Rhode Island back to Toss-up R in the wake of another poll puting it very close. Minnesota has been more consistent for Hatch lately, so it switches from tossup R to Tossup D.

Version: 8

RI back to Lean R. I should really wait for another poll.

Michigan to Safe D. DeVos has lost all momentum and Granholm is now well ahead.

Version: 7

Florida to Safe R, Rhode Island from Lean R back to toss-up R.

Version: 6

Rhode Island from Toss-up R to Lean R after the M-D and Brown polls showed Carcieri surprisingly far ahead.

Oregon from Safe D to Lean D. Kulongoski will win, but not by a wide margin.

Version: 5

Maryland: Toss-up D to Lean D.

Version: 4

One change: Minnesota Toss-up D to Toss-up R.

Version: 3

Two changes: South Carolina from Solid R to Lean R, and Michigan from Toss-up D to Lean D.

Version: 2

Based on recent polls, Rhode Island reverts to the Republicans, and Minnesota switches to the Democrats. Texas is also less certain; as Strayhorn collapses, her support seems to be splitting between Bell and Friedman, both of whom have also been steadily gaining on Perry. This one could become interesting.

I also fixed an error on my earlier map; Nevada is only >50% GOP and only leaning GOP.

Version History

30: 2006-11-07 @ 09:45:19 29: 2006-11-06 @ 16:57:18 28: 2006-11-05 @ 13:32:56 27: 2006-11-04 @ 14:28:41 26: 2006-11-03 @ 11:52:57 25: 2006-11-02 @ 18:39:38 24: 2006-11-01 @ 13:23:27 23: 2006-10-30 @ 23:49:22 22: 2006-10-29 @ 11:46:38 21: 2006-10-28 @ 14:35:11 20: 2006-10-27 @ 13:52:30 19: 2006-10-26 @ 12:49:24 18: 2006-10-25 @ 18:13:40 17: 2006-10-24 @ 19:42:16 16: 2006-10-23 @ 19:45:46 15: 2006-10-22 @ 21:37:31 14: 2006-10-16 @ 18:51:45 13: 2006-10-15 @ 11:45:52 12: 2006-10-09 @ 12:38:29 11: 2006-10-08 @ 10:38:45 10: 2006-10-07 @ 12:18:51 9: 2006-10-06 @ 17:02:33 8: 2006-10-05 @ 21:18:13 7: 2006-10-03 @ 20:47:43 6: 2006-10-02 @ 11:57:26 5: 2006-10-01 @ 14:12:29 4: 2006-09-30 @ 14:06:25 3: 2006-09-29 @ 13:53:58 2: 2006-09-27 @ 14:31:47 1: 2006-09-24 @ 22:43:10 View Version

Member Comments

 By: Cuivienen (I-NJ) - 2006-11-11 @ 20:01:03

Despite getting three wins wrong (I still root for you, Barbara Merrill!), I still did extremely well in my prediction. Congratulations, me. Last Edit: 2006-11-11 @ 20:01:14

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