Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-05-01 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	16
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+6	+8	-3	0	-3	10	1	11	+5
Rep	+3	0	+3	-3	-6	-9	11	2	13	-6
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
42	30	12

Comments

If anyone's wondering, the green in Texas is for Strayhorn -- as the election continues I see Friedman and Bell losing support to the candidate most likely to take down a fairly unpopular Perry. (The poor Texas Dems could finish 4th!)

Other than that I see an overall pro-Dem wind, though Republicans can knock off Blagojevich (corruption), Granholm (bad economy), and Baldacci (um...I actually have no idea why Mainers hate him, but it seems they do). I'd give them PA but I think Diamond hurts Swann more than Rendell.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	54/56	34/56	88/112	78.6%	4	28	276	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	16/33	47/66	71.2%	3	28	204	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	27	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	41/52	8/52	49/104	47.1%	3	-	75	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	38/49	8/49	46/98	46.9%	2	-	72	T	235
2006 U.S. Senate	29/33	17/33	46/66	69.7%	1	190	257	T	465
2006 Governor	30/36	12/36	42/72	58.3%	1	190	244	T	312
2004 President	50/56	32/56	82/112	73.2%	1	274	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	284/326	133/326	417/652	64.0%

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