Advertise on the Atlas

Time Plot Posters!

Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	22
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	18
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+6	+8	0	0	0	13	1	14	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-6	-8	11	3	14	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
65	34	31

Comments

Idaho is boggling my mind and is scaring me with its last-minute Democratic surge, so much so that I'm chalking it up as a Democratic gain. I won't be surprised if it's not, but damn, for it to even be considered as one...

Not much change elsewhere. I've downgraded Oklahoma from 70% D to 60% D, as I expected I would. It'd be nice to imagine. :)

I'm holding Texas at 40% R even though every poll has it at under 40% because I have a feeling there'll be a last-minute increase in Perry's percentage from people who can't bring themselves to vote against a guy with an R next to his name.

The breakdown of confidence goes like this:

Strong - I would be seriously, seriously surprised if the other candidate won this race. The other candidate should get nowhere near victory.

Lean - It's possible that the other candidate could win, but it's not the likely outcome. Victory here will likely be within single digits.

Tossup - I really have no idea what to think here. If the other guy won, I honestly would not be surprised. It's anybody's game, and whoever wins will win it with a very small margin.

Prediction History

Comments History - show

Version History

14: 2006-11-07 @ 01:59:40 13: 2006-11-01 @ 01:39:30 12: 2006-10-31 @ 00:24:06 11: 2006-10-30 @ 02:32:56 10: 2006-10-18 @ 20:38:16 9: 2006-05-31 @ 16:47:16 8: 2006-05-11 @ 18:44:30 7: 2006-05-05 @ 19:43:13 6: 2006-05-02 @ 21:01:06 5: 2006-04-20 @ 00:41:30 4: 2006-04-19 @ 00:01:53 3: 2006-04-18 @ 01:25:38 2: 2006-04-17 @ 00:11:04 1: 2006-04-09 @ 19:09:59 View Version

Member Comments

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:54:27

Not bad. I disagree with you about Perry getting more than 40%, and naturally I can give you a few arguments about your Illinois prediction and confidence. Nonetheless, not bad though.

---

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:11:28

I'm not sure Otter will lose in Idaho. Sali is the one who is really in trouble. I'm don't think Idahoans (Idahoians?) are ready for a Democratic Governor even if the Idaho Senate leader called Otter an idiot.

---

Links

• View Gabu Senatorial Predictions
• View Gabu Gubernatorial Endorsements
• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Gubernatorial Prediction Home