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Data Sets

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:14

Prediction Map
Gabu Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Gabu Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+6+800013114+8
Rep000-2-6-811314-8
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
653431
piepiepie

Comments

Idaho is boggling my mind and is scaring me with its last-minute Democratic surge, so much so that I'm chalking it up as a Democratic gain. I won't be surprised if it's not, but damn, for it to even be considered as one...

Not much change elsewhere. I've downgraded Oklahoma from 70% D to 60% D, as I expected I would. It'd be nice to imagine. :)

I'm holding Texas at 40% R even though every poll has it at under 40% because I have a feeling there'll be a last-minute increase in Perry's percentage from people who can't bring themselves to vote against a guy with an R next to his name.

The breakdown of confidence goes like this:

Strong - I would be seriously, seriously surprised if the other candidate won this race. The other candidate should get nowhere near victory.

Lean - It's possible that the other candidate could win, but it's not the likely outcome. Victory here will likely be within single digits.

Tossup - I really have no idea what to think here. If the other guy won, I honestly would not be surprised. It's anybody's game, and whoever wins will win it with a very small margin.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:54:27

Not bad. I disagree with you about Perry getting more than 40%, and naturally I can give you a few arguments about your Illinois prediction and confidence. Nonetheless, not bad though. prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:11:28

I'm not sure Otter will lose in Idaho. Sali is the one who is really in trouble. I'm don't think Idahoans (Idahoians?) are ready for a Democratic Governor even if the Idaho Senate leader called Otter an idiot.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 1 537 474T
P 2008 Dem Primary 3/52 2/52 5/104 4.8% pie 5 - 264
P 2008 Rep Primary 3/49 1/49 4/98 4.1% pie 5 - 225T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 182 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 27/33 59/66 89.4% pie 7 0 7T
P 2006 Governor 34/36 31/36 65/72 90.3% pie 14 0 1T
P 2004 President 55/56 42/56 97/112 86.6% pie 10 1 24T
Aggregate Predictions 179/285 138/285 317/570 55.6% pie


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