Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:14

Prediction Map
padfoot714 Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
padfoot714 Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+5	+7	0	0	0	13	1	14	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-5	-7	11	4	15	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
63	35	28

Comments

IA-Culver seems to have locked onto the lead. He was above 50% in the most recent polls and has been ahead for a while.

ID-Still no clue what will happen here. Way to many undecideds to call for either one but I'm betting that Idaho instincts will put Otter through.

MN-This one is close but the independent is hurting Pawlenty more than Hatch. Plus Klobuchar is running away with the Senate race and will probably boost Hatch's numbers.

NV-Still a leaner b/c there are too many undecideds in recent polls to call it safe and with Gibbons's scandal issues thats not a good thing.

MD-This race is tightening in the final days so I moved it to lean but I stil think O'Malley has the edge. This race has tightened before only to bounce back in O'Malley's favor.

ME-I'm taking the newest poll here for all its worth and betting the 4-way split keeps everyone below 40%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	6	3	77	T
2012 Senate	32/33	21/33	53/66	80.3%	6	3	56	T
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	3	14	51	T
2012 Rep Primary	32/52	7/52	39/104	37.5%	14	-	111	T
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	2	107	37	T
2010 Senate	36/37	26/37	62/74	83.8%	17	2	21	T
2010 Governor	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	10	2	29	T
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	3	25	56	T
2008 President	53/56	48/56	101/112	90.2%	52	0	6	T
2008 Senate	33/33	27/33	60/66	90.9%	22	6	1	T
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	9	14	27	T
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	23/52	65/104	62.5%	21	-	28	T
2008 Rep Primary	36/49	19/49	55/98	56.1%	19	-	27	T
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	6	164	1	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	13	2	46	T
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	14	1	10	T
Aggregate Predictions	452/505	312/505	764/1010	75.6%

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