Election 2007 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2007-05-29 Version:7

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	47

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	2
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	47

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	0
Rep	0	+1	+1	-1	0	-1	1	0	1	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Comments

Here's what I can't understand - why are so many people not predicting Barbour to win over 60%? He's a popular Republican governor in a heavily Republican state. I wouldn't be too duprised if he passes 70%.

No polls are coming out of Mississippi, and there's a reason for that - Barbour is expected to win by a landslide.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: AnythingGoes41 (I-IL) - 2007-05-29 @ 19:39:18

Though Barbour certainly will win, his cuts on state health spending have not been viewed as popularly as his Katrina response. Plus, Barbour has some associations with segregationists from the past that occasionally come back to haunt him.

By: Aizen (D-CO) - 2007-06-05 @ 01:36:26

I have Barbour with over 60%. After all, it is Mississippi.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	10	0	47	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	6	0	111	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	9/52	4/52	13/104	12.5%	3	-	206	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	5	140	12	T	106
2010 Senate	37/37	23/37	60/74	81.1%	14	1	54	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	20/37	51/74	68.9%	3	137	158	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	54	6	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	23	6	5	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	11/11	22/22	100.0%	10	6	1	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	20	34	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	69	1	10	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	26/36	61/72	84.7%	59	1	22	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	335/391	250/391	585/782	74.8%

Links

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