Election 2008 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-04 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	4
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	5
Rep	4
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

WA - the polls I've seen have the Dems ahead consistently, admittedly by 2/3%.

MT - again, consistent polls. Given this is a presidnetial year, I think the GOP will come out. Dem candidate to get 59%.

UT / ND / NH / VT - no surprises.

MO - probably won't back the Dem prez nominee - but I can beleive they will split their vote for a Dem governor.

IN - safe for the GOP, despite their problems (unless Evan Bayh undergoes human cloning)

NC / WV - Dems should be ok.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-03-04 @ 13:48:01
What do ya think?

By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-03-09 @ 05:47:04
North Carolina is too solid on your map.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	2	36	182	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	9/33	39/66	59.1%	1	36	268	T	343
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	1	100	2	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	7	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	6	1	106	T	312
2008 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	31	1	219	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	4	2	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	2	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	16/52	0/52	16/104	15.4%	1	-	211	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	1	37	299	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	14/36	50/72	69.4%	3	16	132	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	336/388	190/388	526/776	67.8%

Links

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