Election 2008 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	4
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	5
Rep	4
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	4	2	6	+1
Rep	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	4	0	4	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 22)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
17	11	6

Analysis

This year I feel the Gov. races will be interesting sideshows to the race for President. Here we go:

MO will be a Dem gain due to unpopularity of Gov. Blunt.

WA and NC are toss-ups. WA will be close, but I feel the Dem will win . Hopefully this happens without the drama of four years ago!

NC has been a surprise. I had long thought Perdue had this in the bag. In recent weeks McCrory has been effectitive at making the theme of the campaign change. However Perdue has made mistakes with some ads. In the end Perdue will win narrowly. How narrow depends on how much the Libertarian candidate gets.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	6	9	99	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	1	1	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	3	1	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	41/56	96/112	85.7%	3	14	265	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	6	3	94	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	14/37	48/74	64.9%	3	2	265	T	456
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	19	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	31/56	83/112	74.1%	1	6	404	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	1	6	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	6	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	31	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	15/33	48/66	72.7%	4	3	207	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	2	0	93	T	312
2004 President	54/56	20/56	74/112	66.1%	6	1	1527	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	409/430	225/430	634/860	73.7%

Links

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