Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-10-11 Version:11

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.

NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Neighborhood Research (R) (10/6-8): Christie 36%, Corzine 36% (D+3)*
Survey USA (10/5-7): Christie 36%, Corzine 35% (R+1)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (10/6-7): Christie 43%, Corzine 40% (R+6)*

Prediction: Christie will win by 1.33% (GOP GAIN)

VIRGINIA (open seat)
Washington Post (10/4-7): McDonnell 53%, Deeds 44% (R+9)
SurveyUSA (10/2-4): McDonnell 54%, Deeds 43% (R+11)
Rasmussen (9/29): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 39% (R+10)

Prediction: McDonnell will win by 10% (GOP GAIN)

*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.

HISTORY
10/4: NJ R+3.67; VA R+10.33
9/27: NJ R+5.33; VA R+6
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2

The next predictions will come on Sunday, October 18.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-10-13 @ 13:24:56
Democracy Corps has Corzine ahead by 3

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	13	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	26/37	60/74	81.1%	8	0	45	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	0	1	T	103
2008 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	18	0	55	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	4	0	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	3	0	9	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	5	50	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	3	4	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	2	4	10	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	238/248	176/248	414/496	83.5%

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