PredictionsEndorse2009 Gubernatorial Predictions - tmthforu94 (D-MO) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2009-11-02 Version:18

Prediction Map
tmthforu94 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
tmthforu94 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non48
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non48
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-1-1-2000-2
Rep+1+1+2000000+2
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
422
piepiepie

Analysis

My final prediction map, and I feel fairly confident I have this right.

New Jersey:
Chrisite - 45%
Corzine - 42%
Daggett - 10%
Other - 3%

Virginia:
McDonnell - 57%
Deeds - 43%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 17

New Jersey switches back, just so I can claim I had predicted this at some point.


Version: 16

New Jersey:
Christie - 46%
Corzine -44%
Daggett - 10%

Virginia:
McDonnell - 57%
Deeds- 42%


Version: 15

Virginia is strong Republican, while New Jersey is now a toss-up. It should be a fun election night.


Version: 14

Prediction:
New Jersey
Christie-51%
Corzine-44%

Virginia
McDonnell-56%
Deeds-43%


Version: 13

I'm getting more confident that McDonnell will be the next Governor of Virginia. Both Democrats still have a chance to catch up, but as of now, I think Republicans will be very happy on election night `09.


Version: 11

Both states stay the same. NJ goes to Lean.


Version: 10

With a new poll showing Christie leading by only 6 points, New Jersey moves to toss-up, while Virginia switches to the GOP.


Version: 9

Virginia goes Democrat...
New Jersey goes to lean...


Version: 8

Both states stay are Republican wins, but New Jersey moves to toss-up, until more polling is done. Corzine is an incumbment, which gives him a boost.


Version: 7

New Jersey goes back to lean, and Virginia switches to Republican. I expect Obama's sinking approval rating to hurt Democrats in 2009 elections.


Version: 6

Virginia goes back and forth until more polls come out. The same on New Jersey, whether it's lean or toss-up.


Version: 5

Virginia goes blue again. Waiting on some more polls to come out. Hopefully a couple will come out in the next week.


Version: 4

I'm quite undecided on Virginia. Patiently waiting more polls to come out.
If elections were held today:

Christie-54%
Corzine-45%

Deeds-49%
McDonnell-49%


Version: 3

Virginia goes back to blue.
I think Deeds is doing so well because of President Obama. As Obama's approval ratings begin to slip in Virginia, so will Deed's poll numbers. Another 5% drop for Obama in the state will likely result in a Republican victory.
New Jersey goes from toss-up to lean, until polls tell me this will actually be close.


Version: 2

Virginia switches to Democrat. Kaine and Obama's high approval ratings should help Deeds.

Christie wins New Jersey 55-44%.
Deeds wins Virginia 49-49%.


Version: 1

As of now, I think both states will go Republican in November. Virginia is the only state I'm unsure of. One poll has Deeds leading, but that poll also had the smallest sample. Altogether, I give a slight Republican edge in New Jersey, while Virginia could go either way, but I'd put my money on it going Republican.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: auburntiger (I-FL) 2009-11-02 @ 19:10:23
I certainly hope you are right about New Jersey. I can't wait to eat crow!prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-02 @ 20:35:46
Me too. I think that NY-23 and Virginia will be wins for us tomorrow. I'm not too sure about New Jersey. The really question in that race is how many votes will Daggett take from Christie.

And needham if you bring the salt I'll bring the crow.
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-11-03 @ 02:09:56
Actually a plurality of Daggett voters have Corzine as a second choice, but I still feel Christie is the slight favorite in that race. It will be close though, and the game will be won with turnout.

In NY-23, there seems to be some wind behind that Hoffman guy, although I feel some independents might not have realized just how conservative he is, they only know he's not a major party candidate. And frankly, why would a guy like him outperform John McCain (47%) in a Rockefeller district? That's the mystery. In any case, I think the double-digit lead PPP gives Hoffman is exaggerated.
And the fact that Scozzafava endorsed Owens is in my opinion the most significant thing in that election: the moderate Republicans are leaving the boat and the GOP is turning more and more into an extreme conservative movement.
prediction Map

 By: auburntiger (I-FL) 2009-11-03 @ 18:44:43
DEAL! prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-03 @ 22:42:48
Wow we won New Jersey but looks closer in NY-23 than I thought. Though its still early and the big population pockets of this large district have yet to come in.

Needham, lets dig into that crow!
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 239
P 2023 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 27 1T115
P 2022 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 9 1 224T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 28/36 62/72 86.1% pie 8 1 23T272
P 2021 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 3 6 1T118
P 2020 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 13 6 74T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 19/35 50/70 71.4% pie 10 4 274T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 6 6 10T293
P 2019 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 4 10 130T192
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 17 1 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 16 3 6T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 3 40T149
P 2016 President 50/56 35/56 85/112 75.9% pie 18 1 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 16 1 60T362
P 2016 Governor 11/12 7/12 18/24 75.0% pie 14 1 3T279
P 2015 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 10 3T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 22 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 18/36 47/72 65.3% pie 19 0 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 13 17T153
P 2012 President 53/56 39/56 92/112 82.1% pie 62 1 435T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 26 1 164T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 14 1 89T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 22/52 65/104 62.5% pie 43 - 22T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 14 1 37T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 128 1 34T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 25/37 58/74 78.4% pie 114 1 74T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 18 1 1T103
P 2008 President 49/56 36/56 85/112 75.9% pie 67 1 357T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 23 1 96T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 16 1 86T264
Aggregate Predictions 696/765 487/765 1183/1530 77.3% pie


Back to 2009 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved