Date of Prediction: 2009-11-02 Version:18
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 4)
Analysis
My final prediction map, and I feel fairly confident I have this right.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 17 New Jersey switches back, just so I can claim I had predicted this at some point. Version: 16 New Jersey: Version: 15 Virginia is strong Republican, while New Jersey is now a toss-up. It should be a fun election night. Version: 14 Prediction: Version: 13 I'm getting more confident that McDonnell will be the next Governor of Virginia. Both Democrats still have a chance to catch up, but as of now, I think Republicans will be very happy on election night `09. Version: 11 Both states stay the same. NJ goes to Lean. Version: 10 With a new poll showing Christie leading by only 6 points, New Jersey moves to toss-up, while Virginia switches to the GOP. Version: 9 Virginia goes Democrat... Version: 8 Both states stay are Republican wins, but New Jersey moves to toss-up, until more polling is done. Corzine is an incumbment, which gives him a boost. Version: 7 New Jersey goes back to lean, and Virginia switches to Republican. I expect Obama's sinking approval rating to hurt Democrats in 2009 elections. Version: 6 Virginia goes back and forth until more polls come out. The same on New Jersey, whether it's lean or toss-up. Version: 5 Virginia goes blue again. Waiting on some more polls to come out. Hopefully a couple will come out in the next week. Version: 4 I'm quite undecided on Virginia. Patiently waiting more polls to come out. Version: 3 Virginia goes back to blue. Version: 2 Virginia switches to Democrat. Kaine and Obama's high approval ratings should help Deeds. Version: 1 As of now, I think both states will go Republican in November. Virginia is the only state I'm unsure of. One poll has Deeds leading, but that poll also had the smallest sample. Altogether, I give a slight Republican edge in New Jersey, while Virginia could go either way, but I'd put my money on it going Republican.
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