Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-07-30 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Analysis

The polls are hard to argue with. Unless something major changes, 2009, and even more so 2010, are going to be bad years for the Dems.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-07-31 @ 12:10:39
I think the dems will have 24 seats in 2010, I don't think that's a bad thing. Usually, whoever has the white house, the outparty does better in the midterms. 2002 we would of had the majority had Shannon O'Brian wasn't sabotaged by Mitt Romney.

By: Aguagon (D-AZ) 2009-08-01 @ 20:51:28
Well, 2002 was an anomaly because it was still during the aftermath of 9/11. I expect the old routine of out party doing better in the midterms to resume in 2010, and continue until another event of such greatly extenuating circumstances comes about. It's easier to criticize than to lead. But I don't think 2010 will necessarily be a bloodbath. I expect the Dems to keep their majorities in both houses, and their losses could end up being very minimal if the White House gets any credit for the halt of the recession. What has me worried most are Obama's falling numbers and the health care debate. The more he tries for compromise, the more boos he seems to get from both sides of the aisle. Also, though the early (and at this point meaningless) "Would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate?" polls show a very competitive national race, the momentum is with the Republicans. At least, for now. Last Edit: 2009-08-01 @ 20:52:14

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-08-04 @ 10:55:24
It's not only health care, the Obama administration must find new jobs to replace the old jobs that has to do with manufacturing. If there are no such jobs the Obama administration will have a hard time.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-10-16 @ 10:37:33
I think you should look again at the NJ gub race, the NYTimes polls has Corzine ahead. We are past Corzine's high disapprovals and heading into the most competetive part of the campaign. Corzine should win.

By: CR (--MO) 2009-10-16 @ 19:12:22
Or a better way to phrase it is Corzine could win. New Jersey is a hard state to call because the GOP tends to look good in the spring and summer and then falls apart in October. That said, Christie is in a unique situation with such voter disatisfaction at the status quo. Argo I think that Christie has a 50/50 chance at defeating Corzine. As for 2010, I'm not sure about the Senate but I'd say the House has good things in store for my party. Americans like checks and balances. Given how fast this administration and their congressional allies have moved on a wide range of issues, the people may be seeking to tap on the breaks. Supermajorities have a way of sometimes not being a good thing for those in power. But its still October 2009 and we'll have to wait and see what next year brings and what issues will head the campign, shaping the debate to come. Last Edit: 2009-10-16 @ 19:12:40

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-10-26 @ 11:57:00
Well the latest SU poll has Corzine well out in front. As far as the economy, we were going through a transitional economy and people were blaming Dems in general. But, I think now, people are putting the blame where it belonged in the beginning on the banks. Corzine will probably win.

By: CR (--MO) 2009-10-31 @ 23:55:02
I don't know, the polls are pretty tight right now with Christie and Corzine neck-in-neck. Typically in a normal New Jersey race you would see the Republican collapsing in October and the Democrats in a comfortible position by this point. The fact that it remains close with the polls divided is good news for the GOP. Plus while some polls have Christie in the low 40's I've seen no polls with Corzine above the high 30's. Unusual for a Democrat in blue New Jersey. Now on the economy I have to disagree with you on the banks. The people are not interested in this much government this fast. I think they are looking at the market and saying well the decline has slowed but we are still stagnate. And the position the dollar and the defict are in are not helpful either. With Democrats in control people are starting to look for answers as to why things are still the way they are, IMHO. But we'll see what Tuesday's races bring. Then its on to the real fun of 2010...

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-11-02 @ 13:32:25
I think with unemployment at 9.8%, the dynamics of the NJ polling of comfortable leads changes. Outside of the PPP and suffolk polling, it a statistical tie.

By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-02 @ 20:33:54
True enough. We know that Corzine is unpopular in New Jersey in general. I think the real question at this point is how much of the vote will Daggett take from Christie. That may well be the deciding factor in this race.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-11-03 @ 02:13:56
Daggett will IMO lose some of his support in the ballot booth and slip into high single digits. That shouldn't help either candidate, although Corzine wins a plurality of second choices, I don't think it will be decisive. I don't see that race being won by more than 3 points anyway, and if it is it will be a Christie victory: I think Corzine has a 45% ceiling by now.

By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-03 @ 22:41:13
You certainly called it FrenchEd, right on the money. Looks like Corzine with 45% and a 4-5% win for Christie. Not bad for the GOP in a blue state like New Jersey.

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