PredictionsNewsEndorse2009 Gubernatorial Predictions - DS0816 (--MI) ResultsForumPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2009-10-31 Version:1

Prediction Map
DS0816 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
DS0816 Map


Prediction States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non48
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non48
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-1-1-2000-2
Rep+1+1+2000000+2
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
422
piepiepie

Analysis

New Jersey's race between Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie is considered a nail-biter. And I figure it to be a tossup. Either one is a good prediction. Independent candidate Chris Daggett might be the best choice; but a big shift his direction would be required to pull off an upset (a la Jesse Ventura in the 1998 Minnesota race).


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 10 182T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 18/33 49/66 74.2% pie 2 45 128T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 21/37 53/74 71.6% pie 5 32 167T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 23/37 56/74 75.7% pie 1 32 106T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 3 1T
P 2008 President 50/56 38/56 88/112 78.6% pie 10 2 276T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 2 24 281T
Aggregate Predictions 234/254 158/254 392/508 77.2% pie


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