Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-10-31 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
4	2	2

Analysis

New Jersey's race between Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie is considered a nail-biter. And I figure it to be a tossup. Either one is a good prediction. Independent candidate Chris Daggett might be the best choice; but a big shift his direction would be required to pull off an upset (a la Jesse Ventura in the 1998 Minnesota race).

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	4/56	0/56	4/112	3.6%	3	60	677		678
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	8	10	182	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	18/33	49/66	74.2%	2	45	128	T	343
2010 Senate	32/37	21/37	53/74	71.6%	5	32	167	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	23/37	56/74	75.7%	1	32	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	3	1	T	103
2008 President	50/56	38/56	88/112	78.6%	10	2	276	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	2	24	281	T	407
Aggregate Predictions	238/310	158/310	396/620	63.9%

Links

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