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Date of Prediction: 2009-11-02 Version:18

Prediction Map
tmthforu94 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
tmthforu94 Map


Prediction States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non48
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non48
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-1-1-2000-2
Rep+1+1+2000000+2
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
422
piepiepie

Analysis

My final prediction map, and I feel fairly confident I have this right.

New Jersey:
Chrisite - 45%
Corzine - 42%
Daggett - 10%
Other - 3%

Virginia:
McDonnell - 57%
Deeds - 43%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: auburntiger (R-FL) 2009-11-02 @ 19:10:23
I certainly hope you are right about New Jersey. I can't wait to eat crow!prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-02 @ 20:35:46
Me too. I think that NY-23 and Virginia will be wins for us tomorrow. I'm not too sure about New Jersey. The really question in that race is how many votes will Daggett take from Christie.

And needham if you bring the salt I'll bring the crow.
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-11-03 @ 02:09:56
Actually a plurality of Daggett voters have Corzine as a second choice, but I still feel Christie is the slight favorite in that race. It will be close though, and the game will be won with turnout.

In NY-23, there seems to be some wind behind that Hoffman guy, although I feel some independents might not have realized just how conservative he is, they only know he's not a major party candidate. And frankly, why would a guy like him outperform John McCain (47%) in a Rockefeller district? That's the mystery. In any case, I think the double-digit lead PPP gives Hoffman is exaggerated.
And the fact that Scozzafava endorsed Owens is in my opinion the most significant thing in that election: the moderate Republicans are leaving the boat and the GOP is turning more and more into an extreme conservative movement.
prediction Map

 By: auburntiger (R-FL) 2009-11-03 @ 18:44:43
DEAL! prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2009-11-03 @ 22:42:48
Wow we won New Jersey but looks closer in NY-23 than I thought. Though its still early and the big population pockets of this large district have yet to come in.

Needham, lets dig into that crow!
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 13 17T
P 2012 President 53/56 39/56 92/112 82.1% pie 62 1 435T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 26 1 164T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 14 1 89T
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 22/52 65/104 62.5% pie 43 - 22T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 14 1 37T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 128 1 34T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 25/37 58/74 78.4% pie 114 1 74T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 18 1 1T
P 2008 President 49/56 36/56 85/112 75.9% pie 67 1 357T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 23 1 96T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 16 1 86T
Aggregate Predictions 302/334 202/334 504/668 75.4% pie


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