Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Election Data

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Date of Prediction: 2009-11-03 Version:14

Prediction Map
texaslefty Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
texaslefty Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
4	2	2

Analysis

Here are my final predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls, signed and sealed.

NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
SurveyUSA (10/27-11/1): Christie 42%, Corzine 40% (R+2)
Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/1): Corzine 47%, Corzine 41% (R+6)
Monmouth University (10/31-11/1): Corzine 43%, Christie 41% (D+2)

Prediction: Christie will win by 2% (GOP GAIN)

VIRGINIA (open seat)
Public Policy Polling (10/30-11/1): McDonnell 56%, Deeds 42% (R+14)
Mason-Dixon (10/29-30): McDonnell 53%, Deeds 41% (R+12)
YouGov (10/27-30): McDonnell 53%, Deeds 40% (R+13)

Prediction: McDonnell will win by 13% (GOP GAIN)

HISTORY
10/25: NJ R+1.33; VA R+13
10/18: NJ R+2; VA R+7.33
10/11: NJ R+1.33; VA R+10
10/4: NJ R+3.67; VA R+10.33
9/27: NJ R+5.33; VA R+6
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	13	0	100	T
2010 Governor	34/37	26/37	60/74	81.1%	8	0	45	T
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	0	1	T
2008 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	18	0	55	T
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	4	0	28	T
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	3	0	9	T
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	5	50	1	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	3	4	113	T
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	2	4	10	T
Aggregate Predictions	238/248	176/248	414/496	83.5%

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