PredictionsNewsEndorse2009 Gubernatorial Predictions - texaslefty (I-UT) ResultsForumPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2009-11-03 Version:14

Prediction Map
texaslefty Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
texaslefty Map


Prediction States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non48
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non48
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-1-1-2000-2
Rep+1+1+2000000+2
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
422
piepiepie

Analysis

Here are my final predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls, signed and sealed.

NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
SurveyUSA (10/27-11/1): Christie 42%, Corzine 40% (R+2)
Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/1): Corzine 47%, Corzine 41% (R+6)
Monmouth University (10/31-11/1): Corzine 43%, Christie 41% (D+2)

Prediction: Christie will win by 2% (GOP GAIN)


VIRGINIA (open seat)
Public Policy Polling (10/30-11/1): McDonnell 56%, Deeds 42% (R+14)
Mason-Dixon (10/29-30): McDonnell 53%, Deeds 41% (R+12)
YouGov (10/27-30): McDonnell 53%, Deeds 40% (R+13)

Prediction: McDonnell will win by 13% (GOP GAIN)


HISTORY
10/25: NJ R+1.33; VA R+13
10/18: NJ R+2; VA R+7.33
10/11: NJ R+1.33; VA R+10
10/4: NJ R+3.67; VA R+10.33
9/27: NJ R+5.33; VA R+6
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 13 0 100T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 26/37 60/74 81.1% pie 8 0 45T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 0 1T
P 2008 President 54/56 43/56 97/112 86.6% pie 18 0 55T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 4 0 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 3 0 9T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 5 50 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 3 4 113T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 2 4 10T
Aggregate Predictions 238/248 176/248 414/496 83.5% pie


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