Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-07-18 Version:1

Prediction Map
downwithdaleft Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
downwithdaleft Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Member Comments

By: auburntiger (R-FL) 2009-07-28 @ 22:46:37
Downwiththeleft, can you please enlighten a pessimistic Republican on the GOP ground game in your state. I have a hard time believing your confidence in a strong GOP victory. Thanks.

By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) 2009-07-31 @ 22:34:05
Hard time believing is certainly understandable, but the poll numbers are ridiculous. Christie's lead is over 10% and things just keep getting worse for Corzine.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-08-03 @ 13:31:44
Christie is likely to win, indeed. Keep in mind that state-level races do not necessarily have the same dynamics as national races. Corzine is pretty unpopular in NJ, and states like Vermont or Connecticut, which are even more liberal than NJ, have Republican governors. I think Christie can make himself acceptable to independents and moderates in both parties.

By: Olawakandi (D-IL) 2009-08-04 @ 10:51:44
Christie, and Schwarzenegger, are the republicans that can and could overcome party identification in those two states.

By: auburntiger (R-FL) 2009-08-06 @ 11:59:32
I watched an interview on Fox with Christie and I believe Hannity or maybe Wallace, and he was asked if he was moderate or conservative, and he said "conservative". Just amazed that his polling hasn't gone down a bit, not that I'm complaining of course :), but I've always thought that Conservative + New Jersey electorate = unelectable. Last Edit: 2009-08-06 @ 12:04:24

By: Olawakandi (D-IL) 2009-08-06 @ 14:30:57
Dems as well as Reps can lay claim to the title of reformers. Republicans lay claim to that in the form of crime fighting and he has picked a Lt.Governor tough on crime. Corzine is more of an establishment candidate and cannot claim that anymore.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-08-08 @ 05:54:31
needham, I guess you would be right generally, but here Corzine seems to have done such a poor job of selling himself to the electorate that they'd prefer a conservative over him. But keep in mind that Christie probably meant a New Jersey conservative, which is about the same as a Utah liberal ;-)

By: Olawakandi (D-IL) 2009-10-13 @ 12:48:53
The dynamics of this race have changed and I'm hoping for a Corzine victory. The trafficing violation and the Karl Rove connecting isn't looking favorable on Doug Christie. I'm am more optimistic now.

By: CR (--MO) 2009-10-31 @ 23:57:16
I don't think an aid resigning on drug charges today is helpful for Corzine either. I'll be interested to see the results of this close race.

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