PredictionsEndorse2010 Gubernatorial Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:8

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem6
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind1
 
Tos9
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+4+4-3-9-12437-8
Rep+3+9+120-5-56713+7
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
563521
piepiepie

Analysis

Republican Governorships:

Maine (LePage)
Connecticut (Foley)
Pennsylvania (Corbett)
Ohio (Kasich)
Michigan (Snyder)
Illinois (Brady)
Wisconsin (Walker)
Tennessee (Haslam)
South Carolina (Haley)
Georgia (Deal)
Alabama (Bentley)
Florida (Scott)
Iowa (Branstad)
South Dakota (Daugaard)
Nebraska (Heinnmann)
Kansas (Brownback)
Oklahoma (Fallin)
Texas (Perry)
New Mexico (Martinez)
Wyoming (Mead)
Utah (Herbert)
Idaho (Otter)
Arizona (Brewer)
Nevada (Sandoval)
Alaska (Parnell)

Democrat Governorships:

New Hampshire (Lynch)
Vermont (Shumlin)
Massachusetts (Patrick)
New York (Cuomo)
Maryland (O'Malley)
Arkansas (Beebe)
Minnesota (Dayton)
Colorado (Hickenlooper)
California (Brown)
Oregon (Kitzhaber)
Hawaii (Abercrombie)

Independent Governorships:

Rhode Island (Chaffee)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 7

Republican Governorships:

Maine (LePage) - Pickup
Vermont (Dubie) - Hold
Pennsylvania (Corbett) - Pickup
Ohio (Kasich) - Pickup
Michigan (Snyder) - Pickup
Illinois (Brady) -Pickup
Wisconsin (Walker) - Pickup
Tennessee (Haslam) - Pickup
South Carolina (Haley) - Hold
Georgia (Deal) - Hold
Alabama (Bentley) - Hold
Iowa (Branstad) - Pickup
South Dakota (Daugaard) - Hold
Nebraska (Heinnman) - Hold
Kansas (Brownback) - Pickup
Oklahoma (Fallin) - Pickup
Texas (Perry) - Hold
New Mexico (Martinez) - Pickup
Wyoming (Mead) - Pickup
Utah (Herbert) - Hold
Idaho (Otter) - Hold
Arizona (Brewer) - Hold
Nevada (Sandoval) - Hold
California (Whitman) - Hold
Oregon (Dudley) - Pickup
Alaska (Parnell) - Hold

Democrat Governorships:

New Hampshire (Lynch) - Hold
Massachusetts (Patrick) - Hold
New York (Cuomo) - Hold
Connecticut (Lamont) - Pickup
Maryland (O'Malley) - Hold
Florida (Sink) - Pickup
Arkansas (Beebe) - Hold
Minnesota (Dayton) - Pickup
Colorado (Hickenlooper) - Hold
Hawaii (Abercrombie) - Pickup

Independent Governorships:

Rhode Island (Chaffee) - Pickup

All races subject to change.


Version: 6

Republican Governorships:

Maine (LePage) - Pickup
Vermont (Dubie) - Hold
Pennsylvania (Corbett) - Pickup
Ohio (Kasich) - Pickup
Michigan (Hoekstra) - Pickup
Illinois (Brady) -Pickup
Wisconsin (Walker) - Pickup
Tennessee (Haslam) - Pickup
South Carolina (Haley) - Hold
Georgia (Deal) - Hold
Florida (McCollum) - Hold
Alabama (Bentley) - Hold
Iowa (Branstad) - Pickup
South Dakota (Daugaard) - Hold
Nebraska (Heinnman) - Hold
Kansas (Brownback) - Pickup
Oklahoma (Fallin) - Pickup
Texas (Perry) - Hold
New Mexico (Martinez) - Pickup
Wyoming (Mead) - Pickup
Utah (Herbert) - Hold
Idaho (Otter) - Hold
Arizona (Brewer) - Hold
Nevada (Sandoval) - Hold
California (Whitman) - Hold
Oregon (Dudley) - Pickup
Alaska (Parnell) - Hold

Democrat Governorships:

New Hampshire (Lynch) - Hold
Massachusetts (Patrick) - Hold
New York (Cuomo) - Hold
Connecticut (Lamont) - Pickup
Maryland (O'Malley) - Hold
Arkansas (Beebe) - Hold
Minnesota (Dayton) - Pickup
Colorado (Hickenlooper) - Hold
Hawaii (Abercrombie) - Pickup

Independent Governorships:

Rhode Island (Chaffee) - Pickup


All values have been determined using Real Clear Politics data on the governor's races and matches their no toss ups map.

All races subject to change.


Version: 5

Republican Governorships:

Maine (LePage) - Pickup
Vermont (Dubie) - Hold
Pennsylvania (Corbett) - Pickup
Maryland (Ehrlich) - Pickup
Ohio (Kasich) - Pickup
Michigan (Hoekstra) - Pickup
Illinois (Brady) -Pickup
Wisconsin (Walker) - Pickup
Tennessee (Haslam) - Pickup
South Carolina (Haley) - Hold
Georgia (Handel) - Hold
Florida (Scott) - Pickup/Hold
Alabama (Bentley) - Hold
Iowa (Branstad) - Pickup
South Dakota (Daugaard) - Hold
Nebraska (Heinnman) - Hold
Kansas (Brownback) - Pickup
Oklahoma (Fallin) - Pickup
Texas (Perry) - Hold
New Mexico (Martinez) - Pickup
Colorado (McInnis) - Pickup
Wyoming (Mead) - Pickup
Utah (Herbert) - Hold
Idaho (Otter) - Hold
Arizona (Brewer) - Hold
Nevada (Sandoval) - Hold
California (Whitman) - Hold
Oregon (Dudley) - Pickup
Alaska (Parnell) - Hold

Democrat Governorships:

New Hampshire (Lynch) - Hold
Massachusetts (Patrick) - Hold
New York (Cuomo) - Hold
Connecticut (Lamont) - Pickup
Arkansas (Beebe) - Hold
Minnesota (Dayton) - Pickup
Hawaii (Abercrombie) - Pickup

Independent Governorships:

Rhode Island (Chaffee) - Pickup


All values have been determined using Real Clear Politics data on the governor's races and matches their no toss ups map.

All races subject to change.





Version: 4

Maine: Governor Baldacci (D) is term limited but should remain in Democrat hands.

New Hampshire: Governor John Lynch (D) is a lock, no contest.

Vermont: Governor Douglas (R) is term limited. Lt Governor Brian Dubie is running ahead of his challengers.

Massachusetts: Governor Patrick (D) polls ahead and Baker (R) is floundering.

Rhode Island: Governor Carcieri (R) is term limited. Independent Lincoln Chaffee is favored.

Connecticut: Democrats appear strong in this state with Governor Rell (R) retirement.

New York: Now that Governor Paterson (D) is officilally out, and barring some wired unset in the primaries, Andrew Cuomo (D) is a lock.

Pennsylvania: Governor Rendell (D) is term limited. Bob Corbett (R) is favored and leading in the polls.

Maryland: Govenor O'Malley (D) is a lock, no contest.

Ohio: Former Congressman Kasich (R) and Governor Strickland (D) are locked in a tight race.

Michigan: Governor Granholm (D) is term limited and an absolute disgrace. GOP pick up.

South Carolina: State Representative Nikki Haley (R) looks to be odds on favorite.

Georgia: Tight race for the GOP against Barns (D).

Alabama: Byren (R) looks good in the polls.

Florida: Attorney General McCullum (R) is an early favorite and defeats all his Democratic challengers.

Tennessee: Governor Bredesen (D) is term limited. Possible GOP pickup.

Illinois: Republican is up in the polls.

Wisconsin: Governor Doyle (D) is out! Walker (R) looks to be in a strong position. I expect a GOP pickup.

Minnesota: Emmer (R) ahead in the polls.

Iowa: Branstad (R) is up in the polls.

Arkansas: Governor Mike Beebe (D) is a lock, no contest.

South Dakota: Governor Mike Rounds (R) is term limited and the race looks competitive, however, I think the state will remain in the GOP column.

Nebraska: Governor Dave Heineman (R) is a lock, no contest.

Kansas: I fully expect Senator Brownback (R) to be the next governor of this red state.

Oklahoma: Govrenor Brad Henry (D) is term limited and much like in Tennessee I feel the state is prime to fall into the GOP's column.

Texas: Governor Rick Perry (R) is fairing well against Mayor White (D) in the polls and I doubt in a year like 2010 that Texas will fall.

Wyoming: Governor Freudenthal (D) is retiring. Good news for us, this clears the way for the GOP to reclaim this seat.

Colorado: With Governor Ritter retiring the seat is again competitive. However, I still, due to the favorable year I think the GOP will have, think its possible purple Colorado will get caught up in the GOP wave.

New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) has captured the GOP nomination and become very competitive in the polls.

Arizona: Governor Jan Brewer (R) is steaming towards reelection and is doing well in the polls both for the primary and the general.

Idaho: Governor Butch Otter (R) is a lock, no contest.

Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) beat Governor Gibbons in the primary, seat should stay with the Republicans.

Oregon: Yeah I don't see a Republican win here. Democrats should have no troubles in this state.

California: I want to believe Meg Whitman (R) can beat Jerry Brown (D) but for now she's down in the polls. Wait and see.

Alaska: Governor Sean Parnell (R) seems to have had success in the few months he'd been in office. I fully expect him to win the election this fall.

Hawaii: Governor Linda Lingle (R) is term limited. I expect a Democratic pick up.


Version: 3

From local races to congressional contests things continue to look favorible for the GOP. I think the govenors' races will be no exception. There should be a signifigant shift, however, in the leadership of many states due the terrible economy that continues to staggnate. But still, this is the most positive environment for the Republicans since 2004. I expect gains.

Maine: Not much change here. Govenor Baldacci is term limited but the GOP does not see to have any strong challengers for this seat, especially when the state tilts Democratic. It'll probably go independent before it goes GOP.

New Hampshire: John Lynch is a lock, no contest.

Vermont: With Govenor Douglas term limited this liberal state ought to elect a Democrat. However, in recent polling, Lt Govenor Brian Dubie is running ahead of his challengers. So at this time I'll keep this blue state in the GOP column.

Massachusetts: I still believe this race is more a question of who wins the Democratic primary but I also said that about the senate race and now we have Scott Brown (R-MA). We'll have to see who emerges.

Rhode Island: Govenor Carcieri is term limited and the Democratic tilt of the state makes me think it will go blue. On the other hand I think this independent run by Lincoln Chaffee could be successful in a state like Rhode Island. For now I'll give it to the indies just to spice things up.

Connecticut: I wish Govenor Rell would stay on but since she's not I think this state goes Democratic unless the Lt Govenor is well liked and a GOPer. Again I'm unsure of the candidates here.

New York: Now that Govenor Paterson is officlally out, and barring some wired unset in the primaries, Andrew Cuomo looks like a shoo-win especially with Giuliani staying out the race. I wish Rick Lazio the best of luck.

Pennsylvania: Govenor Rendell is term limited and historically the PA govenor's manison flips back and forth about every 8 years or so. Corbett continues to lead his possible Democratic challengers and I see this state as a GOP pickup.

Maryland: Govenor O'Malley is a lock, no contest.

Ohio: The race here may be competitive but I believe former Congressman Kasich will win the day over Govenor Strickland, mostly due to the economy. I hear its a sad state of affairs in the Buckeye State.

Michigan: Govenor Granholm is term limited and an absolute disgrace. Her administration has helped leave Michigan in economic ruin. I look for this to be a big GOP pickup.

South Carolina: Leave it to a loser like Sanford to put such a red state in doubt. However, he's not on the ballot and the GOP looks to be rebouding to a degree. I except very Republican South Carolina to hold the line.

Georgia: This race is suprisingly more competitive than I'd have thought. However, Georgia ia a red state with a few blue wisps so I think we'll hold seat seate.

Alabama: A similar story to Georgia, I think we'll keep this seat too.

Florida: This race looks better and better for the GOP. Looks like the GOP Attorney General is an early favorite and defeats all his Democratic challengers.

Tennessee: Govenor Bredesen is term limited. This makes it possible for the GOP to reclaim this red state. The polling is encouraging and I except a pickup.

Illinois: Seems the Democrats are having trouble in their own backyard. I'm still not certain how much that will benefit the Republicans but for now its the most favorible climate we've had in Illinois for a long time. Still expect the Democrats to hold on though.

Wisconsin: Doyle is out! I expect the GOP to make a strong play here. I think it follows a similar story to other Midwestern and Rust Belt states. Except a pickup.

Minnesota: I guess with Coleman out and Govenor Pawlenty term limited this state looks to be drifting back to its Democratic roots. What a shame.

Iowa: Govenor Chet Culver is getting whalloped by Branstad in the polls. This could be a good year for the GOP in Iowa, I fully expect a pickup here.

Arkansas: Govenor Mike Beebe is a lock, no contest.

South Dakota: Govenor Mike Rounds is term limited and the race looks competitive, however, I think the state will remain in the GOP column.

Nebraska: Govenor Dave Heineman is a lock, no contest.

Kansas: I fully expect Senator Brownback to be the next govenor of this red state.

Oklahoma: Govenor Brad Henry is term limited and much like in Tennessee I feel the state is prime to fall into the GOP's column.

Texas: Govenor Rick Perry is fairing well against White in the polls and I doubt in a year like 2010 that Texas will fall. I fully expect to see Perry in the Govenor's seat next year.

Wyoming: Looks like Govenor Freudenthal is retiring after all. Good news for us, this clears the way for the GOP to reclaim this seat.

Colorado: With Govenor Ritter retiring the seat is again competitive. However, I still, due to the favorible year I think the GOP will have, think its possible purple Colorado will get caught up in the GOP wave.

New Mexico: Some thought this state would start to drift back to the right after so many years of Democratic rule. I don't see it but maybe Wilson will pull off a miracle.

Arizona: I had such high hopes for Govenor Brewer but it seems the voters don't think she's that great. Terry Goddard may have this race all sewn up. Looks like the only one that can beat him is this Martin fellow. Here's hoping.

Idaho: Govenor Butch Otter is a lock, no contest.

Nevada: Govenor Jim Gibbons looks like an easy defeat to me, especially with the state of the economy in Nevada. But Reid is losing big to Brian Sandoval, who looks good in the primary against Gibbons. Maybe the GOP can keep this seat after all.

Oregon: Yeah I don't see a Republican win here. Democrats should have no troubles in this state.

California: I'm not willing to wrtie off Meg Whitman yet. She seems like she may be a good candidate for debt overloaded and economically ruined California. But has Arnoald damaged the GOP to much? Jerry Brown may be too tough an oppenent. However the polls are encouraging at this point.

Alaska: Govenor Sean Parnell seems to have had success in the few months he'd been in office. I fully expect him to win the election this fall.

Hawaii: Well it was a good run with Govenor Linda Lingle while it lasted. But with the govenor is term limited in this heavily Democratic state and I don't think Lt Govenor Aiona has what it takes to keep the seat warm for the Republicans. I expect a Democratic pick up.

All races are subject to change as candidates are selected and the campigns unfold.


Version: 2

I've finally decided to update my gubernatorial predictions but the results have not changed much. Overall I see a favorible enviornment for the GOP but the Democrats have some strong gubernatorial candidates and incumbents. Now that is subject to change as the offical candidates are selected and the campign unfolds.

At this point I see the Democrats doing well in the Northeast (big shock) and in a couple of the western states. I think the Republicans are poised to make an almost clean sweep of the Midwest and pick up a couple southern seats. Its still, however, very early in the game.

Maine: Not much change here. Govenor Baldacci is term limited but the GOP does not see to have any strong challengers to this seat especially when the state tilts Democratic. It'll probably go independent before it goes GOP.

New Hampshire: John Lynch is a lock.

Vermont: With Govenor Douglas term limited this liberal state ought to elect a Democrat. However, I don't know who is running on the GOP side. Maybe the Lt Govenor is popular.

Massachusetts: I still believe this race is more a question of who wins the Democratic primary but I also said that about the senate race and now we have Scott Brown (R-MA). We'll have to see.

Rhode Island: Govenor Carcieri is term limited and the Democratic tilt of the state makes me think it will go blue. I will be interested to see how this independent candidate I've been hearing about plays.

Connecticut: I wish Govenor Rell would stay on but since she's not I think this state goes Democratic unless the Lt Govenor is well liked and a GOPer. Again I'm unsure of the candidates here.

New York: Now that Govenor Paterson is officlally, and barring some wired unset in the primaries, Andrew Cuomo looks like a shoo-win especially with Giuliani staying out the race. I wish Rick Lazio the best of luck.

Pennsylvania: Govenor Rendell is term limited and historically the PA govenor's manison flips back and forth about every 8 years or so. Corbett continues to lead his possible Democratic challengers and see this state as a GOP pickup.

Maryland: Govenor O'Malley is a lock.

Ohio: The race here may be competitive but I believe former Congressman Kasich will win the day over Govenor Strickland, mostly due to the economy. I hear its a sad state of affairs in the Buckeye State.

Michigan: Govenor Granholm is term limited and an absolute disgrace. Her administration has helped leave Michigan in economic ruin. I look for this to be a big GOP pickup.

South Carolina: Leave it to a loser like Sanford to put such a red state in doubt. However he's not on the ballot and the GOP looks to be rebouding to a degree. I except very Republican South Carolina to hold the line.

Georgia: This race is suprisingly more competitive than I'd have thought. However, Georgia ia a red state with a few blue wisps so I think we'll hold seat seate.

Alabama: A similar story to Georgia, I think we'll keep this seat too.

Florida: This race looks better and better for the GOP. Looks like the GOP Attorney General is an early favorite and defeats all his Democratic challengers.

Tennessee: Govenor Bredesen is term limited. This makes it possible for the GOP to reclaim this red state. Except a pickup.

Illinois: Even after teh disaster that was Rod Blagojevich I thought that Govenor Pat Quinn would have an easy election. Now I'm not so sure. I've moved the race to lean and we'll be watching it closely.

Wisconsin: Doyle is out! I expect the GOP to make a strong play here. I think it follows a similar story to other Midwestern and Rust Belt states. Except a pickup.

Minnesota: I guess with Coleman out and Govenor Pawlenty term limited this state looks to be drifting back to its Democratic roots.

Iowa: Govenor Chet Culver is getting whalloped by Branstad in the polls. This could be a good year for the GOP in Iowa, I fully expect a pickup here.

Arkansas: Govenor Mike Beebe is a lock.

South Dakota: Govenor Mike Rounds is term limited however, I think the state will remain in the GOP column.

Nebraska: Govenor Dave Heineman is a lock.

Kansas: I fully expect Senator Brownback to be the next govenor of this red state.

Oklahoma: Govenor Brad Henry is term limited and much like in Tennessee I feel the state is prime to fall into the GOP's column.

Texas: Govenor Rick Perry is fairing very well against KBH in the GOP primaries and defeats White in the polls. I fully expect to see Perry in the Govenor's seat next year.

Wyoming: Due to what I consider a trick, Govenor Freudenthal has managed to dodge the term limiting rules of the state with a ruling of the state supreme court. He is in a good position to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Colorado: With Govenor Ritter retiring the seat is again competitive. However, I still, due to the favorible year I think the GOP will have its possible purple Colorado will get caught up in the GOP wave.

New Mexico: Some thought this state would start to drift back to the right after so many years of Democratic rule. I don't see it but maybe Wilson will pull off a miracle.

Arizona: I had such high hopes for Govenor Brewer but it seems the voters don't think she's that great. Terry Goddard may have this race all sewn up. Maybe Sheriff Joe Arpaio will ride in to rescue the Republicans from defeat. He's probably more popular than Brewer at any rate.

Idaho: Govenor Butch Otter is a lock.

Nevada: Govenor Jim Gibbons looks like an easy defeat to me, especially with the state of the economy in Nevada. Reid looks to be doing well, but if Gibbons is not hte candidate there is hope that we could hold this seat.

Oregon: Yeah I don't see a Republican win here. Democrats should have no troubles in this state.

California: I'm not willing to wrtie off Meg Whitman yet. She seems like she may be a good candidate for debt overloaded and economically ruined California. But has Arnoald damaged the GOP to much? Jerry Brown may be too tough an oppenent. However the polls are encouraging at this point.

Alaska: Govenor Sean Parnell seems to have had success in the few months he'd been in office. I fully expect him to win the election this fall.

Hawaii: Well it was a good run with Govenor Linda Lingle while it lasted. But with teh govenor term limited in this heavily Democratic state I don't think Lt Govenor Aiona has what it takes to keep the seat warm for the Republicans. I expect a Democratic pick up.

All races are subject to change as candidates are selected and the campigns unfold.


Version: 1

As with my prediction on the congressional races I again forsee a very favorible year for the Republicans should the current trends continue as I believe they are likely to do. There are a lot of gubernatorial races this year and so many of them will depend on local issues. However, expect to see the economy as the overriding issue in most states, especially in the Rust Belt and those with high unemployment. I'll quickly go through each race.

Maine: Though Baldacci is term limited this state tilts Democrat more often than not. It may even go independent before it goes GOP. A problem that is a spoiler for the Republicans in this race as a strong third party candidate will usually drain away votes.

New Hampshire: John Lynch is a lock.

Vermont: Jim Douglas seems to be favored in this race and his approval remains decent in this blue state.

Massachusetts: Its more a question of who will win the Democratic primary than the general election.

Rhode Island: As Donald Carcieri leaves office the Democratic tilt of this state should turn it blue again.

Connecticut: Jodi Rell still seems well liked and popular here. I expect her to win reelection.

New York: With Rudy Giuliani more interested in the Senate and assuming Paterson is no where near the ballot, Andrew Cuomo should have an easy election against Rick Lazio I'm sorry to say.

Pennsylvania: The govenor's house seems to switch back and forth here between the parties every eight years or so. If the trend holds (as polls seem to show thus far) expect to be hearing from Govenor-elect Corbett.

Maryland: O'Malley may have some troubles but should be reelected.

Ohio: Ted Strickland is going to have a fight on his hands with former Congressman Kasich in economically ruined Ohio. And I think Kasich just may well win. He did help balance the budget in the 1990's.

Michigan: Same story as Ohio. Granholm is a disgrace and her administration may have paved the way for Cox's victory no matter who he runs against. Then again Detroit is full of suprises and votes.

South Carolina: Leave it to a loser like Sanford to put such a red state in doubt. Jim Rex will make it tough but I think Barrett can hold South Carolina for the Republicans.

Georgia: Has a red tilt, Oxendine just needs to get campigning and through the GOP primaries.

Alabama: Similar story to Georgia.

Florida: The GOP may have to fight for this seat. Better Christ stay in Tallahassee than try to go to Washington. We'll see.

Tennessee: Bredesen's term limit makes it possible for the GOP to reclaim this red state.

Illinois: Thanks to Rod Blagojevich for... almost handing the this state to the Republicans. Unfortunately I think that Pat Quinn will have no troubles keeping it safely in Democratic hands.

Wisconsin: Doyle is out! I expect the GOP to make a strong play here. I think it follows a similar story to other Midwestern and Rust Belt states.

Minnesota: I think that Coleman is well suited to be the next govenor and popular enough to win. Do the voters think so is the real question.

Iowa: Chet Culver is getting whalloped by Branstad in the polls. This could be a good year for the GOP in Iowa and the Midwest in general.

Arkansas: I see no threats to Mike Beebe at this time. I fully expect his reelection.

South Dakota: Expect the Republican tilt to continue.

Nebraska: Dave Heineman has a state with decent employment rates and is pretty popular. I see no threats to his reelection.

Kansas: Senator Brownback has this red state in the bag.

Oklahoma: As with Tennessee now that Brad Henry is out of the way I think the govenors office could lad in GOP hands.

Texas: Rick Perry ought to do fine in the Lone Star State despite what looks like a tough primary battle.

Wyoming: In a state where the word Democrat seems like a curse word Dave Freudenthal has managed to stay in office. But he is term limited and I see the state as a good pick up for the GOP. Candidates depending of course.

Colorado: It seems like most voters are ready to show Bill Ritter the door. Again will have to wait and see who the Republicans nominate to run against him.

New Mexico: Some thought this state would start to drift back to the right after so many years of Democratic sucess. I don't see it but maybe Wilson will pull off a miracle.

Arizona: I had such high hopes for Govenor Brewer but it seems the voters don't think she's that great. Terry Goddard may have this race all sewn up. Maybe Sheriff Joe Arpaio will ride in to rescue the Republicans from defeat. He's probably more popular than Brewer at any rate.

Idaho: I don't think Butch Otter has much to worry about thus far.

Nevada: On the other hand Jim Gibbons may have a lot to worry about. Especially with such high unemployment in the state. This could be a big Democratic pick up.

Oregon: Should stay with the Democratic tilt.

California: I'm not willing to wrtie off Meg Whitman yet. She seems like she may be a good candidate for debt overloaded and economically drained California. But has Arnoald damaged the GOP to much? Jerry Brown may be too tough an oppenent. We'll see.

Alaska: Sean Parnell will have had a year to prove himself as the new govenor and it looks like things in the last frontier are good. I expect Parnell to win.

Hawaii: Well it was a good run with Linda Lingle while it lasted. But in this heavily Democratic state I don't think Lt Govenor Aiona has what it takes to keep the seat warm for the Republicans. I expect a Democratic pick up.

Of course it is still very very early.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-01 @ 18:52:55 prediction Map
Final prediction.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie



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