PredictionsEndorse2010 Gubernatorial Predictions - Mechaman () ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-02-12 Version:2

Prediction Map
Mechaman MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Mechaman MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind9
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind4
 
Tos10
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+3+4-7-5-12257-8
Rep+4+4+8-3-6-9459-1
Ind+5+4+9000000+9


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
302010
piepiepie

Analysis

Voter no confidence in two-party system results in massive gains for Independent Governors around the nation.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 1

Note: this is not realistic, just a hypothetical scenario.
In a bad year for Congressmen, Democrats do surprisingly well in the gubernatorial elections due to inner turmoil between different GOP factions and numerous scandals involving GOP politicians. Independent candidates have a very successful year as independent governors are elected in the states of New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Maine. Of note:

Alaska: Controversy erupts (I know big shock right) with Sean Parnell and the Democrats ask the voters how many more corrupt GOP politicians they will stomach. The voters in kind vote Demcoratic Ethan Berkowitz into office.
California: After 8 years of Ahnuld, the voters overwhelmingly vote Jerry Brown as Governor of California.
Florida: A very narrow and shocking victory by Democratic candidate Alex Sink.
South Carolina: The controversies of the Sanford administration come back to haunt Andre Bauer in the gubernatorial election as Democratic candidate Jim Rex pulls off a squeaker victory.
Minnesota: Dissatisfaction with the Pawlenty administration finally comes full circle as the voters vote in the Democrats.
Illinois: The Republicans recapture the gubernatorial mansion thanks to some belayed blowover from Blagogate.
New York: Two words: Michael Bloomberg
Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee is elected in a mandate election as an independent governor of Rhode Island.
Vermont and Maine: Once again say "screw you" to the two party system and vote in independent governors.
Texas: After a bitter primary between Perry and Hutchison, the loser (either Perry or Hutchison) runs on an independent ticket and the Texas GOP becomes deeply divided over the election. And just for the hell of it Kinky Friedman runs again, therefore making yet another fourway Texas gubernatorial election. Thanks to the vote splitting and the fractured GOP, Democratic candidate Bill White wins with less than 40% of the popular vote.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 47/56 24/56 71/112 63.4% pie 2 12 670T684
P 2018 Senate 29/35 19/35 48/70 68.6% pie 1 93 306T483
P 2014 Senate 31/36 13/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 52 288T382
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 1 11 182T760
P 2010 Senate 27/37 9/37 36/74 48.6% pie 2 51 422T456
P 2010 Governor 20/37 10/37 30/74 40.5% pie 2 263 292T312
Aggregate Predictions 209/257 118/257 327/514 63.6% pie



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