PredictionsNewsEndorse2010 Gubernatorial Predictions - nkpatel1279 (D-MA) ResultsForumPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-08-03 Version:12

Prediction Map
nkpatel1279 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpatel1279 Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind1
 
Tos11
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+4+4-1-11-12617-8
Rep+1+11+120-5-56713+7
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
563323
piepiepie

Analysis

The 2010 Governors Race outcome.
Democrats are going to hold on to.
AR(Beebe-D)-Popular Incumbent.
CO(Hickenlooper-D)OPEN Seat-Strong DEM vs Weak GOP.
MD(O'Malley-D)-Mediocre DEM incumbent in Blue state.
MA(Patrick-D)-Mediocre DEM incumbent in Blue state.
NH(Lynch-D)-Popular DEM incumbent.
NY(Cuomo-D)-OPEN Seat- Top Tier DEM vs Weak GOP.
OH(Strickland-D)-Medicore DEM incumbent-swing state vs Mediocre GOP.
Republicans are going to hold onto.
AL(Bentley-R)-OPEN Seat in Red state.
AK(Parnell-R)-Red State incumbent.
AZ(Brewer-R)-immigration issue improved her popularity.
FL(Scott-R)-narrowly wins a 3 way race.
GA(Handel-R)-OPEN Seat in Red state.
ID(Otter-R)-Red State incumbent.
NE(Heineman-R)-Red State Incumbent.
NV(Sandoval-R)-OPEN Seat- Top Tier GOP vs Generic DEM.
SC(Haley-R)-OPEN Seat in Red State.
SD(Daugard-R)-OPEN seat in Red State.
TX(Perry-R)-Red State incumbent.
UT(Herbert-R)-Red State incumbent.
VT(Dubie-R)-OPEN Seat-Blue Stat Top Tier GOP vs Competitive DEM- strong Progressive 3rd party.
Democrats are going to pick up GOP seats in
CA-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top tier DEM vs Mediocre GOP.
CT-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Generic DEM vs Generic GOP.
HI-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top Tier DEM vs Generic GOP.
MN-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top Tier DEM vs Mediocre GOP.
RI-Chaffee-I.
Republicans are going to pick up DEM seats in
IL-Unpopular DEM incumbent in Blue State. Quinn losing this year- will not be a bad idea- Brady will be a lameduck for 4 years. then Lisa Madigan runs in 2014- knocks Brady out.
IA- Popular GOP challenger-Unpopular DEM incumbent.
KS- OPEN Seat in Red State.
ME- OPEN Seat- strong progressive 3rd party.
MI- OPEN Seat-
NM-
OK
OR
PA
TN
WI
WY

+7R.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-10-28 @ 16:56:10 prediction Map
Dubie isn't gonna win. VT has a 50% plus one rule for Governor The winner of the general election, whether its Shumlin or Dubie, will likely get under 50%. Then, the vote will go to the heavily Democratic Legislature which will pick Shumlin.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 194 0 63T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 23/37 56/74 75.7% pie 12 91 106T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 19 56T
P 2008 President 51/56 35/56 86/112 76.8% pie 1 51 324T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 1 51 28T
Aggregate Predictions 152/165 106/165 258/330 78.2% pie



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