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History of the Parties

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Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	8
Rep	17
Ind	1
Tos	11
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+4	+4	-1	-11	-12	6	1	7	-8
Rep	+1	+11	+12	0	-5	-5	6	7	13	+7
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	33	23

Analysis

The 2010 Governors Race outcome.
Democrats are going to hold on to.
AR(Beebe-D)-Popular Incumbent.
CO(Hickenlooper-D)OPEN Seat-Strong DEM vs Weak GOP.
MD(O'Malley-D)-Mediocre DEM incumbent in Blue state.
MA(Patrick-D)-Mediocre DEM incumbent in Blue state.
NH(Lynch-D)-Popular DEM incumbent.
NY(Cuomo-D)-OPEN Seat- Top Tier DEM vs Weak GOP.
OH(Strickland-D)-Medicore DEM incumbent-swing state vs Mediocre GOP.
Republicans are going to hold onto.
AL(Bentley-R)-OPEN Seat in Red state.
AK(Parnell-R)-Red State incumbent.
AZ(Brewer-R)-immigration issue improved her popularity.
FL(Scott-R)-narrowly wins a 3 way race.
GA(Handel-R)-OPEN Seat in Red state.
ID(Otter-R)-Red State incumbent.
NE(Heineman-R)-Red State Incumbent.
NV(Sandoval-R)-OPEN Seat- Top Tier GOP vs Generic DEM.
SC(Haley-R)-OPEN Seat in Red State.
SD(Daugard-R)-OPEN seat in Red State.
TX(Perry-R)-Red State incumbent.
UT(Herbert-R)-Red State incumbent.
VT(Dubie-R)-OPEN Seat-Blue Stat Top Tier GOP vs Competitive DEM- strong Progressive 3rd party.
Democrats are going to pick up GOP seats in
CA-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top tier DEM vs Mediocre GOP.
CT-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Generic DEM vs Generic GOP.
HI-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top Tier DEM vs Generic GOP.
MN-OPEN Seat in Blue state- Top Tier DEM vs Mediocre GOP.
RI-Chaffee-I.
Republicans are going to pick up DEM seats in
IL-Unpopular DEM incumbent in Blue State. Quinn losing this year- will not be a bad idea- Brady will be a lameduck for 4 years. then Lisa Madigan runs in 2014- knocks Brady out.
IA- Popular GOP challenger-Unpopular DEM incumbent.
KS- OPEN Seat in Red State.
ME- OPEN Seat- strong progressive 3rd party.
MI- OPEN Seat-
NM-
OK
OR
PA
TN
WI
WY

+7R.

Prediction History

Comments History - show

Version History

12: 2010-08-03 @ 13:45:07 11: 2010-07-28 @ 16:56:32 10: 2010-07-09 @ 12:05:44 9: 2010-06-09 @ 10:53:50 8: 2010-05-11 @ 10:33:21 7: 2010-04-04 @ 16:34:05 6: 2010-03-30 @ 12:41:41 5: 2010-03-29 @ 12:27:16 4: 2010-03-05 @ 13:03:01 3: 2010-02-25 @ 14:08:24 2: 2009-11-20 @ 11:11:41 1: 2009-11-17 @ 11:11:54 View Version

Member Comments

By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-10-28 @ 16:56:10
Dubie isn't gonna win. VT has a 50% plus one rule for Governor The winner of the general election, whether its Shumlin or Dubie, will likely get under 50%. Then, the vote will go to the heavily Democratic Legislature which will pick Shumlin.

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