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Date of Prediction: 2010-02-14 Version:2

Prediction Map
PaulB MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
PaulB MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind2
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Tos17
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+6+6-5-6-11448-5
Rep+4+6+100-7-77411+3
Ind+1+1+2000000+2


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
493217
piepiepie

Analysis

The states of Georgia, Illinois and Wyoming are all complete guesses. In Illinois, weak incumbent Pat Quinn, who has all the charisma of a wet blanket (as well as the awkward feeling), will be the underdog in an anti-incumbent year in the Land of Lincoln. A primary victory by State Comptroller Dan Hynes would have placed Illinois in the "Lean Democratic" column, but with the underwhelming Irishman Quinn leading the charge of the light brigade this year, I will put it in the GOP Column.

A way down South in the land of cotton the failed first term of Roy Barnes will be forgotten. The former Georgia Governor appears to me as the best organized of all the candidates running. He will most likely breeze to an easy win in the Democratic Primary, as Attorney General Thurbert Baker will see the writing on the wall and perhaps change his sights to the U.S. Senate election. The GOP Primary is set to be a viscous one with corrupt Congressman Nathan Deal, effeminate voiced Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, State Senate President Eric Johnson and pro-Confederate radio station manager Ray McBerry slamming away at one another in a primary that will make Georgia howl. At the end of this ballroom blitz I suspect that ill feelings in the party will part the ways for former Governor Barnes, once seen as the all but assured front-runner for the 2004 Democratic Presidential nomination, to retake the Peach Tree Manor in November.

Wyoming, the Land of Opportunity, is a strange contest to gauge. Governor Dave Freudenthal has yet to announce whether he will pull a Bloomberg and run for a third term. It is in my very humble opinion that even if the good governor seeks a third term he will be defeated by State House Speaker Colin Simpson, the scion of legendary Wyoming Senator Alan Simpson. Governor Freudenthal is suffering from the malady of the budget crisis- and illness which is effecting many a governor this year. The governor will also be haunted by his endorsement of Senator Obama in April 2008. This should NOT be an issue, but it will be one as the Republicans have discovered that playing the president against a governor is a two way street, a lesson that the "Bush happy" Democrats of 2006 and 2008 will soon learn.

This is my rundown, and I guess it is the best I can do. That's the way it is.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 28/37 17/37 45/74 60.8% pie 4 229 306T456
P 2010 Governor 32/37 17/37 49/74 66.2% pie 2 261 179T312
P 2004 President 40/56 5/56 45/112 40.2% pie 5 260 19701,994
Aggregate Predictions 100/130 39/130 139/260 53.5% pie



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