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Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	14
Rep	21
Ind	2
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	10
Rep	10
Ind	0
Tos	17
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+6	+6	-5	-6	-11	4	4	8	-5
Rep	+4	+6	+10	0	-7	-7	7	4	11	+3
Ind	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	32	17

Analysis

The states of Georgia, Illinois and Wyoming are all complete guesses. In Illinois, weak incumbent Pat Quinn, who has all the charisma of a wet blanket (as well as the awkward feeling), will be the underdog in an anti-incumbent year in the Land of Lincoln. A primary victory by State Comptroller Dan Hynes would have placed Illinois in the "Lean Democratic" column, but with the underwhelming Irishman Quinn leading the charge of the light brigade this year, I will put it in the GOP Column.

A way down South in the land of cotton the failed first term of Roy Barnes will be forgotten. The former Georgia Governor appears to me as the best organized of all the candidates running. He will most likely breeze to an easy win in the Democratic Primary, as Attorney General Thurbert Baker will see the writing on the wall and perhaps change his sights to the U.S. Senate election. The GOP Primary is set to be a viscous one with corrupt Congressman Nathan Deal, effeminate voiced Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, State Senate President Eric Johnson and pro-Confederate radio station manager Ray McBerry slamming away at one another in a primary that will make Georgia howl. At the end of this ballroom blitz I suspect that ill feelings in the party will part the ways for former Governor Barnes, once seen as the all but assured front-runner for the 2004 Democratic Presidential nomination, to retake the Peach Tree Manor in November.

Wyoming, the Land of Opportunity, is a strange contest to gauge. Governor Dave Freudenthal has yet to announce whether he will pull a Bloomberg and run for a third term. It is in my very humble opinion that even if the good governor seeks a third term he will be defeated by State House Speaker Colin Simpson, the scion of legendary Wyoming Senator Alan Simpson. Governor Freudenthal is suffering from the malady of the budget crisis- and illness which is effecting many a governor this year. The governor will also be haunted by his endorsement of Senator Obama in April 2008. This should NOT be an issue, but it will be one as the Republicans have discovered that playing the president against a governor is a two way street, a lesson that the "Bush happy" Democrats of 2006 and 2008 will soon learn.

This is my rundown, and I guess it is the best I can do. That's the way it is.

Prediction History

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2: 2010-02-14 @ 17:38:22 1: 2009-11-19 @ 11:22:55 View Version