PredictionsEndorse2010 Gubernatorial Predictions - haletow (--CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-07-27 Version:2

Prediction Map
haletow MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
haletow MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+7+7-1-4-56814+2
Rep+1+4+50-7-76511-2
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
29272
piepiepie

Analysis

Again, the economy is going to drive the election. But its just not incumbent Democrats that are in trouble. Its incumbent Republicans getting their fair share of blame. Take California, both parties are in deep trouble. Traditional, Democratic groups, like labor, Hispanics, working and middle class voters, plus educators have not forgotten that it was the Democrats that made deals with Republicans in cutting social programs, and implementing furloughs. While wondering where all of the billions the state spends is going to.

At the same time realizing that spending on social programs is less than 1% in the state. The same with education. Billions are spent, yet teachers are having to buy their own materials. Where does the money go? An audit or survey found that it went to administrators. That's a lot of money, and it makes them very wealthy. Look at the city of Bell in Southern California. The politicians robbed the city and its citizens blind. Making themselves very rich at the expense of its poverty stricken citizens.

Unions have made public employees, when they retire very rich. The state cannot handle retirement benefits at such extravagance. Republicans blame the poor, and those on welfare. Its easy to blame the "lazy." It gets peoples emotions all fired up. But if you look carefully, you would see that the money is being misspent on salaries, pensions, and luxuries. The state has a board of regents: University of California. A few years ago, one of these so-called talented regents retired at more than $1 million dollars a year.

And people wonder why the state is behind, financially. California is the poster child of spending lavishly on administrators and politicians.

Both candidates for Governor are in trouble in the state. Whitman has angered conservatives, and Brown isn't trusted by some of his constituents. They're both old, and just can't seem to connect with the voters.

Prediction in this state is that unions, and Hispanics, and African-Americans will decide the election. And only a tiny fraction of Hispanics need to come out. This is why Meg Whitman has sort of moved to the left in this state.

As for the other states, we see the economy pounding them as well. Do not be surprised to see a Republican win the Governorship in Obama's home state of Illinois.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 45/56 21/56 66/112 58.9% pie 3 41 614T678
P 2016 Senate 25/34 5/34 30/68 44.1% pie 1 312 361362
P 2016 Governor 8/12 2/12 10/24 41.7% pie 1 312 254T279
P 2012 President 53/56 12/56 65/112 58.0% pie 3 28 741T760
P 2012 Senate 27/33 1/33 28/66 42.4% pie 1 35 334T343
P 2012 Governor 8/11 1/11 9/22 40.9% pie 1 35 221T228
P 2010 Senate 29/37 6/37 35/74 47.3% pie 2 98 429T456
P 2010 Governor 27/37 2/37 29/74 39.2% pie 2 98 296T312
P 2008 President 52/56 28/56 80/112 71.4% pie 4 41 503T1,505
P 2004 President 51/56 34/56 85/112 75.9% pie 9 1 706T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 325/388 112/388 437/776 56.3% pie


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