Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	12
Rep	24
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	21
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+5	+5	-3	-9	-12	4	3	7	-7
Rep	+3	+9	+12	0	-6	-6	6	6	12	+6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
61	34	27

Analysis

Final Prediction
Changes:
CT: Foley's very successful attack adds seem to have swung this.
FL: Scott's a poor candidate. And it seems that early voting is not as decisive as it appeared to be, and there probably aren't going to be any strong coattails from Rubio. Moving this back to Sink, but this is the race I'm least certain of.
OR: I think that most pollsters, by ignoring cell phones, have under polled Democrats in certain states and this appears to be one of them.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	32/35	24/35	56/70	80.0%	1	0	147	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	27/36	61/72	84.7%	1	0	51	T	272
2020 President	51/56	42/56	93/112	83.0%	1	5	260	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	17/35	49/70	70.0%	1	3	309	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	9/11	19/22	86.4%	1	5	10	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	3	14	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	26/35	58/70	82.9%	1	0	15	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	1	2	38	T	372
2016 President	49/56	34/56	83/112	74.1%	2	0	114	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	19/34	49/68	72.1%	1	0	120	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	6/12	13/24	54.2%	1	0	119	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	30/36	65/72	90.3%	1	0	1		382
2014 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	1	0	39	T	300
2012 President	55/56	41/56	96/112	85.7%	4	1	265	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	16/33	47/66	71.2%	2	1	164	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	15/52	9/52	24/104	23.1%	7	-	183		231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	1	30	79	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	4	1	34	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	4	0	29	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	1	1	T	103
2008 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	12	0	13	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	23/33	56/66	84.8%	3	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	2	1	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	32/52	8/52	40/104	38.5%	6	-	106	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	35/49	18/49	53/98	54.1%	5	-	36	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	3	11	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	5	3	65	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	24/36	59/72	81.9%	3	1	36	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	799/926	560/926	1359/1852	73.4%