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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map
K.Dobrev Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
K.Dobrev Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+5+5-3-9-12437-7
Rep+3+9+120-6-66612+6
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
613427
piepiepie

Analysis

Final Prediction
Changes:
CT: Foley's very successful attack adds seem to have swung this.
FL: Scott's a poor candidate. And it seems that early voting is not as decisive as it appeared to be, and there probably aren't going to be any strong coattails from Rubio. Moving this back to Sink, but this is the race I'm least certain of.
OR: I think that most pollsters, by ignoring cell phones, have under polled Democrats in certain states and this appears to be one of them.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 55/56 41/56 96/112 85.7% pie 4 1 265T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 16/33 47/66 71.2% pie 2 1 164T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 51T
P 2012 Rep Primary 15/52 9/52 24/104 23.1% pie 7 - 183
P 2011 Governor 3/4 1/4 4/8 50.0% pie 1 30 79T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 4 1 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 4 0 29T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 1 1T
P 2008 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 12 0 13T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 3 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 2 1 50T
P 2008 Dem Primary 32/52 8/52 40/104 38.5% pie 6 - 106T
P 2008 Rep Primary 35/49 18/49 53/98 54.1% pie 5 - 36T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 3 11 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 5 3 65T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 24/36 59/72 81.9% pie 3 1 36T
Aggregate Predictions 420/505 279/505 699/1010 69.2% pie



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