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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:8

Prediction Map
texaslefty Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
texaslefty Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind1
 
Tos9
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+6+6-2-9-11538-5
Rep+2+9+110-7-76511+4
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
603426
piepiepie

Analysis

This time, I've mixed my gut feeling predictions with the formula prediction methods I've used since 2006.

Alabama: Bentley by 15.33%
Alaska: Parnell by 15.67%
Arizona: Brewer by 15%
Arkansas: Beebe by 25.67%
California: Brown by 14.33%
Colorado: Hickenlooper by 3.67%
Connecticut: Malloy by 5.67%
Florida: Sink by 1.67%
Georgia: Deal by 7.67%
Hawaii: Abercrombie by 5%
Idaho: Otter by 22%
Illinois: Brady by 4.67%
Iowa: Branstad by 10.5%
Kansas: Brownback by 27%
Maine: LePage by 11.33%
Maryland: O'Malley by 12.67%
Massachusetts: Patrick by 2.67%
Michigan: Snyder by 16.67%
Minnesota: Dayton by 1.33%
Nebraska: Heineman by 42%
Nevada: Sandoval by 15.67%
New Hampshire: Lynch by 8.33%
New Mexico: Martinez by 8.33%
New York: Cuomo by 22%
Ohio: Strickland by 1%
Oklahoma: Fallin by 18.5%
Oregon: Kitzhaber by 1.67%
Pennsylvania: Corbett by 9%
Rhode Island: Chafee by 8%
South Carolina: Haley by 8.33%
South Dakota: Daugaard by 13.67%
Tennessee: Haslam by 28%
Texas: Perry by 1%
Utah: Herbert by 25.33%
Vermont: Shumlin by 2%
Wisconsin: Walker by 8.67%
Wyoming: Mead by 36%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 13 0 100T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 26/37 60/74 81.1% pie 8 0 45T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 0 1T
P 2008 President 54/56 43/56 97/112 86.6% pie 18 0 55T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 4 0 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 3 0 9T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 5 50 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 3 4 113T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 2 4 10T
Aggregate Predictions 238/248 176/248 414/496 83.5% pie



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