Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:8

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	14
Rep	22
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	19
Ind	1
Tos	9
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+6	+6	-2	-9	-11	5	3	8	-5
Rep	+2	+9	+11	0	-7	-7	6	5	11	+4
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
60	34	26

Analysis

This time, I've mixed my gut feeling predictions with the formula prediction methods I've used since 2006.

Alabama: Bentley by 15.33%
Alaska: Parnell by 15.67%
Arizona: Brewer by 15%
Arkansas: Beebe by 25.67%
California: Brown by 14.33%
Colorado: Hickenlooper by 3.67%
Connecticut: Malloy by 5.67%
Florida: Sink by 1.67%
Georgia: Deal by 7.67%
Hawaii: Abercrombie by 5%
Idaho: Otter by 22%
Illinois: Brady by 4.67%
Iowa: Branstad by 10.5%
Kansas: Brownback by 27%
Maine: LePage by 11.33%
Maryland: O'Malley by 12.67%
Massachusetts: Patrick by 2.67%
Michigan: Snyder by 16.67%
Minnesota: Dayton by 1.33%
Nebraska: Heineman by 42%
Nevada: Sandoval by 15.67%
New Hampshire: Lynch by 8.33%
New Mexico: Martinez by 8.33%
New York: Cuomo by 22%
Ohio: Strickland by 1%
Oklahoma: Fallin by 18.5%
Oregon: Kitzhaber by 1.67%
Pennsylvania: Corbett by 9%
Rhode Island: Chafee by 8%
South Carolina: Haley by 8.33%
South Dakota: Daugaard by 13.67%
Tennessee: Haslam by 28%
Texas: Perry by 1%
Utah: Herbert by 25.33%
Vermont: Shumlin by 2%
Wisconsin: Walker by 8.67%
Wyoming: Mead by 36%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	13	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	26/37	60/74	81.1%	8	0	45	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	0	1	T	103
2008 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	18	0	55	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	4	0	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	3	0	9	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	5	50	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	3	4	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	2	4	10	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	238/248	176/248	414/496	83.5%