PredictionsEndorse2010 Gubernatorial Predictions - Political Lefty (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:2

Prediction Map
Political Lefty MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Political Lefty MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Tos9
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+6+6-1-9-10639-4
Rep+1+9+100-7-76511+3
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
633528
piepiepie

Analysis

I don't see too many surprises happening. Illinois is probably the closest to that. I think Ohio is a total coin toss. If I'm wrong about any, it'll probably be those two. Other than those, I'm least confident in predicting Connecticut and Rhode Island right now. I feel more confident in choosing the remaining tossups, although they obviously could quite easily go any way in the end.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 35/35 31/35 66/70 94.3% pie 1 0 1T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 1 0 5T272
P 2020 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 434T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 19/35 50/70 71.4% pie 1 3 274T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 5 147T293
P 2016 President 47/56 27/56 74/112 66.1% pie 1 0 473T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 21/34 51/68 75.0% pie 1 0 60T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 0 119T279
P 2014 Governor 30/36 19/36 49/72 68.1% pie 1 0 56T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 0 17T153
P 2012 President 56/56 49/56 105/112 93.8% pie 2 0 4T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 1 0 2T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 0 24T228
P 2010 Senate 36/37 30/37 66/74 89.2% pie 1 0 4456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 28/37 63/74 85.1% pie 2 0 11T312
P 2008 President 53/56 49/56 102/112 91.1% pie 7 1 3T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 4 1 9T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 2 1 9T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 101 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 16/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 184 257T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 2 160 107T312
Aggregate Predictions 614/659 454/659 1068/1318 81.0% pie



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