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Date of Prediction: 2012-05-19 Version:1

Prediction Map
Nik Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Nik Map


Prediction States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem4
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind0
 
Non39
 

Confidence States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem4
 
pie
Rep5
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non39
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000-4-4314-4
Rep0+4+4000213+4
Ind0000000000


Analysis

The GOP is in a place to potentially make substantial gains, in spite of the fact that there are only a few races taking place this year. MT and NC are in the bag, WA and NH are leaning slightly in our direction, and there is an outside chance of WV and MO being competitive to some extent. Other than that, IN, ND, and UT are safe for the GOP and DE and VT are safe for the Dems.

Update: June 29 - Washington and New Hampshire are leaning ever more strongly towards the GOP. I would now mark them both as lean if this were an official update. Missouri and West Virginia are also become more competitive, and even though they both still lean D at this point, it remains to be seen how the Obamacare decision from yesterday may affect these down-ticket races.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T
Aggregate Predictions 483/563 311/563 794/1126 70.5% pie



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