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Dow Jones

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Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		6 |	11 |	50 |
Dem	4
Rep	7
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 |	11 |	50 |
Dem	4
Rep	5
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	-4	-4	3	1	4	-4
Rep	0	+4	+4	0	0	0	2	1	3	+4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

The GOP is in a place to potentially make substantial gains, in spite of the fact that there are only a few races taking place this year. MT and NC are in the bag, WA and NH are leaning slightly in our direction, and there is an outside chance of WV and MO being competitive to some extent. Other than that, IN, ND, and UT are safe for the GOP and DE and VT are safe for the Dems.

Update: June 29 - Washington and New Hampshire are leaning ever more strongly towards the GOP. I would now mark them both as lean if this were an official update. Missouri and West Virginia are also become more competitive, and even though they both still lean D at this point, it remains to be seen how the Obamacare decision from yesterday may affect these down-ticket races.

Prediction History

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Version History

4: 2012-11-05 @ 20:48:28 3: 2012-10-05 @ 19:12:42 2: 2012-08-23 @ 19:12:58 1: 2012-05-19 @ 20:32:56 View Version