Election 2012 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-05 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	5
Rep	6
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	4
Rep	4
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	-3	-3	3	2	5	-3
Rep	0	+3	+3	0	0	0	2	1	3	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Changed MO and WV from lean to solid Dem; UT and ND from GOP > 70 to GOP > 60; and MT from strong GOP to toss-up.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 3

Changed MO and WV from lean to solid Dem; UT and ND from GOP > 70 to GOP > 60; and MT from strong GOP to toss-up.

Version: 2

The only changes are WA from toss-up GOP to toss-up Dem and DE from D>60 to D>50.

Version: 1

The GOP is in a place to potentially make substantial gains, in spite of the fact that there are only a few races taking place this year. MT and NC are in the bag, WA and NH are leaning slightly in our direction, and there is an outside chance of WV and MO being competitive to some extent. Other than that, IN, ND, and UT are safe for the GOP and DE and VT are safe for the Dems.

Update: June 29 - Washington and New Hampshire are leaning ever more strongly towards the GOP. I would now mark them both as lean if this were an official update. Missouri and West Virginia are also become more competitive, and even though they both still lean D at this point, it remains to be seen how the Obamacare decision from yesterday may affect these down-ticket races.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	2	108	T	115
2022 Senate	30/35	22/35	52/70	74.3%	7	1	243	T	305
2022 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	7	1	228	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	7	1	T	118
2020 President	46/56	30/56	76/112	67.9%	5	6	655	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	3	6	211	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	3	14	T	192
2018 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	8	0	106	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	29/36	61/72	84.7%	7	2	6	T	372
2017 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	2	98	T	149
2016 President	52/56	33/56	85/112	75.9%	8	0	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	20/34	51/68	75.0%	6	0	60	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	8/12	18/24	75.0%	6	0	3	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	1	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	16	0	4	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	16	0	22	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	4	1	1	T	153
2012 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%	11	1	702	T	760
2012 Senate	23/33	10/33	33/66	50.0%	5	1	319	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	179	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	20/52	63/104	60.6%	25	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	2	34	12	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	24/37	57/74	77.0%	20	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	20	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	10	1	T	103
2008 President	45/56	28/56	73/112	65.2%	21	0	791	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	22/33	52/66	78.8%	9	0	81	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	9	0	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	39/52	25/52	64/104	61.5%	15	-	33		271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	22/49	63/98	64.3%	14	-	7	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	51	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	21/33	51/66	77.3%	9	1	133	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	23/36	59/72	81.9%	9	1	36	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	18	1	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	860/994	582/994	1442/1988	72.5%