Election 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-08-27 Version:7

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	19
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	17
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+7	0	+7	-2	-1	-3	8	2	10	+4
Rep	+2	+1	+3	-6	0	-6	13	3	16	-3
Ind	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	-1

Analysis

A lot of changes in this update, mostly in the Midwest. Iowa/Ohio go from Lean R -> Strong R. Branstad has recovered from his poor news cycles in Iowa and should easily win re-election, whereas Kasich's opponent has essentially thrown in the towel. In the opposite direction, Michigan and Wisconsin have moved towards the Dems. While they remain toss ups and could easily go either way, I'm changing Wisconsin from Walker -> Burke and Michigan from Snyder -> Schauer. Also, I'm giving the Republicans the slightest of edges in Connecticut, moving it from Malloy -> Foley.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	54/56	50/56	104/112	92.9%	1	472	4	T	684
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	106	35	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	24/35	55/70	78.6%	8	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	8	3	56	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	11	1	T	149
2016 President	49/56	33/56	82/112	73.2%	7	1	149	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	22/34	54/68	79.4%	7	1	6	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	7	1	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	3	1	57	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	22	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	18/36	48/72	66.7%	22	0	73	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	276/309	210/309	486/618	78.6%