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Date of Prediction: 2014-08-27 Version:7
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
A lot of changes in this update, mostly in the Midwest. Iowa/Ohio go from Lean R -> Strong R. Branstad has recovered from his poor news cycles in Iowa and should easily win re-election, whereas Kasich's opponent has essentially thrown in the towel. In the opposite direction, Michigan and Wisconsin have moved towards the Dems. While they remain toss ups and could easily go either way, I'm changing Wisconsin from Walker -> Burke and Michigan from Snyder -> Schauer. Also, I'm giving the Republicans the slightest of edges in Connecticut, moving it from Malloy -> Foley.
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