For now, the only Republican incumbents I see as in trouble are Corbett (PA), Snyder (MI), Scott (FL) and LaPage (Maine). Three of these four are traditional blue states and the governors have underwater approval ratings, as well as what look to be strong Democratic challengers lining up. In Florida for this map, I'm assuming Crist will run against Scott and win a decent share of the moderate Republican vote. If it's someone besides Crist I'll probably call Scott a slight favorite.

I would at this point expect Walker (WI), Kasich (OH), Martinez (NM) and Sandoval (NV) to be re-elected. The states that went strongly for Romney but might be Dem targets in the future (Georgia and Arizona, for instance) show me no reason to think a Republican won't be elected in 2014. Deep red states will elect Republicans.

The independent in Rhode Island, Chaffee, is in big trouble. No doubt the Democrats can win easily in the tiny, deep-blue state, barring another wave Republican year.

For now, I have all Democratic-held seats staying that way except Arkansas. A few might change:

-Republicans have always shown a strange penchant for winning unexpectedly in Massachusetts when the Democrats show some ineptitude. (e.g. Scott Brown, and the GOP having the governor's seat from 1992-2006 from Weld to Romney.) We'll see if the Democrats can find a strong successor for Deval Patrick.

-Illinois: Pat Quinn is deeply unpopular, but many Democrats are hoping AG Lisa Madigan hops in and pounds Quinn into the ground in a primary. She looks like she's running, and in this deeply blue state could expect to blow a GOP lamb out of the water. The status of the Illinois Gov race will change depending on who the Democrats nominate.

- Maryland: O'Malley is leaving office and maybe getting ready for a presidential run. This race doesn't look high on anyone's radar, but a strong GOP candidate could make it interesting.

Dayton (MN), Hickenlooper (CO) Brown (CA), Malloy (CT) and Kitzhaber (OR) all keep their seats, for now. The only one who has declared is Dayton, who is probably safe in Minnesota. Hick won by a respectable margin in a three-way race, while Malloy and Kitzhaber won narrowly over their Republican opponents, but the two seem pretty popular. Brown crushed Meg Whitman in 2010 and there's no reason to think a Republican would beat him or any Democrat in 2014. However, all these seats are subject to change.