PredictionsEndorse2014 Gubernatorial Predictions - An Antineutrino (R-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:12

Prediction Map
An Antineutrino MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
An Antineutrino MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Tos12
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+40+40-2-210212+2
Rep0+2+2-40-415318-2
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
473017
piepiepie

Analysis

No major changes this time, I am sticking by my prediction of a Parnell upset. It looks like we're in for a truly exciting election night, with a massive number of races that will remain uncalled well into the night. While the narrative of the Senate races has been all about whether or not Republicans take control, gubernatorial races are all over the place. I would honestly not be surprised at all if I get ~5 races wrong completely, such is the nature of the election. My final projection is D+2, but any number of races could go either way at this point. We'll just have to see.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 32/35 24/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 311 147T305
P 2022 Governor 31/36 25/36 56/72 77.8% pie 1 311 158T272
P 2020 President 53/56 45/56 98/112 87.5% pie 2 132 74T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 22/35 52/70 74.3% pie 3 97 194T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 138 51T293
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 4 0 67T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 5 2 6T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 3 40T149
P 2016 President 50/56 37/56 87/112 77.7% pie 14 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 23/34 55/68 80.9% pie 11 4 2T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 9 3 67T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 274 72T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 17 1 42T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 17/36 47/72 65.3% pie 12 1 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 2 17T153
Aggregate Predictions 381/425 285/425 666/850 78.4% pie



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