PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - tancredo08 (R-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2007-06-27 Version:1

Prediction Map
tancredo08 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
tancredo08 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem0
 
Rep528
 
Ind10
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem0
 
Rep423
 
Ind0
 
Tos115
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-20-2-252000-252
Rep+19+2+242000313286+242
Ind+10+10000000+10


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
36221220
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Thompson v. Clinton v. Jesse Ventura


Member Comments
 By: CR (--MO) 2007-06-27 @ 23:26:38
OH, this is my favorite map of all. Another Reagan landslide, its like a dream. I wish this would come true, but Hillary will keep at least ten or fifteen states. prediction Map

 By: AnythingGoes41 (I-IL) 2007-06-27 @ 23:39:22
I've see Democrat maps just as wacky.
Hell, my own map is just about as crazy as this.

Last Edit: 2007-06-27 @ 23:39:50
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 By: RodB (--IL) 2007-06-28 @ 01:09:15
Hell my next is going to be all 538 to Bloomberg.prediction Map

 By: Joseph20072008 (D-PHL) 2007-06-28 @ 06:06:47
ANOTHER RIDICULOUS ELECTION MAP FOR REPUBLICANS.prediction Map

 By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2007-06-28 @ 07:33:33
YEAH, RIGHT - DID YOU KNOW I'M FATHER CHRISTMAS. DREAM ON...

Mind you, these extreme maps can be most interesting. Someone should do a major Dem sweep.
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 By: floating_to_sea (D-TX) 2007-06-28 @ 11:55:47
lol @ MA going 60% GOPprediction Map

 By: Fabian Fastman (D-CA) 2007-06-28 @ 12:12:58
Yeah, someone, do a map making all EV's except for NE-3 going to the Dems...

PS: Anythingoes, if there's anything I disliked about you, it's this; if you see any wacky Democrat maps, you start saying things like, "Oh, this won't go Dem, etc." But when you see an outrageous Republican map like this, you go like, "don't worry, there are wacky dem maps, keep up the good work man."

Last Edit: 2007-06-28 @ 12:17:29
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 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2007-06-28 @ 12:14:52
Hmm...I think you held back on your optimism.

Even more amusing is the 80% GOP DC.
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 By: AnythingGoes41 (I-IL) 2007-06-28 @ 12:42:12
Fabian, if I have been consistent about anything, then I hope it is about these two things:
1. It is too early to tell how 2008 will shape up and thats why I'm having fun with all of this right now.
2. Hillary Clinton is bad news for the Democrats and good news for the Republicans.
If my comments on Democrat landslide maps have been a bit more harsh then it is because they usually project Clinton as the winner.
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 By: Aizen (D-CO) 2007-06-28 @ 14:37:42
Well, it's not surprising that a Tancredo supporter would have an idiotic map like this.prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) 2007-06-28 @ 15:23:06
Remember tancredo08, Democrats are RED here not blue.prediction Map

 By: rsam2001 (R-IL) 2007-06-29 @ 17:29:37
Despite his name, Tancredo08 is predicting a race between Fred and Hillary and Jesse Ventura. I'm as big a Fredhead as anyone, and even I know Fred won't get 500+ EV and 80% of the DC vote. Maybe he meant to put DC in Hillary's column but gave it to Fred by mistake. I can't imagine Fred doing better in DC than in UT or AL or his home state. I'm sure Tancredo08 was just having a little fun.prediction Map

 By: RodB (--IL) 2007-06-30 @ 01:29:54
Oh its fun......FUNNY!!!!!!!!!!prediction Map

 By: gumball machine (L-CA) 2007-06-30 @ 13:09:34
Very funny, DWTL.prediction Map

 By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2007-07-07 @ 13:35:24
Just one serious comment (although not about this map, which is that this tancredo08 has lost control of his crayons):

I think any map maker who makes an extreme (and by I mean extreme either of the two parties getting above say 350 electorial votes -- and this includes such map makers as ConservRep) is forgetting how many people feel about the parties as a whole (and I mean both parties). There are too many people who are not registering with or in either party or identify themselves with either party (although there seems to be a lot more new younger voters becoming more Democratic).

Although, that being written I think electorial maps with a below 350 electorial votes win for either party make a little more sense if they favor Democrats if only because of the overall mood of the country towards the Bush administration that the Democrats and probably the news media will tie the Republican nominee whoever they are. (I don't think the Congressional approval ratings will elect or determine which nominee is elected, although I would say Senators Clinton and Obama both may have more to overcome or maybe gloss over if they are the nominees vs. if the nominees are Edwards or Richardson for the Democrats -- they need to take a look at what has happened to McCain on that issue the last couple of months -- because of the fact Clinton and Obama are currently part or a member of Congress). But, I can't forget the old saying that we are still 16-months away from the election, and in politics 16-months can be a lifetime (as far as events).


Last Edit: 2007-07-07 @ 13:36:40
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-07 @ 15:36:08
Humm, I would say Republicans have a fertile ground in which to work. If you noticed, cnbpjb my latest map shows a GOP victory with 344 points, I think. That other one was my landslide map, but I know you know that.

Democrats are not set for a landslide, at least not with these canidates on these issues. Besides, when is the last time a Senator got elected to the White House? The overall mood of the country is they are sick of the bickering. Congressional approval should be taken into account. If the Democrats can't govern effectivily with majorities and crossover Republicans in both houses, they can't govern at all.

The people want progress, they want results. And they want DC and the beltway to listen to them. Thompson is the perfect optimistic charismatic Reagan-like character to pull off my current 300+ GOP victory. History, canidates, and issues are my guide. They never fail.

Still cnbpjb good analysis.

Last Edit: 2007-07-07 @ 15:37:05
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 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-08 @ 00:13:18
No Republican can get 300 EV's. Please. the mood of this country is RABID anti-Republican at the moment VERY anti Iraq. The guy who has the same exact views on Iraq as Bush is not going to win let alone get 300 EV's. Not to mention the info coming out of Thompson being a mole to the Nixon during Wattergate.

"Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. The Democratic Party."

Favorable 51%
Unfavorable 38%

"The Republican Party"
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 53%

Dems +13, Republicans -17
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Democratic Party."

Very positive 12%
Somewhat positive 30%
Neutral 22%
Somewhat Negative 19%
Very Negative 16%

Total positive 42%
Total Negative 35%

The Republican party

Very positive 7%
Somewhat positive 21%
Neutral 21%
Somewhat Negative 23%
Very negative 26%

Total Positive 28%
Total negative 49%

Dems +7, Republicans -21



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 By: Orser67 (D-PA) 2007-07-08 @ 03:44:24
Fine, you think there will be landslide. But how could you rate most of the Northeast with high confidence for the Republicans? I don't think you even bothered to change anything in the confidence category.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-08 @ 13:26:39
Wow, those numbers are impressive Smash, especially since those are general. Lets see what Americans think of specific people. Hillary is disliked by 47% of the populace and they say they won't concider voting for her. And if the country is sooo anti-GOP, why did last month the GOP see an increase in the number of those identifing themselves as Republicans, its back where it was this time last year. Democratic controlled congress also owns the lowest approval rating of any congress since the gallup polls started tracking it.

One election does not prove anything. Before that we were winning elections left and right. Those numbers can always change. Plus according to rasmussen a majority of Americans trust Republicans more than Democrats on national security and immigration (that only happened after amnesty failed). So I don't think that 300 EV, with Bush not running, is impossible.

Last Edit: 2007-07-08 @ 13:27:45
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 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-08 @ 21:15:20
ConservRep

For starters you are wrong, only national security and that is a 1 point GOP advantage, Dems have a 6 point advantage on immigration. And well your getting that from one pollster, a pollster whose results have traditionally been much more GOP than any other pollster on the face of the earth.

Casing point Rasmussen's Bush approval #'s are at an ABSURD 38%, no other pollster has him above 32%, and the AVERAGE of the last SEVEN polls is UNDER 30% at 29.4%, yet rasmussen has him at 38%???? Something is VERY wrong there.

Bottom line is their is a VERY anti GOP mood in this country, just look how the two parties are viewed.
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-08 @ 23:21:42
Well I'm not wrong, I'll start there. Rasmussen shows that the GOP is more trusted on immigration than Democrats by I think 4 to 5 points. That occurred after the amnesty bill died in the Senate.

As I have said, I don't rely on polls. I think them good places to start, that is all. I do trust rasmussen more than the others due to it good track record and relibility. CNN, NBC, and other MSM polls lean just as much to Democrats as you claim rasmussen does to the GOP.

Bottom line, the country is not as anti-GOP as you think. I mean, you won a single election. Till that point since 1998 we had constantly won. And you won by narrow margins. It was a unique event, even Democrats that I have heard on the news say that. Yes the president has a low approval rate, I would include myself in that. But Bush is not running again.

The GOP was beaten in 2006, I give you that. They went to DC and they spent like Democrats and they abused their power. But the House is not very ethical these days either, earmarks come to mind. The signs of the GOP rebuilding and picking up steam are all around us and in 2008 we just let the people decide.
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 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-09 @ 02:06:45
first of you are still wrong on the Rasmussen immigration poll. The GOP has an edge among unaffiliated voters on the issue, but the Democrats have the overall edge on the issue.

Rasmussen was basically good in 04, thats about it, they were BRUTAL in 2000 (Bush up 9). in regards to how Rasmussen compares to the others. Well chances are when one poll shows results that are totally different from every single poll out there, well that one poll is wrong, not every single other poll. Again, on the Bush approval polls, not only is Rasmussen above everyone else, but his poll isn't even remotely close to anything, including Fox.

As far as the country being in an anti-GOP mood. Again look at the rate the parties poll questions, the GOP's numbers in those polls are absolutely HORRENDOUS, and MUCH MUCH worse than the Democrats numbers.



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 By: Fabian Fastman (D-CA) 2007-07-09 @ 08:31:14
I don't think most Republicans really get how detested Bush is hated right now.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-09 @ 16:28:34
Again with the poll numbers, poll are not the end all and be all of American opinions. They told me in 2004 Bush was toast. And rasmussen did a good job in 2002, 2004, and 2006. As for 2000, I think all the major networks didn't do that great.

Rather than go round and round and have you and I repeat the same things to each other and say your wrong, I am just going to agree to disagree.

What have the Democrats accomplished, NOTHING. Have have done nothing. The House is a disaster and the Senate is a joke. They can't even govern with cross over Republicans. Bush is disliked, I dislike him and I voted for him, lesser of two evils. But Bush is not running any more and the party as immigration has shown is moving beyond him.

All of DC is out of touch with the people and the Democrats were sent there to fix the problem, but nothing has changed. The people don't want endless investigations they want results.

I would say be careful my Democrat friends. The GOP underestimated you in 2006. Now you underestimate us. The people want real solutions and they are going to look at canidates and issues. Sorry, Obama, Edwards, and Clinton don't compare to Rudy or Fred.
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 By: Fabian Fastman (D-CA) 2007-07-09 @ 20:45:24
Wait, guys, isn't this that idiot who predicted a +12 net gain for the Republicans in 2006?prediction Map

 By: CultureKing (D-WA) 2007-07-09 @ 23:39:17
yeah, um... ConserveRep I just think you need to realize one thing, the american public is angry at the democrats because they have not been able to stand up to Bush (how can you if you only have a one seat majority in the senate). Each time they have whatever bill they put forward just gets rejected and lets face it, they dont have a big enough majority to override it. Overall the american public is much more against Bush and the Republicans than against the congressional democrats and if you can't see that right now then you may have some problems.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-10 @ 00:04:23
Hey, the Democrats are in charge, they have enough cross over Republicans. If you feel you have the support of the people, do it, cut all funds to the war, every last dime. Bush will be forced to bring them home, give him only the amount of money to pull our forces out to the nearest bases. Go for it and we'll see what happens both in Iraq and here at home.

There is a long time to go before 2008, and the Democrats are sowing some their seeds today they are accountible now too. As I have said we have to wait and see.
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 By: RodB (--IL) 2007-07-10 @ 00:09:56
ConservRep you really thought the republicans would have a +12 gain in 2006?prediction Map

 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-10 @ 00:21:07
Conservrep

Calling a state too early is a major difference from having totally wacked out polls. Virtually every poll had 2000 as a very close election with one exception which had a Bush landslide. That was totally asinine.

As far 2004, well your simply wrong. Rasmussen did a good job in 04, I will give you that, but to suggest most the polls had it going the other way in 04 is just plain and simply wrong. Virtually all the polls had Bush winning.

As for as 02 & 06, Rasmussen did a decent job, but nothing brilliant by any stretch of the imagination. What he is doing now though is just absurd, Bush @ 39% approval??? Umm WHAT????


To the second part. Well again Americans want a timetable for withdrawal, which is what the Democrats tried to put forth and was vetoed by Bush.

As far as how the candidates are well, they see Obama, Edwards, Clinton and they see candidates who want to change diection in Iraq, want to egt out, but tdo so in an orderly fashion, set a timetable and gradually leave within a year or so. That is EXACTLY what the American public wants. To say well cut all funding has nothing to do with what the candidates are suggesting, its basically just making stuff up... Then the voters see Thompson & Giuliani who basically want to continue down this Bush path, no exit plan, no timetable for withdrawal, just the same thing. The American public doesn't want. What the American public wants, is what the Democrats want an exit startegy and a timetable for withdrawal, but the Dems are unable to get that because of the veto and lack of GOP support to get to the 2/3 needed to override
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-10 @ 01:00:01
First thing FF, I am not an idiot. Second FF and RodB, no I was not the one who predicted the Senate would gain 12 seats. In fact I was certain we would loose the House and we did. I had hoped to keep the senate by 1 to 3 seats but that did not happen either. I have only been posting here since May so I would not have been around in 2006.

Now Smash, the president aside, what makes you think that Rudy and Fred will follow his same course. They are going to define their own course and direction. They want to win the war, as I believe many do, not retreat. We don't need a timetable to tell our enemies when we are going. What we need to do is to wait for the military's september report. I would favor a non-timetabled gradual reduction of our forces to a peacekeeping operation similar to Afganistan.

We will probably disagree till November 2008, I don't really mind. I also don't mind if I am the lone voice here either. I have always been an optmist. I believe the American people will look at what their choices are and decided then. And Iraq is not the only issue. Anything is possible.
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 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-10 @ 01:10:39
Consevep

Everything that has come out of Thompson & rudy's mouth regarding Iraq has basically been the same crap that Bush has spouted on it, which is basically just stay there & hope
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-10 @ 01:14:49
We want to win, and remember this is the primaries. They are trying to show conservatives and Republicans that they will be tough on terrorism. Who ever wins the primary will lay out a definite plan for how they wish to handle Iraq and by then we may be in a different situation there in which case we just have to see how it plays out.

Last Edit: 2007-07-10 @ 01:19:50
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 By: equern (D-CA) 2007-07-10 @ 02:20:10
Can I have some of what you're smokin?

I just returned from New England, and while things could change...if the Republican candidate (most espcially Romney) started parting the seas, walking on water, and sporting a halo...the Democratic candidate would win in a landslide.
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 By: Fabian Fastman (D-CA) 2007-07-10 @ 07:10:03
ConservRep, I wasn't referring to you; it was to tancredo08.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-10 @ 09:16:22
Oh sorry about that FF. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-07-10 @ 10:30:10
This is DownWiththelefts joke map... prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2007-07-10 @ 11:00:49
This map is exactly like DWTL's gubernatorial map in 2006 where he put safe Dem seats in play for the GOP and used 1 state as an independent state.

Last Edit: 2007-07-10 @ 11:20:38
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-10 @ 17:19:04
I haven't seen downwiththeleft in a while, I wonder where he's gotten too? prediction Map

 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-11 @ 01:09:44
Conserv

Downwith the left is Tancredo 08
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-11 @ 09:14:31
Ah, that expains a gew things. But I thought DWTL was from New Jersey, oh well I guess I did not pay attention. prediction Map

 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-11 @ 17:32:53
he is from NJ, he had a NY avatar on the forum for awhile as he was staying in NY for part of the summer at his grandparents who live in NYprediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-07-11 @ 17:59:10
Guys, be careful if you disagree with this guy, or he will call you a terrorist, like he did my good friend!prediction Map

 By: AnythingGoes41 (I-IL) 2007-07-11 @ 18:49:06
Anyone seen Ryer lately? prediction Map

 By: Smash255 (D-NY) 2007-07-11 @ 19:06:57
ahh ryer what a laugh, no haven't seen him and well considering what this is what he had happening the day before election day

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1758

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2006/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2311

I can't say I'm surprised he hasn't shown his mug around here since
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 By: AnythingGoes41 (I-IL) 2007-07-11 @ 19:11:54
LOL Well he did have the Minnesota governor's race right on the money...prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) 2007-07-12 @ 14:33:45
tancredo08

Shooting for that 32% accuracy rating again?
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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2007-07-12 @ 21:34:42
OR and MN are clearly lost the GOP, due to the war in Iraq. I think at the very least the Dems would win those.

Last Edit: 2007-07-12 @ 21:37:14
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 By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) 2007-07-22 @ 19:55:52
Ah, Tancredo08 always the master predictor! Just remember that I (meaning DWTL) have the longest current streak of predicting races correct having been the only one on the forum to call TX-23 for Rodriguez and LA-2 for Jeffersonprediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-07-31 @ 06:58:47
Hey Tancredo08, loved the map, but it will never happen. Buddy, you filled in the wrong color. In this case, it should all be red. DEM-red.

The best thing to do is to sit back, drink tea, and wait for the finicky american public to really start answering polls with what they really think.

A lot of people say, GWB is leaving a vacuum behind. I ask, what kind of vacuum? Believe me, there are just thousands of americans who could fill his shoes this minute.

Rudy is a candidate who will have mass appeal. Hillary as well. I know, I know, the right just loves to demonize her (Oh, my God, Hillary and the anti-Christ!! Run for your lives.... EEEEEK!!!), but she is, in reality, every bit as appealing and seems to be picking up steam everywhere.

Whether you are for or against the Iraq war is not moot. The fact that is is a big, fat, millstone around the GOP's neck is your problem, not mine. So, let the chips fall where they will. And Hillary, for good or for bad, will probably win and then the right will have four years to scream: Oh, my God, Hillary and the anti-Christ!! Run for your lives.... EEEEEK!!!
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-07-31 @ 11:29:28
Well if she gets elected at least we can get the House back in 2010 and it won't be that hard. If Iraq becomes successful as the signs that the surge is working become more appearent I think Iraq becomes the millstong around the Democrat's neck. But I like you Hillary joke, I've used it a time or two myself :))prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2007-08-01 @ 01:24:43


Last Edit: 2007-08-01 @ 01:28:47
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-08-12 @ 07:41:33
will never happen. dream on. But it is a creative map...prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-09-12 @ 09:00:29
Hey, here's a Unity08 ticket for you:

Tancredo / Ellison

:)
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 By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2007-09-14 @ 21:01:41
Three words to describe this map:

Not gonna happen.

Actually "gonna" is not a word that's just the way we talk in West Virginia Ha Ha Ha.
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 By: the rascal king (D-MA) 2007-09-14 @ 21:17:47
the blue is for the democrats right?prediction Map

 By: benconstine (D-VA) 2007-09-18 @ 21:27:43
This map is will not happen even if Jesus Christ campaigns for the Republicans.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-09-19 @ 00:03:18
Now this is one of my favorite maps here!prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-09-19 @ 00:13:22
ConservRep, this map is a joke map, I assume you know that.. Right?prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-09-19 @ 00:20:32
Of course. prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-09-19 @ 02:13:57
no, we are always serious here, 24/7 :)prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2007-12-05 @ 00:43:04
It will be a cold day in HELL when republicans carry Washington D.C. as it would if democrats carried Utah lmao lol lolprediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-04-19 @ 17:40:51
And also this map, which we fooled around with last December (feels like a million years ago, eh?), with all that BLUE BLUE BLUE!!!!!!

Last Edit: 2008-04-19 @ 17:41:13
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-06-05 @ 15:21:03
This unrealistic Republican map notwithstanding, the vast majority of the unrealistic maps belong to the Democrats. Just because one is a Democrat does not mean that one has to practice self-delusion. Come on people, wake up! Huge swaths of the country will always be Republican. You've got to consider the world outside Harvard Square or Berkley or wherever it is that you guys are practicing your delusional politics. This election is going to be a nail-biter and we'll be really lucky to come out on top...

Last Edit: 2008-06-05 @ 15:21:44
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 By: Conservative (R-MT) 2008-06-06 @ 13:03:26
Tennessee is still too solid.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 24/56 12/56 36/112 32.1% pie 1 496 14931,505
P 2008 Senate 17/33 7/33 24/66 36.4% pie 1 138 405407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 15/33 6/33 21/66 31.8% pie 4 39 465465
P 2006 Governor 18/36 5/36 23/72 31.9% pie 3 39 312312
Aggregate Predictions 74/158 30/158 104/316 32.9% pie


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