Date of Prediction: 2008-10-19 Version:13
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Version: 11 Obama vs McCain. A scenario where Obama could win without winning PA and OH Version: 10 Obama vs Huckabee. I know I'm probably being generous with Suckabee, but I am, by nature, a pessimist. Yes, I believe states like Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland will go 60=% for Obama. Tax Hike Mike and is refusal to believe in evolution is going to get him KILLED up in the Northeast. Economically conservative, crusty yankees will not support Huckabee. Huckabee does about the same in the South and the plain states. Those states are the ones that worry about "family values." The West Huckabee will do absolutely terrible too. The West has some of the highest amount of non-religious people so Huckabee's religious bonus will have no effect out here. Plus, Obama is a great state for the West. Hillary, no, Obama, yes. Just look at the fundraising numbers. NV, NM and CO all go Dem and MT, AZ, Idaho, WY all take a strong swing toward the Dems. Lastly Ohio... Obama actually isn't a great candidate for there and Huckabee would appeal to the "boonies" out there. Obama loses it in a close one but it turns out he doesn't need it. Version: 2 I think Vermont, RI and New York can get above 60% next election as the Northeast trends even more against the Republicans - they were close to breaching 60% in 2004. I also don't think Texas will get above 60% since Bush won't be the nominee.
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