Date of Prediction: 2008-10-19 Version:6
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 112)
Analysis
This is based of about a 3 point Obama win. Florida and Ohio are the two closest states in this scenario and I think Florida leans slightly more democratic this time. Both are pure tossups though. Then we have Mo and Nc. I think they come home to Mccain in the end and he wins by at least a couple points in each state. I expect about the same kind of margin for Virginia and Nevada but in the opposite direction. I think Obama would win Colorado and NH by at least 4-5 points in this scenario, thus we can see he has a structural advantage in this election. Mccain might win the PV by about a point but could still lose the election.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 5 Obama just does well enough in Iowa as well as the front range to give him the win. It will be close in Nevada, Ohio and Virginia although they will be irrelevant as to who wins the election. Michigan and Pennsylvania are two states that Mccain can and should target. He also desperately needs to hold on to Colorado and New Mexico because without them he has virtually lost the election. Only long shot wins in either Michigan or Pennsylvania will remedy that situation. Oh and Mccain also needs to hold on to Ohio, something which seems less and less likely as the economy sours. Version: 4 This is a map for OBAMA VS MCCAIN: Version: 3 Clinton vs Romney: Version: 2 McCain vs Hillary: Version: 1 obama v mccain
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