The only toss-up state I'm giving to McCain is Nevada. Barely. However, I'm giving North Dakota and Montana to Obama.

Obama vs. McCain.

I welcome any comments about my map, as long as they are respectful and analytical.

Whatcha think????

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. John McCain (R)

Oklahoma doesn't like McCain that much, even though he may win our primary. They like Clinton better, so thats why I have them in the red column.

McCain may very well win Pennsylvania, but lose Ohio.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are now lean Democrat, and not toss-up Democrat

Arkansas, Missouri, West Virginia, and Nevada are toss-up Democrat

North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and Kentucky are lean-Republican, not strong Republican

Colorado and New Mexico stay with McCain, and I may put Nevada in his column, as well.

Obama vs. McCain

Christmas 2007 Prediction:

The only change is I'm putting Oklahoma back to a Republican Toss-Up. I think it will easily be a toss-up, and could go to the Democrats, but I think it will be a very close Republican win, probably in the mold of 1976 when Carter lost with nearly 49% of the vote.

Oklahoma will be competitive in 2008, its a Republican toss-up.

Giuliani will have a tough time carrying West Virginia, so its a Democrat Toss-Up.

Iowa can go either way right now. I've got it as a Democratic Toss-Up, but I'm not very confident on that at all.

Late October Update:

Oklahoma is lean-Republican.
Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia are now GOP toss-ups.
New Mexico goes Democrat.
New Hampshire is now lean-Democrat given its leftward shift.
The Republican will not get 70% in any state.
The Democrat will get 70% in Vermont and Massachusetts
The Democrat will get 80% in the District of Columbia.

This is a very narrow win for the Democrats, closer than Bush over Kerry in 2004, and not too much wider than Bush over Gore in 2000.

I may be giving too much credit to the Democrats, but this is how I see it. I'm giving each candidate 200 EV's to start.

I am a believer in the Democratic trend in the Southwest, including New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.

I just saw some SurveyUSA polls that lead me to put Oklahoma in kind of a "lean-republican-toss-up" spot.

Missouri will be a toss up leaning Democrat.

With no Bush on the ballot, Texas will go less than 60% for the Republican.

With all the trouble with Sen. Ted Stevens in Alaska, I dropped them a notch.

I'm seeing more evidence of Michigan staying Democrat, though I am putting them in a leaning state. That is up from a toss-up that I had them in my earlier prediction.

I'm thinking the Kansas City metro will become even more Democratic and thus I dropped the state of Kansas from >60% to >50%.

With the unpopularity of the Iraq War, Vermont and Massachusetts will go >70% for the Democrat.

New Hampshire is trending leftward, so I'm putting them lean Democrat.

Maine is probably leaning Democrat, though I have the 2nd CD as toss-up.

This is based on Rudy Guiliani vs. Barack Obama.

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