Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:21

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	365
Rep	173
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	318
Rep	159
Ind	0
Tos	61

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	+1	+113	0	0	0	20	2	252	+113
Rep	0	0	0	-9	-1	-113	22	2	173	-113
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
93	51	37	3	2

Analysis

Final prediction

Obama-Biden 52%
McCain-Palin 47%

Senate 58D - 42R
House 256D - 179R

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 20

Slight change (MT to Dem, WV to Rep) but overall prognosis the same - Democratic sweep.

Obama-Biden 52%
McCain-Palin 46%
Other 2%

Version: 19

This map depends on a stellar performance by Obama in the last debate, flawless execution in Democratic turnout, continued good news for Obama and little or no Bradley effect. In short, best possible scenario.

Obama-Biden 54%
McCain-Palin 43%
Nader less than 2%
Barr less than .5%

Version: 18

Obama-Biden 51%
McCain-Palin 48%

Version: 17

This will come down to the last week before the election. If Obama-Biden is 5 points or more ahead on election day in the RCP average, they will win narrowly. If Obama-Biden is less than 2% ahead McCain-Palin will win narrowly. The debates and world affairs will decide this election.

Version: 16

Obama-Biden 51.1%
McCain-Pawlenty 46.4%
Barr - 1.2%
Nader - .7%
Other - .6%

Assumes the Obama tour goes well overseas.

Version: 15

Two polls showing Obama with double-digits leads have me delirious, I know. But this is my interpretation of the map as it would appear with a 10-point Obama victory. Highly unlikely, almost impossible...almost.

Version: 14

Based on recent state polling:

Changed NH from R to D
Changed NV from D to R

Based on intuition changed MO from D to R.

Increased some of the margins for Obama based on strength in current polling and his withdrawal from the public financing system.

Final numbers:
Obama - 50.4
McCain - 47.8
Barr - 1.2
Nader - .4
Other - .2

Version: 13

I've changed my mind again (I'm beginning to feel a bit of split personality disorder coming on). The dream ticket is never going to happen. After Clinton upstaged Obama by not conceding the nomination she basically just threw away the vice presidency.

So now I'm back to Webb, Biden, Kerrey, Nunn or Clark as the likely choices.

Bob Barr gets 2%.

Nader gets less than 1%.

Obama 50 - McCain 47

Version: 12

I've been stubbornly refusing to accept an Obama-Clinton ticket but it now seems inevitable as the only path to bridging the differences between supporters of these two candidates.

Obama-Clinton versus McCain-Crist

Assumes the Clintons would have the power to pull Arkansas and Missouri, which is probably a stretch.

I still think Obama-Clinton would be a disastrous combination in the White House but I don't see any other path to victory.

Version: 11

Laying off the throttle a bit - my last prediction was a overly optimistic for Obama.

Clinton is looking increasingly dangerous again with talk of disenfranchisement and taking it all the way to the convention over Michigan and Florida. Where's the response from the Obama campaign? They're missing in action on the issue.

Obama-Webb or Obama-Clark
McCain-Pawlenty or McCain-Crist

I would love to see McCain-Jindal versus Obama-Webb but I doubt that's a real possibility.

Version: 10

With Bob Barr in the race, Obama performing relatively well in spite of Clinton's three month assault, and McCain practically invisible I'm feeling more optimistic for an Obama win right now. Assumes:
1 - Obama-Webb or Obama-Nunn
2 - McCain-Pawlenty or McCain-Rice
3 - Bob Barr wins the Libertarian nomination and manages to pull 5% from McCain
4 - Nader is forgotten and pulls less than 1%

Version: 9

Assumes Obama-Webb versus McCain-Pawlenty...although I think there's a growing chance the actual Democratic nominee could end up being Gore or even Edwards in a brokered convention scenario.

Version: 8

After spending some time in PA I don't think that's in play for Obama anymore. Unless there's a revote in Michigan I think the Dems are throwing the state to McCain. Assumes Obama-Webb versus McCain-Pawlenty.

Version: 7

Obama-Webb vs McCain-Pawlenty

Version: 6

Scenario: Dem bloodbath not resolved until the convention. Clinton-Obama vs McCain-Pawlenty

Version: 5

Assumes: Obama-Biden vs McCain-Sanford

Version: 4

Scenario: Obama-Biden vs McCain-Sanford

Version: 3

Scenario: Obama-Biden vs McCain-Sanford

Version History

Member Comments

By: rosin (I-DNK) 2008-11-06 @ 22:05:58
WOW - let's see, what's gonna happen with NE-2, but until now this is the only prediction map I have seen, that has the winner of both MO and IN (most certainly) right.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 01:08:51
Well, I would say you were the winner, as I believe NE2 will in the end go for Obama. However, it appears that you have chosen NE1, Lincoln and rural Eastern NE, and not NE2. Excellent map, but I'm afraid that misstep will cost you the crown.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	21	1	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	13/33	44/66	66.7%	1	152	281	T	407
2004 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	16	4	10	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	138/145	98/145	236/290	81.4%

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