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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:83

Prediction Map
dnul222 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem326
 
Rep212
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem248
 
Rep149
 
Ind0
 
Tos141
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+70+74000202252+74
Rep000-70-74243212-74
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
77492341
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

My final prediction based on Bonn Caruso's polls and stats, pundits and my gut feelings.

Still I picked Ohio for Kerry last time and was wrong...

Senate prediction 58-42
MN stays Rep and gains in Alaska, NM, CO, OR, VA, NC and NH
runoff for Chambliss

House prediction 262-173

Governorships +- = zero= win in Missouri balanced by loss in NC or WA


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-03 @ 09:44:45
Watch the NE 2nd for a stray electoral vote possibility for Obama

Still think Ohio and NC might go for McCain

thanks for all for a nice site!
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-03 @ 16:07:51
Dnul, if you don't want to get trounced on the percentages you should de-pinkify and de-skybluify this map...
Otherwise a very possible scenario. Good job. I think FL is for Obama though.
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 By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-03 @ 18:00:29
If Obama takes NC, then FL won't be too far behind. I give FL to Obama before I would NC - given FL's recent electorla history.

I think you are right on the Senate.

4 Nov 08 will not be a good day for the GOP.
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-04 @ 12:28:48
Early voting in central MN very heavy in my precinct which is 75% Catholic, 95% Male (all male college campus) and 80% under 25...

2004 I was 7th to vote, same time this year 38th...15% had voted in first 1.5 hours.

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 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 14:57:19
de-pinkify and de-skybluify - very nice adjectives.

While you're at it, de-skybluify and pinkify Indiana. :P

Concerned for voting irregularities in VA & PA - on top of predicted rain. Also problems in Florida, Ohio, & Colorado. See DemConvWatch for details.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 14:59:39
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 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-04 @ 15:51:47
there is an all-male college there dnul? whereabouts are you located? =)prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 16:10:21
Interested in young males?

Wing, I think the rain might actually favor Democrats since it might preserve the early voting advantage...
And yes, there will be irregularities. Let's hope the win is big enough for it not to matter.
prediction Map

 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-04 @ 16:55:17
lol...actually no...usually the same age or older...but I know many who would be...lolprediction Map

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-08 @ 15:56:31
St. John's University in a cooperative educational arrangement with the College fo St. benedict's (both Catholic one male one female one educational system two campuses)

The men voted 6 to 4 for Obama and the women more so. And the same two campuses voted for Coleman. Located in Stearns county 75 northwest of Minneapolis on I94. Total students at each school 2000 for total of 4000.

Our county Stearns voted for Tinklenberg over bachmann but to no avail.
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-11 @ 07:32:03
Update on the COleman recount which is scheduled to begin soon...the official tallies are due today which is why the number kept shrinking for Coleman.

There were undercounts for senate race from Presidential totals as is the case in all states...however 2/3 of the undercount is in Democratic counties...we will see when the handcount looks at the ballots if Franken wins...please note that the machines do not catch all the marks people make if they fail to completely fill in the dots. At least we keep a paper trail.

My estimate is Franken wins the recount round and Coleman enters the court phase, with Franken ahead by 500 votes...in the end the senate decides who sits in its own body.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-11 @ 15:20:13
Er... Can the Senate decide who is elected? In that case I should think it will be Franken.
It's a difficult call, even with official results, because the early edge is Coleman's and the trend is Franken's.

I was sad to see Bachmann reelected. That woman is an extreme, bigoted nuthead. She doesn't belong in her office.
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-18 @ 14:49:17
The US Senate is the final arbitor of who sits in its chambers...so in a dispute they pick the senator-put seldom happens that way.

Most commentator in MN expecting a narrow Franken victory from machine errors corrected by paper trail counted by neutral observers with witnesses ALL OPEN TO PUBLIC_ANYONE!

then the court phase...
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-12-18 @ 19:28:38
A Minnesota update for anyone reading or watching...Coleman lead down to 5 and tomorrow Franken will take the lead by the canvassing board counting the ballots. The board is made up of a majority of judges appointed by Republican governors - and that is without counting contested absentee ballots which will tend to favor Franken...there are about 1600 of them...so I give Franken(stein) still do not like him....a 3/4 chance of becoming another senator from MN.

Merry Christmas, Happy Chunakah and an Enjoyable Kwansa to all!
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-22 @ 17:02:01
So we either get two or no points at all for a bleeping 5 votes? Something like 0.0002% of the vote?
Yeah that's the only thing I'm concerned about because no offense dnul but Coleman or Franken the impact on the national scale is at best the hairstyle. I'm more Coleman on that one, btw. Old-fashioned stuff.

Speaking of holidays, what's this war-on-Christmas stuff? In secular agnostic France we have Christmas holidays and we say Merry Christmas even when we're atheists and nobody gives a sh*t in hell about religious controversies.
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-12-24 @ 06:59:29
After the counting of contested ballots Franken +250 and after reenteriing the votes for which challenges were withdrawn it is Franken +48

1600 absentee ballots to be counted or not

Looks like Franken at this point!

And not much impact except to keep 2008 election cycle going into 2009
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 229 1T
P 2012 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 46 2 630T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 7/33 38/66 57.6% pie 8 3 283T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 78 157T
P 2012 Rep Primary 26/52 4/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 154T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 11/37 45/74 60.8% pie 50 7 306T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 18/37 52/74 70.3% pie 26 6 143T
P 2008 President 53/56 24/56 77/112 68.8% pie 83 1 625T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 4 122 281T
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 286 212T
Aggregate Predictions 282/328 120/328 402/656 61.3% pie


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