Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:67

Prediction Map
tmthforu94 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
tmthforu94 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	261
Rep	277
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	224
Rep	160
Ind	0
Tos	154

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+4	0	+30	-1	0	-21	19	2	231	+9
Rep	+1	0	+21	-4	0	-30	27	3	256	-9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
85	45	34	4	2

Analysis

Well, I was wrong.
Sorry for the wrong prediction everyone!!!

My final Prediction. Pennyslvania will go for McCain. Obama hasn't done enough to draw enough Clinton Democrats over to his side. McCain has flooded the news in Pennyslvania, and due to his many stops there, has made it favorable for him.

National Results
McCain/Palin-49.56%
Obama/Biden-49.40%
Other-1.04%

Pennslvania Analysis
McCain has done lots of campaigning there, and has shown that he really cares about the people from the Keystone State. That will be important to many people, and will make them feel important. McCain will win, but it will be very close.

Virginia Analysis
Obama has done enough. He has spent enough money in this state. They say money can't win election. Well, money can certainly win important states. Hillary wouldn't have won Virginia.

Colorado Analysis
This will be a big suprise. McCain had more name recognition going into this, which automatically gave him an advantage. I expcept Republicans to come out in magnitudes in this state, giving McCain the edge.

Ohio Analysis
This has always been a close state, and this election will be no exception. This state will probably even have a recount.

Indiana Analysis
People will expect this state to be really close, but being from Indiana, I don't think it will be quite as close as expected.

State by State Results
Alabama- 61-38%
Alaska- 62-37%
Arizona- 53-46%
Arkansas- 56-44%
California- 59-40%
Colorado-49-49%
Connecticut- 59-40%
Delaware-59-40%
Florida-49-49%
Georgia-51-48%
Hawaii-61-38%
Idaho-69-29%
Illinois-60-39%
Indiana-52-47%
Iowa-53-46%
Kansas-56-43%
Kentucky-56-43&
Louisiana-55-44&
Maine-52-47%
Maryland-56-43%
Massachusetts-61-38%
Michigan-51-48%
Minnesota-50-49%
Mississippi-53-46%
Missouri49-49%
Montana-53-46%
Nebraska-60-39%
Nevada-49-49%
New Hampshire-50-49%
New Jersey-53-46%
New Mexico-51-48%
New York-61-38%
North Carolina-49-49%
North Dakota-51-48%
Ohio-49-49%
Oklahoma-64-35%
Oregon-56-43%
Pennsylvania-49-49%
Rhode Island-61-38%
South Carolina-52-47%
South Dakota-53-46%
Tennessee-55-44%
Texas-56-43%
Utah-69-29%
Vermont-62-37%
Virginia-49-49%
Washington-53-46%
West Virginia-53-46%
Wisconsin-52-47%
Wyoming-69-30%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: tmthforu94 (R-KS) 2008-11-03 @ 21:37:04
It's been fun making predictions with you all. May the best candidate win! (It looks like Obama will end up being picked to win Nevada on here. That state has changed in a hurry!)

By: tmthforu94 (R-KS) 2008-11-06 @ 15:41:07
Well, I was wrong. My final thoughts We were so close to wins in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. Looking at the results, we should have campaigned harder in Minnesota and Iowa. Virginia suprised me. I didn't think it would be that close. The 3 western Obama states disappointed me by margin.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 19:30:52
Don't worry tmthforu, I was wrong too. Sometimes you get 'em right and sometimes you get 'em wrong. Best we can be is good sports. I thought the election would go a different direction, or if Obama won it would be much closer. But I misread the signs, probably influenced by GOP leaning Missouri. At least I got to keep my home state, I was very suprised by yours. Well now we regroup and get ready for a come back. Always look to the future. We have an intact filibuster and did not get hurt nearly as bad as I feared in the congress. But its all on the Democrats now. Let's see them govern for a while. Hell we where gone in four years time they could suffer a similar fate. We'll see. Good to talk with you and stay strong. We'll be back.

By: tmthforu94 (R-KS) 2008-11-07 @ 12:21:25
We can only pray for a Democrat tumble, for the sake of America. lol

By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-07 @ 13:12:53
lol. you guys just don 't get it. YOU WERE WRONG BECAUSE YOU IGNORE REALITY AND FACTS. and you were not CLOSE in Minnesota and you had NO SHOT AT WINNING. And tmth, if you don't like our new president, and America, MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTRY AND MOVE TO CHINA! ;) Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 13:13:18

By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 14:35:25
"Intact fillibuster": On how many issues are all 40 GOP Senators(or 40 of 43, if the GOP is extremely lucky in 'overtime'), including Collins, Snow, and Spector, going to agree to impose a fillibuster? Very few. The 60 votes to achieve a fillibuster proof majority are still achievable. Coleman now leads by around 200 votes. Stevens by 3000, with Tens of Thousands to be counted. And Chambliss needs to survive a runoff, with president-elect Obama stumping for Martin. Chances are good the Dems. end up with 59, IMHO. Tmth - where from? Let me guess: DuBois County?

By: tmthforu94 (R-KS) 2008-11-28 @ 18:59:16
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18661488/vid/24982160

By: tmthforu94 (R-KS) 2009-02-15 @ 19:16:25
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnie_Mouse

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	53/56	39/56	92/112	82.1%	62	1	435	T
2012 Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	26	1	164	T
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	14	1	89	T
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	22/52	65/104	62.5%	43	-	22	T
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	14	1	37	T
2010 Senate	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	128	1	34	T
2010 Governor	33/37	25/37	58/74	78.4%	114	1	74	T
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	18	1	1	T
2008 President	49/56	36/56	85/112	75.9%	67	1	357	T
2008 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	23	1	96	T
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	16	1	86	T
Aggregate Predictions	300/332	201/332	501/664	75.5%