Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:80

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	156
Ind	0
Tos	71

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
99	49	44	4	2

Analysis

Last prediction map:
November 3, 2008

Closest states: MO, NC, IN, ND, FL

House: Dem gain 25-30
Senate: Dem gain 7-8 (Coleman wins over Franken in MN, Georgia goes to a runoff)

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: colin (I-ON) 2008-11-03 @ 18:04:42
Doniki...are you feeling pessimistic today? lol I just don't think Obama is going to do that well...let's hope not anyway. By the way...I am very curious as to what you look like =) You are just sort of around the corner and all =)

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-04 @ 09:39:13
The Day is here. Last Update November 4th: House: Dem Gain 25-30 (maybe more) Likely Dem pickups- AK-AL, AZ-1, CO-4, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, NC-8, NJ-3, NM-1, NY-13, NY-25, OH-15, OH-16, VA-11 Lean Dem pickups- CA-4, CT-4, ID-1, MI-7, MI-9, MN-6, NJ-7 NM-2, NV-3, NY-29, PA-3, Tossups- AL-2, FL-18, FL-21, FL-25, IA-4, IL-10, IN-3, LA-4, MD-1, MN-3, NJ-5, NV-2, NY-26, OH-1, WA-8, TX-10, VA-2, VA-5, WY-AL, Likely GOP pickups- FL-16, TX-22 Lean GOP pickups- PA-11 Tossup- AL-5, PA-12 Senate: Dem Gain of 7-9 Likely GOP pickups- CO, NM, NH, VA Lean GOP pickups- AK, NC, OR Tossups- MN, GA (due to likely runoff) In regards to the House races, there appear to be an increasingly large number of tossups in that once safe GOP districts become more engaged, especially as the DCCC has poured money into races once not thought of as competitive. At the same time the majority of Open GOP seats appear poised for Dem pickups, but as the RCCC has pulled out of some seats they feel are unsalvageable and poured money into other competitive races, they may be saving a few seats from Dem takeover. _______________________ @Colin- Are you flirting with me? :) I've never had a Canadian that wasn't on ice before! ;) I've also never been with a conservative gay before. You don't like Obama, right? What are your feelings about Hillary? We will have to wait and see. I have very high political standards for potential beaus. lol... Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 09:52:34

By: colin (I-ON) 2008-11-04 @ 16:21:06
hmm.....flirting? me? =) lol You know, gay conservatives DO exist...why do people have such a hard time with that? lol As for Obama, I don't know if I have ever felt more strongly about someone not getting elected. As for Hillary...to be completely open and honest with you, I didn't like her at all before the primary season began. Through it all, I grew to have an immense respect for her as a human being and a politician. My impression was that she was just power hungry, but I now believe that my impression was largely influenced by the media. When she really started to open up and show some vulnerability...she proved to me there was a real person in there. So, to make a long story short, I felt for her tremendously at the end of it all (and yes, I believe Obama did everything in his power to destroy her). Between you and me (don't tell my conservative friends...lol) but I would have been okay with her being president if she had won. I know that doesn't sound very emphatic, but that says a lot given how I felt a year ago. As for your political standards for potential beaus...I have them as well...one of mine is someone who stands up for what is right. I think you do that and I respect you greatly for it. =)

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-17 @ 16:30:52
Doniki, thought to stop by and say hello. Check out the newest films and photos of Marlene on my family blog, btw...

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-18 @ 10:57:45
I will do that. I hope all is well with you guys. This is going to be Marlene's second or third Christmas? Is she going to be spoiled with Gifts? She gets the best of both worlds- Christmas and Channukah!

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-18 @ 11:46:45
It will be her 2nd Christmas and Chanukah, respectively. And Nikolaus-Tag is coming up on Dec. 6th. Yes, Papa is spoiling the little princess....

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					245
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	30	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	16	4	66	T	423
2018 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	25	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	21	3	94	T	372
2016 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%	53	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	18/34	50/68	73.5%	33	1	89	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	5/12	15/24	62.5%	5	1	47	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	17/36	51/72	70.8%	56	0	200	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	13/36	43/72	59.7%	40	0	192	T	300
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	96	1	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	26	2	20	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	16/52	6/52	22/104	21.2%	3	-	187	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	20/37	54/74	73.0%	73	1	151	T	456
2010 Governor	36/37	19/37	55/74	74.3%	50	2	118	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	80	1	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	16	4	117	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	46/52	26/52	72/104	69.2%	10	-	7	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	10/49	3/49	13/98	13.3%	1	-	195	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	624/741	404/741	1028/1482	69.4%

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