PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - AHDuke99 (R-SC) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:38

Prediction Map
AHDuke99 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
AHDuke99 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep247
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem286
 
Rep157
 
Ind0
 
Tos95
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+50+39000202252+39
Rep000-50-39263247-39
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
94474043
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 37

This election could go either way. Obama could win in a landslide, or McCain could shock the world. I think the former has the better chance of happening.


Version: 36

I think North Carolina will come home to the GOP in the closing days.


Version: 35

The Obama bump has subsided somewhat, but things are continuing to look bleak for McCain. Florida and Ohio look to be holding steady in his column yet again, but Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia continue to look lost. It's not only yet but it's getting close. I'm surprised NC is so close to flipping.


Version: 34

This race is turning into an absolute blowout. That's really all I can say. North Carolina and Virginia are basically lost right now. New Hampshire, Missouri, and Florida are gone too.


Version: 33

With the failure of Congress to pass the bill emerges President Obama. This is probably the biggest victory he could've received. The blame for this will be put on McCain and the Republicans, despite both sides to be blamed. This is just the beginning. I fear a landslide is on the horizon. The American people are angry, and rightfully so. The Congress can't do jack shit and we're about to give the Democrats even more power than they already have. I don't need to mention all the changes in this map, but a lot of them are turning red.


Version: 32

Wild race and I still don't see where it's going. New Hampshire looks to me like McCain has a real chance there, as well as in Pennsylvania. Colorado looks to have solidified to Obama as of now, and North Carolina is a tossup. If Obama is leading nationally, Virginia might need to be flipped, but I still feel like it will come home to McCain.

Changes in this map:

New Hampshire - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain
California - from lean Obama to strong Obama
Michigan - from tossup McCain to tossup Obama
Colorado - from tossup McCain to lean Obama
Florida - from tossup McCain to lean McCain


Version: 31

McCain's largest lead in this contest to date. Pennsylvania, Colorado, Minnesota, Florida, and Ohio are all trending in his direction.

Changes in this map:

Colorado - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain
Michigan - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain
Minnesota - from lean Obama to tossup Obama
Ohio - from tossup McCain to lean McCain
Pennsylvania - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain


Version: 30

This race is getting stranger and stranger. According to the polls, McCain has surged in the west probably thanks to Palin. He's shown within the MoE in Washington, within 7 in Oregon, leading NM, and tied in CO. On the other hand, a poll out showed Obama closing in in West Virginia. Go figure.

Changes in this map:

California - from strong Obama to lean Obama
Colorado - from tossup McCain to tossup Obama
New Mexico - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain
Montana - from lean McCain to strong McCain
North Carolina - from lean McCain to strong McCain
Washington - from strong Obama to lean Obama


Version: 29

Some states are beginning to come home. North Dakota, Alaska are now solid McCain after flirting a while with Obama earlier in the race. I'll move Michigan back to the Dem column as the race nationally is tightening up again.


Changes in this map:

New Mexico - from lean Obama to tossup Obama
North Dakota - from lean McCain to strong McCain


Version: 28

McCain has received a bounce coming out of the GOP convention and traditional swing states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have tightened. Michigan is a dead heat as well as Pennsylvania, and I'd wager a McCain victory in Michigan as of now, especially if he's leading by 5 points nationally as most polls indicate. This map is indicative of if the election was held today.

Obama has made up ground in Florida after running over 5 million dollars worth of ads.


Changes in this map:

Alaska - from tossup McCain to strong McCain
Florida - from lean McCain to tossup McCain
Indiana - from lean McCain to tossup McCain (polls show it close)
Michigan - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain (polls show a tie, McCain wins currently)
Montana - from tossup McCain to lean McCain
New Mexico - from tossup Obama to lean Obama
Ohio - from tossup McCain to lean McCain (leads by 7 in latest)
Wisconsin - from lean Obama to tossup Obama


Version: 27

The west, which looked strong for Obama in the earlier part of the campaign, is beginning to trend back toward John McCain. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Kansas are beginning to look like 2004 again rather than a lean Obama.


Changes in this map:

Kansas - from McCain > 59% to McCain > 60%
New Mexico - from lean Obama to tossup Obama
Ohio - from lean McCain to tossup McCain


Version: 26

Quick update here. Pennsylvania is beginning to tighten and is no longer considered Lean Obama.

Changes in this map:

Pennsylvania - from lean Obama to tossup Obama.


Version: 25

The election is beginning to flip in the other direction, as Obama's once strong lead nationally and statewide is beginning to fade into the sunset. Recent polls out of some battleground and once strong Obama states have been showing an increasingly tight race.

Changes in this map:

Tennessee - from McCain > 50% to McCain > 60%

Ohio - from tossup McCain to lean McCain (2/3 polls have shown McCain by 5 and 10, one Dem poll showed him behind by just 2)

Colorado - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain (3 polls have shown a tie or McCain lead + historical Republican lean of state)

Louisiana - from McCain > 50% to McCain > 60% (Jindal and lack of blacks will push it over 60% for McCain)

New York - from Obama > 60% to Obama > 50% (doubt Obama breaks 60% in NY at this point, but can if he rebounds)

Michigan - from lean Obama to tossup Obama (still favored in the state, but polls are showing a close race even when Obama lead nationally by 4-5 points)


Version: 24

A quick update here. We are seeing poll tightening in Minnesota and Colorado.

Changes in this map:

Colorado - from lean Obama to tossup Obama
Minnesota - from strong Obama to lean Obama (three polls recently have shown lead less than 4)
New Hampshire - from lean Obama to tossup Obama
North Dakota - from tossup McCain to lean McCain (McCain has lead every poll)


Version: 23

Obama continues to lead by a slight margin nationally, and has led consistently in polls coming out of the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Colorado. All those states have moved to lean Obama for now. As you can see, all of Obama's states he leads are can be considered lean Obama, while McCain leads slightly or seesaws back in forth in many of his.

Changes in this map:

Michigan - from tossup Obama to lean Obama (Obama has lead in 8 straight polls out of MI)
New Mexico - from tossup Obama to lean Obama (Obama has tied or lead in 5 straight polls)
New Hampshire - from tossup Obama to lean Obama (lead in 6 straight)
Pennsylvania - from tossup Obama to lean Obama (lead in 10 straight)
Tennessee - from McCain > 60% to McCain > 50%
Wisonsin - from strong Obama to lean Obama


Version: 22

The race is tightening now, and Obama and McCain are basically even in Gallup and Rasmussen's daily tracking polls. The summer polling is sporatic, but McCain has appeared to move closer in New Hampshire, retaken Ohio, and shored up Georgia and North Carolina, for now.

Changes in this map:

Georgia - From lean McCain to strong McCain
Maine CD2 - from strong Obama to lean Obama
New Hampshire - from lean Obama to tossup Obama
North Carolina - From tossup McCain to lean McCain
Ohio - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain
South Dakota - From strong McCain to lean McCain


Version: 21

Things continue to look rough for McCain right now. Obama has solidified his lead in almost all of the Kerry states with the exception of Pennsylvania and Michigan. McCain continues to underperform Bush in almost all the states except Florida, Arizona, and Louisiana. He outperforms him in New Jersey, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, but none of those are likely to flip. North Dakota and Montana are very strong for Obama, but that may be more summer polling than anything else. Ohio flips on this map because it's not likely it doesnt flip with Obama winning like he is nationally. Wisconsin has shown a double digit Obama lead now in three polls, solidifying it in his column.

Changes in this map:

Georgia: From strong McCain to lean McCain
Mississippi: From strong McCain to lean McCain
Montana: From lean McCain to tossup McCain
North Dakota: From lean McCain to tossup McCain
Ohio: From tossup McCain to tossup Obama
Wisconsin: From lean Obama to strong Obama


Version: 20

A string of polls coming out have shown Massachusetts and Wisconsin are solidifying for Obama, while Florida and Missouri seem to be solidifying in the McCain column. Ohio and Pennsylvania are still tossups.

Changes in this map:

Georgia - From lean McCain to strong McCain
Kentucky - From R>50% to R>60%
Massachusetts - From lean Obama to strong Obama
Missouri - From tossup McCain to lean McCain
Wisconsin - From tossup Obama to lean Obama


Version: 19

I don't know what to make with some of the polling right now. It has been really whacky as of late. We've seen a couple of Uni polls and ARG showing Obama leading in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania by comfortable margins. Rasmussen has shown McCain leading in Ohio and Florida, and we've yet to see a current Pennsylvania poll. I am moving Florida into a lean McCain from strong, but I think it will be a safe GOP state in November. Two polls have shown Obama leading by double digits, which is puzzling, but I will move it to lean Dem. Obama has the upper hand right now, but this race is far from over. Who McCain choses as a running mate will determine his fate.

Changes in this map:

Georgia - From strong McCain to lean McCain
Florida - From strong McCain to lean McCain
Maine CD2 - From lean Obama to strong Obama
Missoui - From lean McCain to tossup McCain
Monana - From strong McCain to lean McCain
New Hampshire - from tossup Obama to lean Obama


Version: 18

This is the first time I have Obama winning the election. Right now, it looks like he is experiencing a nice bump after clinching the nomination. Many states are polling wildly for Obama, and North Carolina, among others, are looking closer than usual. I do expect things to change as the general election gets into full swing. Right now though, Obama is clearly favored to win this election. The VP choice McCain makes is huge, as if the debates and his ability to point out Obama's inexperience and unrealistic goals.

Changes in this map:

Arkansas - From McCain > 60% to McCain > 50%
Iowa - From tossup Obama to lean Obama
Michigan - From tossup McCain to tossup Obama
New Jersey - From tossup Obama to lean Obama
New York - From lean Obama to strong Obama
North Carolina - From lean McCain to tossup McCain
Oklahoma - From McCain > 70% to McCain > 60%
South Carolina - From strong McCain to lean McCain


Version: 17

We are experiencing a mini Obama bump post wrapping up the nomination. He's polling extremely well in Pennsylvania, Virginia, California, and Colorado. Right now he appears to be the favorite, but, in my map, he still loses to McCain. McCain continues to lead in Ohio during this bump, which is good news for him. Michigan is a complete wash as I have no idea which way it will go, but hatred for the Democrat governor and racism could swing it to McCain.

Changes in this map:

California - from lean Obama to strong Obama
Nevada - from tossup Obama to tossup McCain: polls are showing Obama weakness there
Colorado - from tossup Obama to lean Obama: polls continue to show an Obama lead there
Minnesota - from lean Obama to strong Obama
Pennsylvania - from tossup McCain to tossup Obama: a slight trend toward Obama, but I still see McCain as favored come November.
Virginia - from lean McCain to tossup McCain
Florida - from lean McCain to strong McCain


Version: 16

Looks like Obama will be the nominee, but the WV primaries reenforced his problems with the blue collar, working class Americans. McCain's absolute minimum, as of now, is 240 electoral votes of Obama were to carry all the swing states. I moved Iowa back into a swing state as polls have shown it narrowing, and NM I flipped to the Democrats for now. That really could go either way.

Change in this map:

Iowa - from lean Obama to tossup Obama
New Mexico - from tossup McCain to tossup Obama
Washington - from lean Obama to strong Obama
Virginia - from tossup McCain to lean McCain
Florida - from strong McCain to lean McCain (for now, I need to see more polls before I make it solid Republican)
Idaho - from McCain 50% to McCain 60%. I don't think Obama breaks 40% here.
Maine - from lean Obama to strong Obama
Alaska - from strong McCain to lean McCain.


Version: 15

As of now, if Clinton bows out in June, this is what the election will look like. Wisconsin will still be very close, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa will flip to Obama, and New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan will flip. New Mexico could flip easily if Richardson is on the Dem ticket, but I don't anticipate him being on it. New Jersey is a sleeper that could flip to McCain under the right conditions.


Version: 14

The wheels on the Obama bus are falling off. With his gaffes and scandals, he is slowly losing support in areas where he has led solidly previously. In the west, recent polls show him trailing McCain in New Mexico and Nevada. If he loses both of these, Colorado will narrowly go to McCain. We'll wait and see what Wisconsin and New Jersey look like in the following weeks. It's safe to say that Pennsylvania, as it stands, is likely to go to McCain and Michigan has a good chance to as well. Iowa seems like it will remain in the Obama column for now. McCain's lead could grow from what this map shows. The Democrats are in serious trouble right now with Obama. Hillary winning Pennsylvania handily did not help his case.


Version: 13

Updated this week. North Carolina has moved from a strong Republican to a lean GOP for now. Florida is a strong Republican if Obama is the nominee. Minnesota, Massachusetts, Washington, are all moved to lean Democrat as of now. Alaska has gone from >60% to >50%.


Version: 12

McCain v. Obama

No VPs are factored into this race, so things could change in the future.

The floor for Obama is much, much lower than Hillary and many states are up in the air in this race.McCain has about 227 EVs that are guaranteed in his column. He will be strong in the south, especially states with small black populations. Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia and Kentucky will all sniff 60%, Missouri is no longer in play right now, and Florida is lean Republican, rather than a tossup. Virginia will be close, but McCain will carry it at the end of the night. He'll also play well in the industrial states of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Pennsylvania would go to McCain if the election was held today, as well as Ohio and possibly Michigan. New Jersey is very tight, but for now I will give it to Obama. New Hampshire is taylor made for McCain, and I expect him to carry it very narrowly over Obama.

As for Barack, as of now he has about 148 EVs I can call safely for him. He has strength in the upper mid west and west coast. Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada could very well go his way, but things are uncertain. He'll win the Northeast, but not at the margins John Kerry won it four years ago. McCain could break 40% in Massachusetts, challenge him in New Jersey, and win New Hampshire. Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, and Vermont are out of reach for McCain.


Version: 11

The state of the race is still up in the air, but a trend towards McCain is certainly what is forming. He's outpacing Obama by double digits in Missouri, leads Pennsylvania, Ohio, ties him in Democratic states such as New Jersey, Massachusetts, and leads New Hampshire.

I feel a lot of this has to do with the Rev. Wright scandal and of course hurts him trendously in the deep south. Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia all could crack the 60% mark if no significant third party runs. Obama will do alright in the Carolinas and Virginia, but he won't win any of them in the end. His strength in the upper midwest is still in place, for now, and Colorado has been lean Obama, but was tied in the latest Rassmussen poll. Nevada is a state that also could flip, with Obama leading McCain by 1% in a poll taken after the Wright scandal broke.


Version: 10

McCain v. Obama.


This is a map post Rev. Wright for Obama. Missouri moves to lean GOP, Connecticut and New Hampshire both flip to McCain, while Wisconsin goes to Obama with his strength in the upper midwest. The south becomes more solid GOP with any hope of Arkansas flipping is dashed unless Hillary is nominated. McCain will play well in CT, NJ and NH thanks in part of Obama's abysmal performance with white voters.


Version: 9

McCain/Giuliani v. Obama/Biden

Obama is showing weakness in the Northeast for a Democrat, with Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Maine all showing very close poll numbers. The South will go solidly for McCain, but the Carolinas will be close, North Carolina thanks to the academia in the Triangle and South Carolina because of the huge black vote. Florida will not be a battleground this year...it's safe Republican for now. Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky could touch 60% for McCain. Upper midwest will be strong for Obama. Minnesota and Iowa will go for him by big margins, and South Dakota will be closer than usual. Missouri will be close. The west will go for Obama except for Washington. New Mexico will be close again, but McCain will win as Obama is not as popular among the Hispanic population. Colorado looks to be in the Obama camp, for now.



Version: 8

I pray that the Democrats nominate Obama. After watching him last week, he is a lightweight. McCain will have a field day with him. His unfavorables are now up to 48% and rising, while Hillary's are holding steady at 50%. He can't handle the media, he is totally flustered now that he's being questioned, and now his numbers are dropping. He'll keep his core group of blacks and white college kids, but outside of that, any rational voter will vote for McCain. The Democrats, yet again, have fumbled this election that was easily winnable for them.


Version: 7

This is a serious map now.

John McCain/Rudy Giuliani

v.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden

I think today, Michelle Obama's comments may really begin the slow decline of the high-flying Obama campaign.

Her statement of "For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of our country" may be just the battle cry the Republicans need to unite behind McCain and send him to the White House in 2008. Before that comment, I could tolerate Obama. I didn't like his empty promises with nothing to back it up, but a comment like that may really show some insight into how the Obama's really feel about this nation. The arrogance I am sensing from the Obama campaign is beginning to get to me. It seems like only he knows what is right for the nation, and that doesn't sit well with me.

I am sure the Republicans can paint Obama as not up to the job and unpatriotic like his wife showed us today. He doesn't wear a flag pen either, and this is a problem for many people. I am feeling good now about McCain..

Rudy Giuliani will help bring New Jersey to McCain by a small majority.


Go Mac go!


Version: 6

This is a serious map now.

John McCain/Rudy Giuliani

v.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden

I think today, Michelle Obama's comments may really begin the slow decline of the high-flying Obama campaign.

Her statement of "For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of our country" may be just the battle cry the Republicans need to unite behind McCain and send him to the White House in 2008. Before that comment, I could tolerate Obama. I didn't like his empty promises with nothing to back it up, but a comment like that may really show some insight into how the Obama's really feel about this nation. The arrogance I am sensing from the Obama campaign is beginning to get to me. It seems like only he knows what is right for the nation, and that doesn't sit well with me.

I am sure the Republicans can paint Obama as not up to the job and unpatriotic like his wife showed us today. He doesn't wear a flag pen either, and this is a problem for many people. I am feeling good now about McCain..

Rudy Giuliani and Joe Lieberman will bring Connecticut and New Jersey into the McCain column.

Go Mac go!


Version: 5

This election is not going to be as bad as people are talking about.

John McCain (R-AZ)/Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)

v.

Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE)

The Republicans will not all sit out as a whole and watch Barack win in a landslide. This is a guy that has yet to say anything worth noting and has seen a free pass by the media this entire election cycle. The Clinton's can't attack him because it ticks off part of their base, the blacks. The Republicans will have fun with Barack. It's going to be hard for a guy with no experience, no accomplishments, and no record to win the White House, especially in a time of war.

That being said, it will be a close election because Obama has almost a cult-like following among the blacks, college students, and academics.

People showing McCain taking southern states like Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, and South Carolina are hilarious. The closest he'll come is in Virginia, and he won't win there. He polls poorly in Ohio, West Virginia, gets blown out in Kentucky with McCain getting over 60% of the vote, and loses Pennsylvania as well.

McCain will pickup Pennsylvania, as his moderate views play well to the suburbs. The fact that Santorum has come out against him will help in the state. New Hampshire is taylor-made for McCain. His anti-tax, pro-gun stances play right into their hands.

Obama will pickup Colorado and Iowa. Missouri will be very close, but I see McCain pulling it out there. New Mexico may switch, but Obama is very weak with Hispanics and McCain does very well with them. The same problem will hurt Obama in Nevada. He'll do very well in Illinois to offset loses in some southern states. He may do better in Georgia and South Carolina thanks to high black turnout, but it won't be enough to offset the overwhelming white Republican vote.

Had the GOP nominated Romney, we may be talking about a landslide for Obama, but McCain will hold his own. The conservatives will turn out to stop the Democrats. Obama is likable, sure, I like him, but I do not want him to be President. I don't think many conservatives want him to be either. And if he does get in and pull out of Iraq, he'll be elected again no matter what else he goes. Plus, if you disagree with him, you're a racist.


Version: 4

Rudy Giuliani/Mark Sanford
vs.
Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson

I am not really sure if Hillary would pick Bill Richardson, but it is possible. Sanford is a very real possibility for Giuliani from the sources I have talked to within his campaign.

The only changes from this map and my last one is that I am assuming New Mexico will go Democrat in 2008 simply because of the immigration issue. With the GOP calling for a tightened border and advocating a hard line against amnesty for illegals already in the country, the Democrats basically just need to not screw up and they will win the state. West Virginia will go for Hillary as the only reason the West Virginias voted GOP in the past two elections was because they are social conservatives. Being a populist state, if Rudy is the nominee, they will have no reason to support a Republican.

However, he can pick up New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut to offset losing Arkansas and West Virginia. Oregon will be very close, but I expect the Democrats to hold it. Wisconsin will go GOP after being barely Democrat for the last two years. Michigan is a state that has an outside possibility at flipping to the GOP with Rudy on the ticket as well, but the strong union presence may keep it Democratic.


Version: 3

Geez lots of angry people on this site....

sorry .. i didnt realize my analysis from my first map didnt carry over to this update. Anyway, this is what I think will happen for the time being. I am hoping Rudy's drop in the polls will stop soon before Huckabee is nominated. This is a very optimistic map, I admit, and I will update it soon to reflect the current mood of the race, which seems to be back to a state of uncertainty. We've gone from a Rudy nomination to chaos.


IF Giuliani wins the nomination, it isn't out of the question to see the GOP pick up Pennsylvania, Wisconcin, New Jersey (popular there), and Michigan. He can bring in those moderates that may not have voted for Bush. Florida and Ohio may become a bit safer for the GOP, and california and oregon especially could swing GOP as well. This map hinges entirely on a Giuliani v. Clinton matchup.


Version: 2

update2: Missouri moved to tossup as well as Connecticut, but remains lean democrat.


Version: 1

IF Giuliani wins the nomination, it isn't out of the question to see the GOP pick up Pennsylvania, Wisconcin, New Jersey (popular there), and Michigan. He can bring in those moderates that may not have voted for Bush. Florida and Ohio may become a bit safer for the GOP, and california and oregon especially could swing GOP as well. This map hinges entirely on a Giuliani v. Clinton matchup.

EDIT 1--With the current polls in Arkansas, i think its safe to say its very possible Clinton wins the state with Bill campaigning hard.


Version History


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 31/35 23/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 1 205T305
P 2022 Governor 33/36 22/36 55/72 76.4% pie 1 1 173T272
P 2020 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 7 6 359T684
P 2016 President 52/56 40/56 92/112 82.1% pie 1 1 6T678
P 2012 President 55/56 49/56 104/112 92.9% pie 6 6 13T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 19/33 49/66 74.2% pie 1 10 128T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 10 89T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 17/52 9/52 26/104 25.0% pie 6 - 171T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 16 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 10 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 75 41T103
P 2008 President 51/56 43/56 94/112 83.9% pie 38 1 115T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 2 57T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 4 2 50T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 40/52 25/52 65/104 62.5% pie 16 - 28T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 21/49 64/98 65.3% pie 23 - 3T235
P 2004 President 54/56 27/56 81/112 72.3% pie 2 1 1142T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 582/668 399/668 981/1336 73.4% pie


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