Analysis
Republican Ticket: John McCain (AZ)/Sarah Palin (AK)
Democratic Ticket: Barack Obama (IL)/Joe Biden (DE)
Well the big day is almost here. In a matter of hours the American electorate will head for the polls in what has been the most unusual and unique election I have ever seen. So here is my final prediction for the presidential contest of 2008. No doubt many of you disagree with it. That's okay, I sometimes wonder myself. But I just can't shake this gut feeling that we are in for an upset the likes of which have not been seen since 1948 when Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey.
In fact that election holds many similarities to our own. Spirits in the Democratic party where low in 1948. Just two years earlier the Republicans had retaken both Houses of congress and a majority of the nation's govenorships. Truman was terribily unpopular and the world was facing troubled times. Europe was being rebuilt following the devistation of World War II. The Soviet Union was on the rise and along with it the cold war. Many were worried about finances after the passage of the Marshal plan and the cost of occupation of the defeated Axis nations. And the beginings of racial tensions with the first ripples of the civil rights movement was under way.
In the midst of all this all the presidential predictions, both with and without public opinion polls, held that Thomas Dewey would win in a landslide. He was the candidate that represented a new direction, change if you will, and was from the eastern elite establishment. He avoided controvesial issues and spoke in generalities. The polls constantly had Truman behind, sometimes by double digits. The pundits of the day had written Truman off as Dewey's lead was insurmountible. The press by the fall had declared the race over. Many on Truman's staff believed it was over and even the president's own wife had her doubts. The only one that believed in victory was Truman. On election night Truman won by 5 points and over 100 electoral votes. The pundits and the polls where wrong. Dewey did not sell.
I look at today's polls and I am very distrubed by what I see. Not that McCain is losing in them but in how they are conducted. I averaged together many of the national polls over the last few days and took their standard deviation. It was aweful. If I had those results in a lab I'd throw them out and look back to see where I had made an error. And they change too fast. Gallup goes from a 2 point race to a 10 point race in a matter of three days? I don't buy that. There are too many polls (300% more than last year) and they are all way too varied. The range is too great. The internals are also troubling. I believe they have over sampled Democratic support or overestimated Democratic turnout compared to McCain turnout. We have no idea what turnout will be like and I can tell you this, the Republican base is as fired up as I've ever seen it. We also know how bias our media is to Obama, along with most of the beltway. The fact that they conduct all the polling also concerns me. In short I feel the polling data is not worth much. I could be wrong but for now I don't buy it.
And in all this there is still the Bradley effect. How big will it be? I don't know. I've seen the studies that say its not a factor but I don't think its something you can test because even in a study people don't want to be thought of as a racist. Not only that but we've never seen it on national scale before. The presidential race is unique after all. Very liberal candidates tend not to get elected in America to the White House and Obama certainly falls into that catigory. But I don't think people want to be branded as racists for not supporting him.
McCain and Palin have a real chance. The GOP base, Republicans, conservatives, evangelicals, Catholics, larger number of Jewish and hispanic voters, older Americans, some of the youth vote (being a part of it I can tell you McCain has some support here, not as much as Obama but will they turnout in the numbers the media claims they will?), whites, small business owners, blue collared Americans, rural voters, and those from small towns could just help carry him to victory. As I've said this election is wild. There are so many varibles. No incumbent, people angry with government across the board, both tickets very unorthodoxed, two wars, a slowing economy, etc.
In short I don't know who will win. But I believe if we are going to see a suprise, an upset, a McCain win, this is it. A map like this could very well be the case tomorrow night. We could also lose to Obama. I don't think it will be a landslide but it is possible. Obama victories in Ohio, Virginia, Pennslyvania, and Nevada are certainly a very real possibility. But this election is now in the hands of the American people. May God's will be done no matter who wins. Good luck to all.
Rally GOP rally, McCain-Palin 2008!!!
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