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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:56

Prediction Map
PGSable MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
PGSable MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep132
 
Ind0
 
Tos115
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
96494043
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

National popular vote: Obama by 7%
(Obama 52.5%, McCain 45.5%, others 2.0%)

Alabama: McCain by 23%
Alaska: McCain by 11%
Arizona: McCain by 3%
Arkansas: McCain by 9%
California: Obama by 18%
Colorado: Obama by 8%
Connecticut: Obama by 19%
Delaware: Obama by 23%
District of Columbia: Obama by 90%
Florida: Obama by 4%
Georgia: McCain by 3%
Hawaii: Obama by 31%
Idaho: McCain by 28%
Illinois: Obama by 26%
Indiana: McCain by 1%
Iowa: Obama by 15%
Kansas: McCain by 13%
Kentucky: McCain by 13%
Louisiana: McCain by 11%
Maine: Obama by 16%
Maryland: Obama by 21%
Massachusetts: Obama by 22%
Michigan: Obama by 14%
Minnesota: Obama by 12%
Mississippi: McCain by 12%
Missouri: Obama by 2%
Montana: McCain by 1%
Nebraska: McCain by 28%
Nevada: Obama by 6%
New Hampshire: Obama by 11%
New Jersey: Obama by 16%
New Mexico: Obama by 13%
New York: Obama by 30%
North Carolina: Obama by 1%
North Dakota: McCain by 1%
Ohio: Obama by 5%
Oklahoma: McCain by 26%
Oregon: Obama by 17%
Pennsylvania: Obama by 10%
Rhode Island: Obama by 21%
South Carolina: McCain by 9%
South Dakota: McCain by 8%
Tennessee: McCain by 14%
Texas: McCain by 11%
Utah: McCain by 27%
Vermont: Obama by 25%
Virginia: Obama by 7%
Washington: Obama by 16%
West Virginia: McCain by 9%
Wisconsin: Obama by 13%
Wyoming: McCain by 25%


Edit (November 3, 2008):

-10% to Obama in Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

+10% to McCain in Alabama and Nebraska.

-10% to McCain in Montana and North Dakota.

Moved Pennsylvania from strong Obama to lean Obama.

Moved Florida and Ohio from lean Obama to tossup.

Moved South Carolina and South Dakota from strong McCain to lean McCain.

Moved Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota from lean McCain to tossup.

Moved Missouri from tossup McCain (>40%) to tossup Obama (>50%).


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 55

Edit (October 31, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Illinois.

-10% to Obama in Hawaii.

-10% to McCain in Indiana.

Moved Florida, Nevada, and Ohio from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved Arizona from strong McCain to lean McCain.

Moved Indiana from tossup to lean McCain.

Moved Missouri from tossup Obama (>50%) to tossup McCain (>40%).


Version: 54

Edit (October 21, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Delaware.

Moved Florida and Nevada from lean Obama to tossup.

Moved West Virginia from tossup to lean McCain.


Version: 53

Edit (October 18, 2008):

-10% to Obama in Illinois.

Moved Arkansas from strong McCain to lean McCain.

Moved West Virginia from lean McCain to tossup.


Version: 52

Edit (October 14, 2008):

-10% to Obama in Delaware.

-10% to McCain in Alabama.

Moved Florida and Virginia from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved Nebraska-1 and South Dakota from lean McCain to strong McCain.

Moved North Carolina from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Obama (>50%).


Version: 51

Edit (October 13, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Delaware, Hawaii, and Maryland.

Moved Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from lean Obama to strong Obama.

Moved Colorado and Nevada from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved Nebraska-1 from strong McCain to lean McCain.


Version: 50

Edit (October 7, 2008):

-10% to McCain in Alaska and Tennessee.

Moved Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota from strong McCain to lean McCain.

Moved Missouri from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Obama (>50%).


Version: 49

Edit (October 5, 2008):

Moved Indiana from lean McCain to tossup.


Version: 48

Edit (October 3, 2008):

-10% to McCain in Kansas and Nebraska.

Moved Iowa from lean Obama to strong Obama.

Moved New Mexico from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved North Carolina from lean McCain to tossup.

Moved Florida from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Obama (>50%).


Version: 47

Edit (September 29, 2008):

Moved Florida and Missouri from lean McCain to tossup.


Version: 46

Edit (September 28, 2008):

Moved Nevada and Virginia from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Obama (>50%).


Version: 45

Edit (September 27, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Illinois.

Moved Ohio from tossup McCain (>40%) to tossup Obama (>50%).


Version: 44

Edit (September 22, 2008):

Moved North Carolina and West Virginia from strong McCain to lean McCain.


Version: 43

Edit (September 19, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Massachusetts.


Version: 42

Edit (September 16, 2008):

Moved New Mexico from lean Obama to tossup.

Moved Virginia from lean McCain to tossup.


Version: 41

Edit (September 13, 2008):

+10% to McCain in Alabama, Nevada, and Tennessee.

Moved New Mexico from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, and South Dakota from lean McCain to strong McCain.


Version: 40

Edit (September 11, 2008):

+10% to McCain in Alaska.

Moved Nebraska-2 from strong McCain to lean McCain.


Version: 39

Edit (September 10, 2008):

+10% to McCain in Virginia.

Moved New Mexico from lean Obama to tossup.

Moved Virginia from tossup to lean McCain.


Version: 38

Edit (September 9, 2008):

Moved Minnesota from lean Obama to strong Obama.


Version: 37

Edit (September 6, 2008):

+10% to Obama in New York and Rhode Island.

-10% to McCain in Ohio.

Moved Alaska from lean McCain to strong McCain.


Version: 36

Edit (August 19, 2008):

Moved Minnesota from strong Obama to lean Obama.

Moved Missouri from tossup to lean McCain.

Moved Ohio from tossup Obama (>50%) to tossup McCain (>50%).


Version: 35

Edit (August 6, 2008):

-10% to Obama in Illinois.

-10% to McCain in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Nebraska-3, and West Virginia.

Moved Minnesota and Oregon from lean Obama to strong Obama.

Moved Michigan and New Mexico from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved Colorado from lean Obama to tossup.

Moved Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota from strong McCain to lean McCain.

Moved Missouri from tossup Obama (>40%) to tossup McCain (>50%).


Version: 34

Edit (June 24, 2008):

+10% to McCain in West Virginia.

-10% to McCain in Tennessee.

Moved Delaware and Maine-2 from lean Obama to strong Obama.

Moved Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved Alaska, Montana, Nebraska-1, Nebraska-2, North Dakota, and South Dakota from lean McCain to strong McCain.

Moved Florida from tossup to lean McCain.


Version: 33

Edit (June 16, 2008):

-10% to McCain in Virginia.

Moved Minnesota and Oregon from strong Obama to lean Obama.

Moved Iowa and Wisconsin from lean Obama to tossup Obama.

Moved Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota from strong McCain to lean McCain.


Version: 32

Edit (June 12, 2008):

+10% to McCain in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Moved Connecticut, Maine, Maine-1, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington from lean Obama to strong Obama.

Moved Iowa and Wisconsin from tossup to lean Obama.

Moved Arkansas and West Virginia from lean McCain to strong McCain.


Version: 31

Edit (June 10, 2008):

+10% to McCain in Nebraska, Nebraska-3, and Oklahoma.

Moved Delaware from strong Obama to lean Obama.

Moved Florida from lean McCain to tossup.

Moved Missouri from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Obama (>40%).


Version: 30

Edit (June 9, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Michigan and New Hampshire.

+10% to McCain in Missouri and Virginia.

Moved Florida from tossup to lean McCain.


Version: 29

Edit (June 5, 2008):

Moved Connecticut, Maine, Maine-1, New Jersey, and Washington from strong Obama to lean Obama.

Moved Louisiana from lean McCain to strong McCain.

Moved Alaska and Indiana from strong McCain to lean McCain.


Version: 28

Edit (June 4, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Hawaii

-10% to Obama in Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, and Rhode Island.

-10% to McCain in Indiana, Kentucky, Nebraska, Nebraska-1, Nebraska-2, Nebraska-3, North Dakota, and Oklahoma.

Moved Maine and Maine-1 from lean Obama to strong Obama.

Moved Michigan from lean Obama to tossup.

Moved Arizona from lean McCain to strong McCain.

Moved West Virginia from tossup to lean McCain.

Moved Nebraska-1 and Nebraska-2 from strong McCain to lean McCain.

Moved Nevada and Missouri from tossup Obama (>50%) to tossup McCain (>40%).


Version: 27

Based on an Obama-McCain matchup.

Edit (March 1, 2008):

Moved Nevada from tossup McCain (>40%) to tossup Obama (>50%)

Moved Virginia from tossup Obama (>40%) to tossup McCain (>40%)


Version: 26

Based on an Obama-McCain matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (February 18, 2008):

+10% to Obama in New Mexico


Version: 25

Based on an Obama-McCain matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (February 16, 2008):

Moved Iowa from lean Obama to tossup


Version: 24

Based on an Obama-McCain matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (February 14, 2008):

+10% to Obama in Illinois and Missouri

-10% to Obama in New Mexico

+10% to McCain in Indiana and Kentucky

-10% to McCain in Nevada

Moved Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and Washington from lean Clinton to strong Obama

Moved Iowa and Oregon from tossup to lean Obama

Moved Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee from lean McCain to strong McCain

Moved Virginia from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Obama (>40%)

Moved Colorado from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Obama (>50%)

Moved West Virginia from tossup Clinton (>40%) to tossup McCain (>50%)

Moved Arkansas from tossup Clinton (>50%) to lean McCain (>50%)


Version: 23

Based on a Clinton-McCain matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (January 25, 2008):

Moved Missouri from tossup McCain (>40%) to tossup Clinton (>40%)

Moved Ohio from tossup McCain (>50%) to tossup Clinton (>50%)


Version: 22

Based on a Clinton-McCain matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (January 22, 2008):

-10% to McCain in Utah.

Moved Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maine-1, Maine-2, New Jersey, and Washington from strong Clinton to lean Clinton.

Moved Oregon and Pennsylvania from lean Clinton to tossup.

Moved Louisiana from strong Giuliani to lean McCain.

Moved Colorado and Nevada from lean Giuliani to tossup.

Moved Missouri from tossup Clinton (>40%) to tossup McCain (>40%).

Moved Ohio from tossup Clinton (>50%) to tossup McCain (>50%).


Version: 21

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (November 24, 2007):

+10% to Giuliani in Colorado and Nevada.

Moved New Hampshire and Wisconsin from lean Clinton to tossup.

Moved Maine-2 from lean Clinton to strong Clinton.

Moved Virginia from lean Giuliani to tossup.

Moved Colorado and Nevada from tossup to lean Giuliani.


Version: 20

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (November 23, 2007):

-10% to Giuliani in Alabama and Texas.

Moved Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee from strong Giuliani to lean Giuliani.

Moved Florida and Virginia from lean Giuliani to tossup.

Moved Arkansas from tossup Giuliani (>40%) to tossup Clinton (>50%).

Moved West Virginia from lean Giuliani (>50%) to tossup Clinton (>40%)

Moved Missouri from tossup Giuliani (>40%) to tossup Clinton (>40%)

Moved Colorado from tossup Clinton (>40%) to tossup Giuliani (>40%).


Version: 19

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (October 27, 2007):

Moved Maine from lean Clinton to strong Clinton.

Moved Florida and Virginia from tossup to lean Giuliani.


Version: 18

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (October 26, 2007):

+10% to Clinton in Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

Moved Maine from strong Clinton to lean Clinton.

Moved Florida and Virginia from lean Giuliani to tossup.


Version: 17

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (October 25, 2007):

-10% to Clinton in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

-10% to Giuliani in Arkansas, Missouri

Moved Arkansas from lean Giuliani to tossup.

Moved Nevada from tossup Clinton (>50%) to tossup Giuliani (>40%).


Version: 16

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (October 14, 2007):

+10% to Giuliani in Texas.


Version: 15

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (August 25, 2007):

+10% to Clinton in Colorado.

Moved Maine-2 from strong Clinton to lean Clinton.


Version: 14

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (August 22, 2007):

+10% to Clinton in the District of Columbia, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, and Vermont.

-10% to Giuliani in Texas.


Version: 13

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (August 17, 2007):

-10% to Giuliani in Alaska.

Moved Missouri from lean Giuliani to tossup.


Version: 12

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (August 8, 2007)

Moved Wisconsin from tossup to lean Clinton.

Moved Florida and Missouri from tossup to lean Giuliani.


Version: 11

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (August 7, 2007):

Moved Florida from lean Giuliani to tossup.


Version: 10

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (August 2, 2007):

Moved Missouri from lean Giuliani to tossup.


Version: 9

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (June 18, 2007):

Moved Colorado and Nevada from tossup Giuliani (>40%) to tossup Clinton (>40%).


Version: 8

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (June 16, 2007):

Moved Missouri from tossup to lean Giuliani.


Version: 7

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (June 9, 2007):

Moved Washington from lean Clinton to strong Clinton.


Version: 6

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (June 7, 2007):

Moved Washington from strong Clinton to lean Clinton.


Version: 5

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (May 24, 2007):

-10% to Clinton in New Mexico.

+10% to Giuliani in Texas.

Moved Washington from lean Clinton to strong Clinton.

Moved North Carolina from lean Giuliani to strong Giuliani.


Version: 4

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup.

Edit (May 23, 2007):

+10% to Clinton in New Mexico.

Moved Minnesota from tossup to lean Clinton.


Version: 3

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (May 22, 2007):

+10% to Giuliani in Missouri, Nebraska-2, and Nebraska-3.

Moved Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin from lean Clinton to tossup.


Version: 2

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, without any major third party candidate.

Edit (May 20, 2007):

-10% to Clinton in New York.

+10% to Giuliani in Alabama, Alaska, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Utah.

Moved Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington from strong Clinton to lean Clinton.

Moved New Mexico from lean Clinton to tossup.

Moved Arizona and North Carolina from strong Giuliani to lean Giuliani.

Moved Nebraska-2 from lean Giuliani to strong Giuliani.


Version: 1

Based on a Clinton-Giuliani matchup.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 1 2 21T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 28/37 63/74 85.1% pie 1 2 11T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 1 1T103
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 56 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 3 1 9T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 5/11 16/22 72.7% pie 2 0 152T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 24/52 69/104 66.3% pie 28 - 19271
P 2008 Rep Primary 38/49 18/49 56/98 57.1% pie 25 - 21T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 80 1T167
Aggregate Predictions 254/280 175/280 429/560 76.6% pie


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