Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:17

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	353
Rep	185
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	160
Ind	0
Tos	67

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+101	0	0	0	20	2	252	+101
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-101	23	3	185	-101
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
101	50	44	4	3

Analysis

Last update before the election using the same method as before. A bit of a shift towards McCain, but I didn't really expect Obama to get 375.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 16

I decided to change my method again. This time I went through old 2004 predictions made by various sites and compared them to the actual results. I found the average error and then applied that error to the current numbers and got this. Looks the same as my old prediction...

Version: 11

Oct. 9th: I believe we have reached peak Obama.

Version: 9

Changed my method of prediction Oct. 2nd.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	48/56	16/56	64/112	57.1%	1	60	628	T	678
2012 President	56/56	44/56	100/112	89.3%	3	266	115	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	0/52	0/52	0/104	0.0%	1	-	228	T	231
2008 President	54/56	47/56	101/112	90.2%	17	1	6	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	158/220	107/220	265/440	60.2%

Links

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