Comments History
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hideVersion: 52
Obama-Biden 52%
McCain-Palin 46%
Others--- 2%
It will ofcourse be a democratic sweep of both houses of congress. I believe democrats will fall just shy of the 60 seats they so crave in the United states senate.
I see Barack Obama as being the next Jimmy Carter who also came to Washington as an agent of change and an outsider only to become overwhelmed by the demands of the job and pure idealism and naviety. I truly hope that when he is tested in a national security capacity that he passes that test for the sake of us all.
Maine- Solidly Obama despite efforts by the Mc Cain camp for the rural congressional district.
New Hampshire- This is a particuliarly hard and sad call for me to make but it appears to lean Obama. I believe he will take it by 4-6points. I had hoped the Granite State would pick their primary favorite son Mc Cain and keep their tradition of bucking the system and polls.
Vermont- Strong Obama over 60% one of his top 3 state margins.
Massachusetts-Strong Obama
Rhode Island-Strong Obama
Connecticut-Strong Obama and will be over 60%. Obama will be underpolled here.
New York-Strong Obama over 60%
Pennsylvania-Toss Up Mc Cain will close strong but it will not be enough to carry the state. We will also be seeing a Bradley effect as Murtha got in trouble for stating in Western Pennsylvania. Obama will hold onto the state by carrying the Philadelphia suburbs which the Mc Cain camp is not putting enough effort into. Mc Cain is not closing the gap in three counties Bucks Montgomery and Delaware.
New Jersey-Strong Obama
Delaware- Bidens Home State over 60% Obama.
Maryland- High African American turnout in Baltimore and the suburbs will put this democratic stronghold over 60% Obama.
Virginia- Lean Obama he will capture it by at least 3 points.
Mc Cain did not put enough ground game and effort earlier here and assumed it was not in play. Sorry Gceres you lose Virginia
West Virginia-Had looked competitive a few weeks back but now looks again to be strongly Mc Cain. My assumption is racism.
Kentucky and Tennessee- Strong Mc Cain.
Ohio- Tossup I believe a slight Bradley effect will be present in Southern and Eastern Ohio but Obama will take the state by running up margins in Cleveland Columbus and other populated parts of the state.
Indiana- Will not be as close as polls indicate but still considered a tossup. I expect Mc Cain to win by at least 2 points.
Michigan- Strong Obama he will win by similiar margin obtained by Bill Clinton in 1996.
Illinois- Obama's Home State He will get over 60% Mc Cain will be lucky to hit 40%
North Carolina- Obama will narrowly capture this state by a razors edge less then 1 %. He will win primarily because of a superior ground game and outspending Mc Cain. The senate race between Hagan and Dole also benefits Obama. Obama will actually ride Hagans coattails who will win by at least 5 points.
South Carolina- Strong Mc Cain
Georgia- Lean Mc Cain despite a good ground game and strong black turnout the state still at its core is conservative and harbors racism in many suburban parts (Murrieta) Its Mc Cains by at least 3 points.
Florida- Tossup but again superior ground operation and spending will find this bellweather in camp Obama albeit narrowly. 1-3 point win for the messiah. His totals in Miami-Dade and Broward(Fort Lauderdale) will be tough for Mc Cain to overcome. A suprise win in Tampa-St Petersburg for Obama will help him capture the state. The I-4 corridor will split with a slight Obama edge. Pan Handle to Mc Cain.
Alabama- Despite Large African American turnout the white vote will be overwhelmingly Mc Cain giving him a margin of over 60%.
Mississippi- Lean Mc Cain much of the same anaylsis as above but more blacks voting makes Mc Cains margin smaller here.
Louisiana- Strong Mc Cain similiar to Alabama but Mc Cain will not quite hit 60% here.
Arkansas- Despite being Clintons home state their is not much love here for Obama?? As polls indicate and lack of attention here by the Obama campaign and both Clintons campaigning on his behalf. Mc Cain takes it by at least 8 points.
Missouri- Tight as a razors edge but Mc Cain will hold onto it by less then 1% Remember Mc Caskill barely won in 2006 and Obama just recently started giving this battleground attention. Polling is still competitive here for Mc Cain. A democrat cant win the state simply by running up margins in St Louis and Kansas City they must even the playing field in rural counties 50/50.
Iowa- Lean Obama. Despite the Mc Cain camps recent visits which I dont understand this state has never been in play since the media created Obama's Iowa win.
Minnesota and Wisconsin- Strong Obama. Obama's back yard and their liberal past will create big margins for the 1st term senator.
North Dakota- Lean Mc Cain despite polling suggesting otherwise this state will still vote for a Republican and keep to its rural voting pattern. It will be a narrow Mc Cain win he will not get Bush's 60%.
Montana- Same as above
Nebraska- Mc Cain will win yes all 3 congressional districts but the statewide margin will be much lower then Bush's 2004 win.
Kansas- Strong Mc Cain
Oklahoma- Will be Mc Cains 2nd highest win behind Utah.
Texas- Strong Mc Cain he will win by at least 10 points.
New Mexico-Lean Obama by at least 5 points.
Colorado-Lean Obama by at least 4 points.
Wyoming- Strong Mc Cain in his top 5.
Utah- Strong Mc Cain his widest winning margin.
Idaho- Strong Mc Cain his widest margin after Utah and Oklahoma.
Nevada- Tossup could go eithier way depending on how Washoe County (Reno) votes and if Obama can run up margins in Las Vegas. I think Mc Cain will close strong here and squeek out a win of a couple hundred votes out of almost a million cast.
Arizona- Lean Mc Cain despite a last minute effort by Obama to take the state it will still go to the favorite son.
California- My home state will unfortuanately as expected vote overwhelmingly for Obama. Although he will not quite hit 60% due to the inland counties he will be around 57-59%.
The Gay Marriage Ban will fail by at least 2 points due to Obama coattails the only reason I am grateful he is winning my state.
Oregon- Strong Obama over 10 points
Washington- Strong Obama 8-11 points.
Alaska- Palins Home State Strong Mc Cain over 60%.
Hawaii- Obama's strongest state almost 70% for him here.
District of Columbia- With the highest Black population in the country and considering John Kerry received 90% of the vote here I am confident in saying Obama will receive between 91 and 96% in the district. Mc Cain will be lucky to get 5%
Obamas money and ground game will overwhelm Mc Cains on Tuesday in the battlegrounds and that will make him the 44 president.
Version: 51
Well this map is extremely hard for me to make as a Hillary Clinton supporter (PUMA) turned Mc Cain-Palin supporter. I oppose Barack Hussein Obama with every thing in me. I hate the man with a passion. I hate the idolism, I hate the empty talk, the pandering. I hate the lack of accomplishments and the lack of accountability he is held to by the media. I hate his wife. I however am not in a state of denial about where this race sits.
John Mc Cain is not running the campaign I had hoped for even though he has my full support. He has missed several opportunities to hit obama on a variety of issues and associations and has not. He has not offered a comprehensive economic package for recovery although neithier has Obama. Nonetheless Mc Cain is held to a different standard then obama as his party is still the one in power. John has let himself be defined and not put up the fight I had expected he would. He will lose this race because of it.
Obama has FINALLY acheived his double digit lead in a year that has the GOP brand tarnished it did however take him how long??... Race is the reason. I still see the polls tightening up slightly toward the final week of the campaign with Obama pulling off a 4-6 point victory over Mc Cain. I just dont see -any- possible way for Mc Cain to win unless the dialouge of the campaign is altered in a major way. Ie Terrorist Threat, a letter from Osama Bin Laden or some major gaffe and it would have to be major.
I still will proudly stand by Mc Cain and vote for him in November knowing that I voted for the best qualified candidate and a person who knows something of sacrifice. I will not throw my vote away on a write in vote.
Obama-Biden 51%
McCain-Palin 47%
Other's 2%
Sorry ConservRep, Gceres, Chica and all my other Mc Cain friends I just dont see how Mc Cain can pull it off. I desperately hope that I am wrong and am open to hearing from anyone on the reasons why I am.
If your an Obama fanatic(Wing, Five, Bonn, BushCountry, FrenchEd, Satyrday.Jlorenzen,sbane Pace and others..) and your posting something to gloat brag and rub my face in it please ignore my map. I dont need to hear it, I already know what the situation is I have to hear the media sing Obama praises on a daily basis so please move on.
I had hoped you people would feel the loss as I had to of supporting a candidate who came so close but didnt make it. I had wanted you to feel the pain and emptyness of a loss. I had wanted your hopes and work to be thrown out the window as mine had when Hillary lost. (MC CAIN-PALIN 2008)
YOU WIN.
Obama Biden- 51%
McCain Palin-47%
Other's 2%
I still believe a Bradley effect will materialize on election day. If obama goes into election day leading by 7-10points I think the above scenario will be the final result. Obama's race handicapped is still being underestimated even though he will pull off a win.
I believe due to the current economic situation Hillary Clinton would have beat Mc Cain in a larger landslide and larger % of the national popular vote because race would not have been an issue.
Version: 50
John Mc Cain-Sarah Palin: Republican Ticket
Vs.
Barack Obama-Joseph Biden: Democratic Ticket
I am thrilled with the news of John Mc Cains choice of Sarah Palin to be our next vice president of the United States. Sarah Palin is change. Barack Obama does not own that title any more. Sarah Palin is a maverick in her own right but yet has the proven ability to reach across party lines and work with democrats for compromise. Sarah has a wonderful story and strong values she will bring to the office. Her youth energy and female perspective will be a breath of fresh air. Let the Democrats challenge her experience they nominated Obama as the top of THEIR ticket. As a former Hillary Clinton supporter (male) I believe Palin will have appeal to Clinton democrats not just because she is a fellow woman but because of the type of maverick republican she is and although a conservative has been known to take moderate positions on social issues abortion excluding. Sarah is dynamic and I have been following her for some time now and as a former democrat I am impressed she is strong intelligent and exciting! For me she is no Hillary Clinton but yet posseses that same drive and is quite unique in her own right. I honestly do hope the democrats underestimate her this year at their own harm. I had wanted John Mc Cain to pick her but always thought she was a dark horse candidate and that he would go with someone dull like Pawlenty or even worse Mitt Romney.
Clinton voters will go to Palin they would have had reservations about Romney.
Mc Cain/Palin (R) 50%
Obama/ Biden (D) 47%
Mc Kinney/Clemente (G) 1%
Barr/Root (L) 1%
Nader and others 1%
While Mc Cain ofcourse will not carry a majority of women voters he will make inroads sufficient enough to carry the day. He will carry male voters by double digits. Obama will carry over 90% of the African American vote and carry the youth vote by double digits. Palin will help Mc Cains image as a maverick especially with females but even with independent male voters and the male voters who voted for Hillary Clinton such as myself.
Version: 49
John Mc Cain-Sarah Palin: Republican Ticket
Vs.
Barack Obama-Joseph Biden: Democratic Ticket
I am thrilled with the news of John Mc Cains choice of Sarah Palin to be our next vice president of the United States. Sarah Palin is change. Barack Obama does not own that title any more. Sarah Palin is a maverick in her own right but yet has the proven ability to reach across party lines and work with democrats for compromise. Sarah has a wonderful story and strong values she will bring to the office. Her youth energy and female perspective will be a breath of fresh air. Let the Democrats challenge her experience they nominated Obama as the top of THEIR ticket. As a former Hillary Clinton supporter (male) I believe Palin will have appeal to Clinton democrats not just because she is a fellow woman but because of the type of maverick republican she is and although a conservative has been known to take moderate positions on social issues abortion excluding. Sarah is dynamic and I have been following her for some time now and as a former democrat I am impressed she is strong intelligent and exciting! For me she is no Hillary Clinton but yet posseses that same drive and is quite unique in her own right. I honestly do hope the democrats underestimate her this year at their own harm. I had wanted John Mc Cain to pick her but always thought she was a dark horse candidate and that he would go with someone dull like Pawlenty or even worse Mitt Romney.
Clinton voters will go to Palin they would have had reservations about Romney.
Mc Cain/Palin (R) 50%
Obama/ Biden (D) 47%
Mc Kinney/Clemente (G) 1%
Barr/Root (L) 1%
Nader and others 1%
While Mc Cain ofcourse will not carry a majority of women voters he will make inroads sufficient enough to carry the day. He will carry male voters by double digits. Obama will carry over 90% of the African American vote and carry the youth vote by double digits. Palin will help Mc Cains image as a maverick especially with females but even with independent male voters and the male voters who voted for Hillary Clinton such as myself.
Version: 48
The idolism displayed tonight and the empty promises are some of the many reasons I oppose Barack Obama.
I donated a large sum of money tonight to the Mc Cain campaign and will work my heart out for him this fall.
Version: 47
Obama is still going to get his ass kicked!!
Miss Hillary Clinton!!!!!!!!!!!
Hillary 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Version: 46
How embarrasing for the rock star messiah to be slipping in the polls right before his lovefest in Denver. Shouldnt he be ahead going into the convention and then be able to build upon his numbers build it into a bounce? LOL Well if anything hes crashing leading up to the sham of an event. Reuters/Zogby has Mc Cain up by 5 nationally and in all recent polls in the major Battlegrounds of Florida Missouri Ohio Virginia Colorado Mc Cain is ahead and Obama is holding onto a mere 1 point lead in New Hampshire. With a possible Bradley effect even thats questionable! as these polls may understate Mc Cain he could be up by an extra point or two if one factors in a possible Bradley effect.
PUMA- Go Mc keep hitting him hard- Hit him where Hillary couldnt! As another poster put it- Obama is a weak ass candidate. Mc Cains ads will continue to reveal the real obama! Also hidden in these numbers are over 20% of the 18 million Hillary Clintons voters (in every recent poll) such as myself. We will not support the unqualified cheap smooth talker for the highest office in the land. We will not support his past connections and affiliations or his arrogance.
If I had to guess who the vps are going to be-
John Sydney Mc Cain- 1.Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, 2. Tim Pawlenty, 3.Eric Cantor 4. Rob Portman. Long shots are Joe Lieberman or Sarah Palin
Barack Hussein Obama- 1. Joe Biden 2. Bill Richardson 3. Chet Edwards of Texas (Pelosi wants him for some reason)
Every Puma knows that Hillary Clinton was never being fully vetted as he hates her and we hate him!
Version: 45
How embarrasing for the rock star messiah to be slipping in the polls right before his lovefest in Denver. Shouldnt he be ahead going into the convention and then be able to build upon his numbers build it into a bounce? LOL Well if anything hes crashing leading up to the sham of an event. Reuters/Zogby has Mc Cain up by 5 nationally and in all recent polls in the major Battlegrounds of Florida Missouri Ohio Virginia Colorado Mc Cain is ahead and Obama is holding onto a mere 1 point lead in New Hampshire. With a possible Bradley effect even thats questionable! as these polls may understate Mc Cain he could be up by an extra point or two if one factors in a possible Bradley effect.
PUMA- Go Mc keep hitting him hard- Hit him where Hillary couldnt! As another poster put it- Obama is a weak ass candidate. Mc Cains ads will continue to reveal the real obama! Also hidden in these numbers are over 20% of the 18 million Hillary Clintons voters (in every recent poll) such as myself. We will not support the unqualified cheap smooth talker for the highest office in the land. We will not support his past connections and affiliations or his arrogance.
If I had to guess who the vps are going to be-
John Sydney Mc Cain- 1.Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, 2. Tim Pawlenty, 3.Eric Cantor 4. Rob Portman. Long shots are Joe Lieberman or Sarah Palin
Barack Hussein Obama- 1. Tim Kaine 2. Evan Bayh 3. Joe Biden
Every Puma knows that Hillary Clinton was never being fully vetted as he hates her and we hate him! Long Shots are he wont have the guts to offer up Kathleen Sebelius or Claire Mc Caskill.
Version: 44
www.politico.com
"7 worrisome signs for obama"
Version: 42
The question now is are the Mc Cain "celebrity" ads having an effect on defining Obama to the electorate? Democrats in his own party are quietly grumbling that he isnt hitting back at Mc Cain strong enough. Sound Familiar?...
This should not be a close race. This is definetly obamas race to lose. He should be up by double digits considering the fact that most of the media is in the bag for him.
Version: 41
Mc Cain vs Obama.
Mc Cain 50%
Obama 48%
Others 2%
By the time november rolls around obama will be wearing the elite title of inexperienced. A summer of attacks on Michelle Obama's racial views and college thesis will certaintly not help in middle america and the south. Mc Cain will have an opportunity to shine and contrast his experience to that of the first term Illinois senator. Mc Cain will put together a unique coalition of voters not seen since the so called reagan democrat. Independents will split between the two almost evenly with a slight Mc Cain edge and Mc Cain will pick up over 10% of registered democrats.
Michigan will be the new Florida and Ohio for 2008. As Mc Cain will win those states comfortably as Obama has confirmed a strategy that will not center around them. Virginia will prove to be closer then 2004 but still slightly out of Obama's grasp due to its southern element and western rural virginia. He will make large gains in Northern Virginia and some suburban areas but again not enough to offset the above stated areas.
Mc Cains campaign plans to target the counties and states that Hillary Clinton did well in. They plan to "win where hillary won"
Version: 40
Mc Cain Vs. Obama.
Mc Cain 50%
Obama 47%
Barr 1%
Nader 1%
Others 1%
Closer popular vote scenario and slight pickup for Obama--although in the end I feel Colorado will go to Mc Cain by a couple of points and New Mexico will be Obama's narrowly perhaps. The battlegrounds will be the southwest and industrial mid-western states. Mc Cain is polling better then expected in both Ohio and Michigan and even making Pennsylvania competitive! This should not be the case as 2 of the 3 states voted for Kerry Gore and Bill Clinton. Ohio was narrow in 2004 one would think it should be leaning democratic at this point. Obama's numbers have been strong in the southwest but now have deteriorated. He had been leading in New Mexico and Nevada until recently---proves that these states will be more difficult for him to win then his camp would like to admit. They claim to be opening up new battlegrounds I see old battlegrounds that should be leaning in the democratic column now tilting republican.
Version: 39
Mc Cain vs Obama.
Mc Cain 50%
Obama 46%
Nader 2%
Barr 1%
Mc Cain runs a strong national security campaign emphasis on experience and his service to the country. Obama runs on the war in iraq.He also emphasises his commitment to the economy but his experience is questioned by Mc Cain and many in the Washington establishment. People feel safer at the end of the day with a Mc Cain presidency despite opposition to the war. The ever talked about Bradley effect will be present in many states leading up to the november vote, particularily Pennsylvania which Mc Cain wins under 1% or 50,0000 votes. Same holds true of Michigan which will before the vote will be expected to go to obama. Cross over voting is also a factor but will not be covered by the media due to other campaign issues.
Version: 38
Mc Cain/ Maine Senator Olympia Snowe
Vs.
Obama/Reverend Jeremiah Wright-
Obama's Reverend will not shut up. He joked about Obama picking him for the vice presidential spot in a defiant press conference today. This is what one such scenario might look like, perhaps Im being far too kind huh?? I was in the mood for a nutty scenario just one of those days.
Keep Talking Reverend, Keep Talking....
Mc Cain 54%
Obama 41%
Nader 4%
Others 1%
Version: 37
Hillary Clinton/ Indiana Senator Evan Bayh
vs.
John Mc Cain/ Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour
Clinton 51%
Mc Cain 47%
Others 2%
Hillary runs with a strong superior economic platform reaching out to blue collar reagan democrats in the upper mid west swing states. Hillary attacks Mc Cain unrelentlessly and makes his temper and past emotional outbursts an issue in the campaign. She effectively raises doubts about his age and emotional preparedness. Mc Cain paints her as polarizing and out of touch. Hillary speaks to the issues better and more throughly. She is also successfully able to compare and link Mc Cain to Bush and his failed policies threw an aggressive campaign.
Version: 36
Clinton / Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski
Vs.
Mc Cain / Florida Governor Charlie Crist
Clinton 49%
Mc Cain 48%
Others 3%
Clinton runs an economic themed campaign highlighting the failed Bush economy and hits hard in the upper midwest. She paints Mc Cain as out of touch with with the recession and his temper comes to boil during the campaign and is used against him affectively and negatively by the Clinton campaign they question his ability to handle dangerous situations that may require a cool calm head. Mc Cain runs on experience but doesnt get past the central issue the economy. Mc Cain hits Clinton on her many negatives and past untruthful statements. Clinton continues to tie Mc Cain to Bush and his negatives.
This scenario shows a very tight race with Clinton vs Mc Cain With Crist on the ticket he secures the battleground of Florida for Mc Cain and makes the contest very tight. Recent polling in Florida has showed it to be competitive, in a Clinton/Mc Cain race. Ted Kulongoski on Clintons ticket helps secure the Pacific Northwest for Clinton. He is not the best choice for a running mate which this scenario shows as Ive have heard his name further down on the list. My number 1 choice for a Clinton running mate would be Retired General Wesley Clark I think he would help Clinton more with independents and without Crist on the Republican ticket would put Florida back into play. All toss ups in this scenario are won by less then one point. The closest states being Wisconsin Iowa and New Mexico. Despite current polling I think Wisconsin will remain narrowly democratic as it has since 1988. Many recent democrats to run for president were behind in Wisconsin at some point but narrowly won it in the end. It could go eithier way as always. New Mexico could go to Clinton as well but in this scenario I have chosen to give it to Mc Cain by a razors edge. Iowa as well although at this point I think Mc Cain has the edge there.
Version: 35
Hillary Clinton/ Ret General Wesley Clark
Vs.
John Mc Cain/ Tim Pawlenty Gov Minnesota.
Clinton 50%
Mc Cain 48%
Other 2%
Clinton runs on a strong economic message and a plan for many of the rust belt states that have lost jobs. Mc Cain is seen as a hero but lacking in a plan to tackle the troubled economy. General Clark is a great addition to her ticket with his decorated service to the country and in foreign policy would make an excellent vice president. Tim Pawlenty provides Mc Cain some much needed youth but comes from a state that is likely to go to eithier democrat in the fall. He could help make Wisconsin competitive for Mc Cain which I show in this version.
If Hillary were to lose Florida she would need to carry eithier Oregon or Iowa to win the electoral vote. Despite what the polls show she may win all three they all have voted democrat in the last few cycles. Florida in 1996 and (2000 lol) Iowa 1996/ 2000 and Oregon 1996/ 2000 and 2004 I do see a flip as very possible at the present time.
Version: 34
Clinton/ Bayh
Vs.
Mc Cain/Sanford
Hillary Clinton runs on a strong economic message that resonates in the mid-western battleground states with the active support of her running mate Evan Bayh she narrowly carries Indiana. Mc Cain refuses to confront economic issues head on which is Hillary Clintons strongest issue. The economy continues to worsen as the election draws near.
Clinton 50%
Mc Cain 48%
Nader 1%
others 1%
Version: 33
Mc Cain vs Obama.
Mc Cain 53%
Obama 45%
Others 2%
A Map and win for Mc Cain which may be similiar to George Bush Sr's win in 1988 against Dukakis whom they used the infamous Willie Horton ad on. Which with the recent Rev Wright controversy it will be interesting seeing what the republicans will pull out of their hats to run against obama. They will not have to censor there attacks like the Clinton campaign running against obama in the same party. I dont see middle america voting for obama after such controversy and yet we have only begun to see what Barack Obama is all about, Im sure the republicans will make sure America is well "informed" in the fall if given the chance to run against him. I see a campaign similiar to 1988 with Obama taking a few more large states then Micheal Dukakis did but the popular vote being closer to the 1988 totals. Mc Cain will win big with independents and a signifigant percentage of Hillary Clinton supporters who cant stand the thought of Barack Obama in the white house over the other two better experienced candidates.
Version: 32
Obama vs. Mc Cain.
John Mc Cain has said he will go after democratic states and try to turn them republican after the polarizing Bush and his limited electoral strategy. This map is possibly a best case scenario for him .
If Mc Cain can hit Obama on lack of experience, national security prepardness, and paint him as a movement that doesnt represent mainstream middle america he will be successful. He must paint him as an out of touch liberal with too many unknowns...
To this electoral extent proably not. I just thought I would throw a map together to reflect my thought. I do think contrary to some opinions that Hillary Clinton would fight back and run on the economic issues more so then iraq war issues and in this economic year I think that is the better of the two issues to run on Bread and Butter baby! Many are against the war but they are also against not having enough money in there bank accounts and that issue hits home harder! Before I get hit with this or that state is too strong on my map understand, at this point early on anyway I dont think he would win with such a spread. This is just a what if,
Anything is possibly though as this race has shown.
Mc Cain 52%
Obama 46%
others 2%
I decided not to factor in the vice presidential influence on this map.
Version: 31
Ok My turn the states in Red are the states Im seen in my 26 years of awesome living.
Oregon and Washington: I have driven from my home in los angeles all the way up the coast. for any of you west coasters I highly recommend it as the coast is beautiful Im a beach guy all the way California's coast is where its at baby!
Portland and Seattle are great party cities and very liberal!
Hawaii: 2 Trips with family so I couldnt get too crazy.
Nevada: Ive been to Las Vegas I drive from los angeles at least twice a year.
Arizona: Lake Havasu, Phoenix and Tucson -more socially liberal then I expected.
Idaho/Utah I have driven threw Utah and I have an aunt and uncle who live in Idaho. The only liberals there proably?
Colorado: Denver Aspen Vale
New Mexico: Albequerque and Santa Fe
Texas: Dallas I have a Republican uncle who lives there, Its an awful place lol. Would like to see Austin though,
Louisiana: New Orleans pre-Katrina partied in the French Quarter baby!! woo hoo
Florida: Fort Lauderdale Orlando Miami Key West cool state but too humid for me.
Missouri: St Louis/St Louis County Not a trip I want to remember lol
Illinois: Chicago twice cool city great scene.
Washington DC / Arlington Virginia: I had a cousin I stayed with there so I could see the capital she lives in Florida now and makes me look like a conservative she is sooo liberal.
New York City/ New Jersey LOVE IT Cant get enough of that city and the tri-state area, I have not been into New England that is where I would like to venture next Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Maine... Would also Like to see Philadelphia.
Version: 30
This scenario demostrates how a democrat needs to likely carry eithier Michigan or Florida in the general election in order to win. They can win without them ofcourse but it is highly unlikely as these are large important states and a democrat needs to carry at least one in order to win.
The above map represents both democrats although Im inclined to think Obama would not pull off Arkansas and Ohio is even a stretch but in this scenario lets say that he somehow did.Im confident that Michigan will vote democratic in the fall this is just a what if scenario demostrating how important the two states are.
Whatever compromise must be made on the part of the Clinton and Obama campaigns is necessary as we can not refuse to recognize both these states. Both campaigns should agree upon some course of action to recognize these states whatever is considered fair for both campaigns you can not ignore these battleground states.
Version: 29
Revised Edition
John Mc Cain (AZ)and Olympia Snowe(ME) --- Republican Ticket
Barack Obama(IL/HI) and Tim Kaine (Va) --- Democratic Ticket
In this scenario Mc Cain beats Obama in the electoral college. Obama wins the popular vote by a substantial margin A small amount of conservatives shift back to Mc Cain giving him razor thin wins in the critical toss ups states.
Mc Cain beats Obama with voters who feel Obama is weak on foreign policy. The republicans run a smear campaign via independent groups claiming Obama will be weak on terrorism and openly accuse his wife of being anti american and out of the main stream. Republicans proceed to attack the image and past political activities of Michelle Obama threw independent swift boat type groups. This keeps Barack on defense As he continues to keep to his pledge of running a Clean Honest and non-negative campaign. Mc Cain had pledged the same, the attacking groups are not affiliated with his campaign but help elect him none the less
Barack H. runs up large totals in Democratic states and makes some of the tossup democratic states from 2004 lean democratic with a strong popular vote. John Mc Cain holds republican by smaller margins then 2000 and 2004 and narrowly carries toss ups as a direct result of the negative campaign advertising and continued gaffes and defense of Michelle Obama and scrutiny from conservatives.
Olympia Snowe helps Mc Cain compete with Obama with independents and women. This solidify's Mc Cains older married woman vote and he picks up a very small, but critical percentage of former Hillary Clinton democrats.
Mc Cain does well in upper New England with Olympia Snowe's help and his popularity from the primaries although Maine is tight he narrowly wins one congressional district. and New Hampshire by a couple of points. The critical close states are Colorado and New Mexico and they become the Florida of 2008 Mc Cain keeps them, narrowly winning independents and has home region appeal as a maverick westerner.
Polls leading up to the election show obama ahead by 2-3points and exit polls are wrong in just a few critical states.
John Mc Cain (R) 47% ---President Elected
Barack Obama (D) 49%
Ralph Nader (I) 3%
Other parties 1%
Version: 28
MC Cain vs Obama Landslide Scenario
John Mc Cain/ Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)54%
Barack Obama/ Tim Kaine (Va)44%
Other minor candidates 2%
After the republican attack machine, fueled by Karl Rove has dug into Obama's past and scared many independents and moderate portions of the electorate, when much becomes known of obama's past this will also rally on the fence conservatives building a broad majority voteing for Mc Cain.
Proably WONT be a landslide but there are many months to go until the general election? Hillary is not out of this race yet ! ??
Im not sure what to do with my vote in November if Barack H. Obama is the democratic nominee I will not be voteing for him Im not sure if Ill do a write in or vote for Mc Cain?
I dont vote for American Idol, I vote for president!
Barack may win a nomination but his ideas are not superior to the better qualified candidates running Clinton and Mc Cain! He is not prepared to lead, protect and defend this great nation.
Version: 27
Obama Vs Mc Cain
In this scenario Mc Cain beats Obama in the electoral college. Obama wins the popular vote by a substantial margin! Mc Cain may have won the popular vote narrowly had conservatives not formed a third party run. The conservative party runs stronger until the closing days of the campaign when its clear Obama is ahead in the swing states by razor thin margins. A small amount of conservatives shift back to Mc Cain giving him razor thin wins in the critical toss ups states.
Mc Cain beats Obama with voters who feel Obama is weak on foreign policy. The republicans run a smear campaign via independent groups claiming Obama will be weak on terrorism and openly accuse his wife of being anti american and out of the main stream. Republicans proceed to attack the image and past political activities of Michelle Obama threw independent swift boat type groups. This keeps Barack on defense As he continues to keep to his pledge of running a Clean Honest and non-negative campaign. Mc Cain had pledged the same, the attacking groups are not affiliated with his campaign but help elect him none the less
Barack runs up large totals in Democratic states and makes some of the tossup democratic states from 2004 lean democratic with a strong popular vote. The republican states are less strong due the running of a conservative third party.
So much for Obama mania in the electoral college.
John Mc Cain (R) 45% ---President Elected
Barack Obama (D) 49%
Conservative Party 4%
Other votes 2%
4 republican electors defect from Mc Cain and cast ballots for the conservative party out of protest of Mc Cain!! Mike Huckabee receives one elector from Arkansas.
Version: 26
Analysis Below
Version: 25
Mc Cain vs Obama
Mc Cain 50%
Obama 48%
Others 2%
This scenario assumes no credible third party threats conservative or liberal
Version: 24
Clinton/Obama
vs.
Mc Cain/Huckabee
Clinton 49%
Mc Cain 47%
Paul 3%
others 1%
Both parties united with major nominee runner ups. The democrats seem to have the upper hand there. Mc Cain has problems with his base as he appears to flip flop from moderate to conservative masks and appears to pander to both. Huckabee is a loose cannon running mate hurting Mc Cain with women which flock to Clinton with excitement that Obama helps ignite.The anti-Clinton vote is present, just as the anti-Bush vote was in 2004 which keeps the republican base states strong for Mc Cain. Mc Cains age while not brought up by Clinton is an issue raised by the media.....
States won under one point
Nevada
Ohio
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Colorado
All other toss ups won by 1-3pts
Lean States 4-6
Strong 8 and up
Version: 23
Hillary Clinton/ Retired General Wesley Clark
Vs
John Mc Cain/ Haley Barbour
Hillary may be forced into selecting Obama to unite the party if however she does not I think the above selection could be very wise. Other wise choices would be Strickland Ohio or Bayh of Indiana. Wes Clark would offer valued foreign policy experience and a military presence to the ticket and is moderate and somewhat likeable? I could see a conservative third party movement possibly but it would not get more than about 5 percent as conservatives would see it helping Hillary
Hillary 48%
Mc Cain 47%
Conservative Third Party 4%
Other Parties 1%
To my more idealistic democratic friends sorry this one is gonna be another razor ends election similiar to 2000/2004
But We can do it We must properly define grandpa Mc Cain and fight on! Several states are going to be extremely close such as New Mexico Ohio Iowa Nevada which will be won with under 1 percentage point We can do this it is going to take a fight
Version: 22
Obama vs Romney
Im aware im being kind to Mr Romney in this scenario.
Obama 50%
Romney 45%
Paul 4%
others 1%
Not much of analysis is needed here as most democrats and independents agree Romney is the weakest candidate running but he can still buy some states to carry. flip flop around the country campaigning, hey he can move faster than Bob Dole
Version: 21
MC Cain vs Obama
At present time both Clinton and Obama are having difficulties in the polls against John Mc Cain partly because Mc Cain is still viewed as a maverick and has little negatives he has not been called out on his votes or to address issues relevant to the general election thus is riding high. I think he would trounce Obama even more so than Clinton on experience and national security readiness. He would also run on the ready to lead platform and his years of service to his country which would be tough for Obama to counter. Obama also does not have the ability to go negative and lacks big time in the strategy department he is new to politics and will have a lot to learn unfortunately on the campaign trail is not the time.
Mc Cain 50%
Obama 46%
Paul 3%
others 1%
Version: 20
Clinton Vs Mc Cain
Mc Cain carries the popular vote in this scenario?
MC Cain 47%
Clinton 47%
Paul 4%
Other 2%
Version: 19
Hillary Vs Romney
Hillary decides in order to unite her party she MUST go with Barack Obama as her running mate despite the risk of two minorities on a ticket. She must solidify the African American and youth vote she was weaker with in the primaries. She polls very strong with women and moderates. She goes on to carry independents in the general election with a strong economic message in a turbulent economic year.
Romney decides to go with Huckabee his chief opponent in the primaries once Mc Cain looses momentum and Giulani fails to perform well on super tuesday. Romney choice Huckabee to counter act his negative in regards to mormonism and keep the evangelical base. The general election as many expect is a complete disaster for him. He is seen as a plastic politician and Clinton successfully challenges his positions at every opportunity keeping him on defense. Huckabee is also a loose canon attempting to push the ticket to the far right socially
The vice presidential debate is a slam dunk for Obama
Romney is seen as unreliable and flip flop con artist. His record in Massachusetts is told as are his favorables in his so called second home state. Romney fails by double digits to carry his so called two home states Michigan and Massachusetts
He does well in base states with Huckabee's help but fails to carry any large tossups.
America goes on to elect the first Woman and African american ticket and the primaries are a distant memory
Paul running as an independent takes votes from Romney but Clinton still would win without his run.
Clinton/Obama 50%
Romney/Huckabee 42%
Paul/ 7%
greens and other 1%
Version: 17
Huckabee's Massive Mistake !!
Version: 16
Clinton/Obama
vs
Mc Cain/Romney
Vs
Bloomberg/Hagel
This race is very tight The closes states are of course Ohio which is razor thin Virginia and New Hampshire are suprises as there are expected to go to the loosing parties do to conventional thought. The spoiler is Bloomberg even though he does less than expected. Obama on the ticket helps unify the party and Clintons base among the younger generation and helps her compete with Mc Cain and the independents. Bloomberg brings in the anti establishment vote
Clinton 44%
Mc Cain 43%
Bloomberg 11%
others 2%
I think any third party run by a moderate or conservative leaning candidate helps Clinton. If she is the nominee I believe there will be an anti establishment Candidate that will run that will appeal to independents and thus give her a victory
Version: 15
Obama vs Mc Cain updated from my previous map I have given Mc Cain Maine as there are many independent voters up there
John Mc Cain (rep) 51%
Barack Obama (dem) 47%
Others 2%
For my scenario commentary please see my previous map
Version: 14
" 2004 is not a blueprint for all elections in the future"
John Mc Cain
Vs.
Barack Obama (aka the rockstar)
Mc Cain puts together a winning coalition of republicans and split democrats unhappy with an inexperienced nominee. He knocks obama out of the water in the debates when the issue of experience and foreign policy arise. When Obama's real and true platform is revealed it puts many of the republican leaning independents back in Mc Cains column. Both men run decent campaigns but Mc Cain is seen as the safer option in a post 9-11 world and defeats Obama by one point more than Bush defeated Kerry in 2004
Mc Cain 51%
Obama 47%
others 2%
This scenario assumes no one third party gets more than 1% which I know appears unlikely with Bloomberg/Paul/Nunn/Hagel
looming. with 4 percent between mc cain and obama the third party in my view would have to do very well to cut into mc cains support as a percentage of his support would come from independents that might vote for a third party. Obama looses his primary coalition of independents primarily over his lack of foreign policy and domestic record experience and national security concerns raised successfully by Mc Cain who has been in the senate for over 20 years depite the call for change people remain concerned for there security
Version: 13
Ron Paul is a crazy nut.
That being said I am too for making this map! Lol all in fun
Best case scenario for a third party run which I do feel in my gut will happen. It will be interesting to see how much more money he can raise and if he'll turn into a Perot or do even better and actually carry states. I dont think he would carry states in all actuality but if he did he would draw strength from the west and plains with his libertarian anti government/establishment views enough to spoil the republican vote? Will see
Hillary Clinton 41%
Mike Huckabee 33%
Ron Paul 25%
Others 1%
Happy New Year Hillary 2008!!
Version: 11
A Holiday Gift to my fellow Democrats:
Clinton-Obama 52%
Romney-Gingrich 43%
Paul-Hagel 4%
Other parties 1%
In this scenario there is an attempt to unite both parties. Clinton chooses Obama with the idea he can bring new ideas and a fresh face to the table with her experience it seems to balance out the ticket. She does this with great fear of a double minority ticket and the unlikeability factor it is a major risk but she feels it can work. The republican party is horribly divided among three candidates. MC Cain Romney and Huckabee Romney barely edges Huckabee for the nomination by just 15 extra delegates to win. There is major uprest and the convention is chaos. In an attempt to find someone that could possibly pull the party together, a major known leader he chooses Newt Gingrich as his running mate trying to pull the party together what he doesnt bargin for is how unliked Newt is with the general electorate. The race quickly turns into his running mates baggage before his eyes. Clinton is able capitalize on this with Obama playing Mr Nice Guy on the side. Clinton paints Romney as inexperienced and indecisive Newt pulls the ticket to the right on many social issues. In the end its a landslide despite the fact there are two minorities on the democratic ticket.
I know this is just a dream so analyze accordingly just a holiday gift to all my dem friends and to my republican friends sometimes you dont always get what you want at the Holidays *President Hillary Rodham Clinton*
Version: 10
A lookback at 1976
Here's what the race of 1976 would look like with the current electoral vote if it were held today. Notice the vast differences in the electoral patterns and the closeness of the race (hopefully I have most of this correct if not im sorry look it up on the atlas) If President Ford had won Ohio and Wisconsin there would have been no President Carter and possibly no President... I have a great deal of respect for Mr Ford and his wife who became Californians after he left office. He was the last truly moderate Republican President. It was revealed by close sources at the time and after his death that he was very concerned as to the direction of his party and the influence of the christian right and such leaders as Falwell Robertson and others. He reflected and came to the conclusion had he won the 1976 he would have kept his party socially moderate and fiscally conservative and not taken the party to the neo conservative status it occupies today. These were his comments not mine. Mr Ford in later years became very socially moderate and came to support the struggle for gay rights for which I am greatful. I cant help but wonder had he won this race How would all that been affected and where would politics be today?
Version: 9
Hillary Rodham Clinton Vs Willard Mitt Romney
Updated Slaughtering for Romney based on popular request I have decided Virginia is a toss up and possible win for dems I still can not add any other states as I still believe Republicans would prevail narrowly
Version: 8
Anyone wanna play guess the candidates, No Hillary is not on the ballot
Version: 7
Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney
I believe obama has some great ideas for this country and has his heart in the right place but i also think he would get trounced by any republican in the general election. I dont think he has the skill and calculation to fight against the republican attack machine. This is why I believe Hillary is more electable. Barack may not be as polarizing but the republicans would pounce on him before he even knew what hit him. The above scenario is against in my view the weakest republican in the field. If the nominee were Guiliani or Mc Cain I think they pick up Wisconsin and Oregon
Version: 6
Ohio Ohio Ohio who needs ohio when you got Arkansas. Hillary Rodham Clinton vs any one besides Huckabee who I believe would carry Arkansas. Although, I believe that she will carry more battleground states I have given her the bare minimum to prove an electoral edge I believe is present. Above are all the states won by both Al Gore (who should be laughing at the people who voted against him) and John Kerry in 2000 and 2004 with just the addition of Arkansas to make 270 As I indicated before I believe she will carry at least a few more states than this map shows.
Version: 5
Hillary Rodham Clinton vs Mike Huckabee in this scenario Clinton would loose her homestate of Arkansas. I believe Huckabee would carry Iowa and Missouri with many hometown evangelical voters tipping those states I believe he would have a hard time in the Pacific and parts of the south west as many voters out there remain very socially moderate and independent thinking and prefer to keep church and state limited At this point Ohio remains a toss up as always but i believe at the end of the Day Hillary will be successful in painting Huckabee as out of touch with the main stream. He will attempt to run on the same Christian values as Bush Cheney but lack of experience against the better suited Clinton will be his ultimate downfall along with some ultra conservative views on social issues Pop vote 50 /48 Clinton
Ohio 50/48 Clinton
Version: 4
George W Bush is not restricted by term limits and decides to run for a third term. He wins texas by less than one point. Indiana South Carolina and even Mississippi are close. Despite the displacement of African American voters his approval rating in Louisiana sucks so im giving it to the dems South Dakota is the dems closest state win by under 1000-votes. Damn i hate this man!! lol
Version: 3
I still may need to subtract a few states
In this scenario George W Bush is not restricted by term limits and decides to run for a third term as president against any of the top leading democrats. This is not an october suprise but a november feast for democrats!
Updated: I have added a few more states into the democratic Any other states i should add? This is fun I HATE him!!
Version: 2
Hillary Clinton is elected with 50 percent of the popular vote and a solid strong lead in the electoral vote despite early perceptions of being a polarizing figure and being unelectable. The republican ticket is hurt by the incumbent president and his failed policies and his endorsement. She goes on to become the first female president of the united states.
Version: 1
Hillary Clinton is elected the next president of the United States with 50 percent of the national popular vote and a solid lead in the electoral college despite perceptions of being a polarizing unelectable candidate and will go on to be the First Female President of the United States
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