Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:22

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	349
Rep	189
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	160
Ind	0
Tos	87

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+97	0	0	0	20	2	252	+97
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-97	23	3	189	-97
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
98	48	44	4	2

Analysis

Alabama: McCain 59, Obama 40, Other 1
Alaska: McCain 56, Obama 42, Other 2
Arizona: McCain 51, Obama 48, Other 1
Arkansas: McCain 54, Obama 45, Other 1
California: Obama 60, McCain 37, Other 3
Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 47, Other 1
Connecticut: Obama 58, McCain 40, Other 2
Delaware: Obama 61, McCain 37, Other 1
DC: Obama 90, McCain 8, Other 2
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 48, Other 1
Georgia: McCain 51, Obama 47, Other 2
Hawaii: Obama 66, McCain 32, Other 2
Idaho: McCain 62, Obama 36, Other 2
Illinois: Obama 60, McCain 39, Other 1
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 48, Other 1
Iowa: Obama 55, McCain 43, Other 2
Kansas: McCain 57, Obama 41, Other 2
Kentucky: McCain 55, Obama 43, Other 2
Louisiana: McCain 56, Obama 43, Other 1
Maine: Obama 56, McCain 42, Other 2
Maryland: Obama 60, McCain 38, Other 2
Massachusetts: Obama 61, McCain 37, Other 2
Michigan: Obama 55, McCain 44, Other 1
Minnesota: Obama 55, McCain 43, Other 2
Mississippi: McCain 54, Obama 45, Other 1
Missouri: Obama <50, McCain 49, Other 1
Montana: McCain <50, Obama 47, Other 3
Nebraska: McCain 59, Obama 39, Other 2
Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 46, Other 3
New Hampshire: Obama 54, McCain 45, Other 1
New Jersey: Obama 57, McCain 42, Other 1
New Mexico: Obama 54, McCain 45, Other 1
New York: Obama 62, McCain 36, Other 2
North Carolina: McCain <50, Obama 49, Other 1
North Dakota: McCain 50, Obama 48, Other 2
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 48, Other 1
Oklahoma: McCain 64, Obama 35, Other 1
Oregon: Obama 56, McCain 42, Other 2
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 46, Other 1
Rhode Island: Obama 60, McCain 38, Other 2
South Carolina: McCain 55, Obama 44, Other 1
South Dakota: McCain 54, Obama 44, Other 2
Tennessee: McCain 56, Obama 43, Other 1
Texas: McCain 55, Obama 44, Other 1
Utah: McCain 59, Obama 37, Other 4
Vermont: Obama 63, McCain 34, Other 3
Virginia: Obama 52, McCain 47, Other 1
Washington: Obama 56, McCain 42, Other 2
West Virginia: McCain 55, Obama 44, Other 1
Wisconsin: Obama 55, McCain 44, Other 1
Wyoming: McCain 61, Obama 37, Other 2

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 5

this with a projection of an Obama victory in the nationwide PV by about 3.5-4%.

Version: 2

still Obama v. McCain... Obama will play well in the Plains and Mountain West and keep McCain under 60% pretty much everywhere. Obama's troubles among working class and industrial whites are well-documented and this will be an issue in MI, OH, and PA, which are all tossups, to varying degrees.

Version: 1

very preliminary. presuming Obama vs. McCain.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	3	1	205	T	305
2022 Governor	31/36	25/36	56/72	77.8%	2	1	158	T	272
2020 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%	7	7	480	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	18/35	48/70	68.6%	6	4	337	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	3	36	51	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	24/35	56/70	80.0%	7	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	6	3	18	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	11	40	T	149
2016 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	19	1	440	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	17/34	47/68	69.1%	10	23	213	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	6/12	14/24	58.3%	2	33	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	1	3	60	T	382
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	5	47	182	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	23/52	11/52	34/104	32.7%	16	-	137	T	231
2010 Senate	31/37	16/37	47/74	63.5%	2	99	280	T	456
2008 President	52/56	46/56	98/112	87.5%	22	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	13	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	5	1	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	92	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	16	1	10	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	31/36	65/72	90.3%	13	1	1	T	312
2004 President	56/56	41/56	97/112	86.6%	52	1	24	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	672/757	480/757	1152/1514	76.1%

Links

Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home