Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	349
Rep	189
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	286
Rep	163
Ind	0
Tos	89

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+97	0	0	0	20	2	252	+97
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-97	23	3	189	-97
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
92	48	39	4	1

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 7

Probably time to update this.

Version: 6

I'm changing Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin to Lean Obama, as McCain hasn't led any polls in them in months. I'm also flipping Nevada to McCain, but downgrading Montana to Lean.

Version: 4

Changes:

Nevada - Polls aren't showing the GOP candidates doing too bad here, even Romney. I forgot the Mormon factor. As bad of a candidate as he is (and I think he'll be the nominee) that'll probably save him here. Toss Up D to Toss Up R

Kentucky - A new poll showing it rather close. Lean R to Toss Up R

Version: 3

KY - I doubt that new SUSA poll is right, but something is up here. I'll put it at Lean R, a Democrat winning it is POSSIBLE at least.

AR - Yeah I'll catch holy hell from the "Every election will be like 2004 forever!" crowd for this, but Hillary has a huge lead, all the other candidates should do better than Kerry, and the GOP bench is pretty bad for the state, and it's a fundamentally Democratic state still. Lean D.

Version: 2

Just tweaking things a bit.

Version: 1

Not that this means anything at the current time.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	35/35	29/35	64/70	91.4%	1	1	7	T	305
2022 Governor	36/36	26/36	62/72	86.1%	1	1	23	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	7	48	T	118
2020 President	50/56	41/56	91/112	81.3%	2	10	359	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	22/35	52/70	74.3%	2	4	194	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	7	147	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	16/35	48/70	68.6%	1	4	306	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	2	3	94	T	372
2016 President	49/56	30/56	79/112	70.5%	4	1	280	T	678
2016 Senate	29/34	18/34	47/68	69.1%	1	2	213	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	4/12	12/24	50.0%	1	2	164	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	6	8	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	22/36	54/72	75.0%	2	1	138	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	13/36	42/72	58.3%	4	1	211	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	2	1	T	153
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	3	0	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	4	0	11	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	0	5	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	18/52	63/104	60.6%	28	-	27	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	22/37	56/74	75.7%	16	1	116	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	9	1	91	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	17	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	40/56	92/112	82.1%	13	1	178	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	23/33	56/66	84.8%	8	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	6	1	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	45/52	27/52	72/104	69.2%	17	-	7	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	30/49	11/49	41/98	41.8%	16	-	91	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	2	159	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	19	1	65	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	17/36	51/72	70.8%	26	1	122	T	312
2004 President	49/56	37/56	86/112	76.8%	7	21	591	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	882/985	587/985	1469/1970	74.6%

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